Yesterday (30 November 2025) marked the three year anniversary of the public launch of ChatGPT, an app that has since become almost synonymous with generative artificial intelligence (AI) and has driven a stock market boom in the process.
Those three years have seen AI stocks rocket to the top of the stock market agenda, and no publicly-listed company has embodied this rise more than Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA). The chip design behemoth’s revenue has increased tenfold in that time, becoming the first company in history to be worth $4 trillion, then (briefly) $5 trillion.
“ChatGPT has fundamentally shifted the investment landscape,” said Victoria Scholar, head of investment at Interactive Investor. “Its birth and proliferation have fuelled investor excitement around how AI can enhance all corners of the economy.
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“Public companies that have adopted and run with AI have been rewarded and those who have not have been punished. Companies that have positioned themselves at the heart of the AI revolution have benefitted with skyrocketing share prices,” Scholar added.
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OpenAI, the developer behind ChatGPT, is arguably the main driver underpinning this stock market revolution. While its shares are currently unavailable to buy directly for most retail investors, OpenAI still has the ability to shift the entire stock market through its announcements. This has been clearer than ever in the third year following ChatGPT’s public launch.
Nvidia’s shares gained 3.9% on 22 September following news of a deal that would see Nvidia invest up to $100 billion into OpenAI incrementally, in return for the ChatGPT-maker deploying up to 10GB of Nvidia’s hardware.
Oracle’s (NASDAQ:ORCL) stock gained 36% on 10 September following an announcement that OpenAI was planning to spend $300 billion on its computing infrastructure. But shares in Oracle fell by 30% in the month to 13 November as doubts emerged over the feasibility of these commitments.
Profits are a concern after three years of ChatGPT
While OpenAI is arguably more influential than ever, questions over the long-term economics of its business, which ultimately hinges on ChatGPT, have been asked increasingly loudly during ChatGPT’s third year.
Analysis from HSBC Global Investment Research indicates that OpenAI won’t be profitable by 2030, eight years after ChatGPT’s launch, despite assuming that its user base rises from 10% of the world’s adult population (excluding China) to 44% during that time.
The analysis suggests that OpenAI’s cumulative free cash flow and other sources of income (such as cash injections from Nvidia) will fall $207 billion short of its costs, largely computing requirements, over the period.
These numbers assume that OpenAI’s revenue will increase from around $12 billion in 2025 to $214 billion in 2030. That is the first year in which HSBC expects OpenAI’s revenue to outweigh its annual cloud compute costs (which it estimates at $207 billion in 2030, up from $193 billion the year before).
It is these kinds of calculations that are spurring fears of an AI bubble bursting. While Nvidia’s earnings have undoubtedly ballooned since the launch of ChatGPT three years ago, the future growth that many expect it to post won’t materialise if one of its biggest customers is unable to sustain its spending.
Will OpenAI IPO?
While OpenAI is still a private company, there is increasing speculation that it could be set to list on public markets – indeed, its need for cash to fund its infrastructure spending commitments could hurry this along.
Reuters reported on 29 October that OpenAI was lining up an IPO that could value the company as high as $1 trillion, citing three unnamed people familiar with the matter.
The report claimed that the IPO could take place as soon as the second half of 2026, and was expected to raise a minimum of $60 billion.
The timing and valuations are of course subject to change, but if the $1 trillion figure is realised it would represent a near-doubling of OpenAI’s latest valuation. Earlier in October, the company raised $6.6 billion at a $500 billion valuation.
However, Dan Moczulski, UK managing director at eToro, does not believe that an IPO is the natural next step for OpenAI.
“Their focus is likely to be on building a more profitable and sustainable business model, which could include new ways to monetise the free versions of ChatGPT, such as advertising,” he said. “Their technology now sits at the centre of so many industries, including finance, that long-term stability will matter far more than rushing into the public markets.”
