The riskiest election in US history
Donald Trump’s illness has rattled markets as investors try to understand the implications of an incapacitated American president or a bitterly contested election.

US stock indices shrugged off news of Donald Trump’s hospitalisation over the weekend. The S&P 500 hit a one-month high as Trump was discharged on Monday. Yet the early optimism was undone when Trump ordered an end to talks with Democrats on a second stimulus bill. The S&P 500 finished Tuesday down by 1.4%.
The first stimulus bill lapsed over the summer, leaving unemployed Americans to depend on a patchwork of measures rolled out by the White House and individual states. The Democrat-controlled House of Representatives had initially called for $3.4trn in new support measures before reducing its demand to $2.2trn last week, while the Republican-controlled Senate favoured a figure closer to $1.6trn.
Would equities prefer Biden?
Trump’s surprise announcement that he would ask Republican allies to stop negotiating a stimulus will please fiscal conservatives wary of ever more federal spending, says the BBC’s Anthony Zurcher. Yet it is difficult to see how this benefits Trump politically. A new wave of economic angst before the election will do the incumbent no favours.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE

Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
The odds of a Joe Biden victory leapt over the weekend in betting markets, says Irwin Stelzer in The Sunday Times. That could be good for stocks, which “abhor uncertainty” when Trump is “uncertainty incarnate”. JPMorgan and Citigroup argue that a Biden presidency will be bullish for shares. They say it could deliver an economic “sugar high” from stimuli, especially if Democrats also take the Senate, as is looking increasingly likely.
In reality, investors are broadly agnostic about who prevails in November, Scott Knapp of CUNA Mutual Group tells the Associated Press. “It’s pretty difficult to overstate how understated the market’s reaction was,” to the president’s Covid-19 diagnosis. Investors don’t care for Donald Trump’s trade wars, but they seem just as unexcited about Joe Biden’s tax and regulate agenda. What does scare them is the prospect of a disputed election.
The president is unwell
Most presidential health scares make little impact on markets, but there have been exceptions, says Lex in the Financial Times. Eisenhower’s heart attack in 1955 saw the S&P 500 fall by nearly 7%, while it dropped by 3% following JFK’s assassination in 1963. Yet three months later – and this applies to nine out of ten pre-Trump health incidents – the market was either up or down by less than 1%. (The exception was Truman’s 1952 hospitalisation.) That is a testament to the strength of America’s institutions, which do not depend upon the health of one man.
Trump’s illness may have a larger impact than usual as it could shape US pandemic policy, says Jeremy Warner in The Daily Telegraph. Yet all this fretting about the election and American democracy seems overdone. Investors may complain about Washington, but they still buy the dollar and that says a lot more than words alone.
Sign up for MoneyWeek's newsletters
Get the latest financial news, insights and expert analysis from our award-winning MoneyWeek team, to help you understand what really matters when it comes to your finances.
Simon Wilson’s first career was in book publishing, as an economics editor at Routledge, and as a publisher of non-fiction at Random House, specialising in popular business and management books. While there, he published Customers.com, a bestselling classic of the early days of e-commerce, and The Money or Your Life: Reuniting Work and Joy, an inspirational book that helped inspire its publisher towards a post-corporate, portfolio life.
Since 2001, he has been a writer for MoneyWeek, a financial copywriter, and a long-time contributing editor at The Week. Simon also works as an actor and corporate trainer; current and past clients include investment banks, the Bank of England, the UK government, several Magic Circle law firms and all of the Big Four accountancy firms. He has a degree in languages (German and Spanish) and social and political sciences from the University of Cambridge.
-
Five years on: what did Covid cost us?
We’re still counting the costs of the global coronavirus pandemic – and governments’ responses. What did we learn?
By Simon Wilson Published
-
New tax year changes: how much will you have to pay in 2025/26?
The new tax year will start on 6 April, 2025. We look at how taxes and allowances are changing and how they will affect you.
By Holly Thomas Published
-
Five years on: what did Covid cost us?
We’re still counting the costs of the global coronavirus pandemic – and governments’ responses. What did we learn?
By Simon Wilson Published
-
Will Trump force the Fed to lower interest rates?
Opinion Markets are ignoring the risk that Donald Trump forces the central bank into reckless interest rate cuts
By Cris Sholto Heaton Published
-
London can lure Brexit-fleeing banks back to UK – but the City must move quickly
Opinion Many banks fled to Paris in the wake of Brexit but are now in full-scale retreat. The City should move quickly to lure them back, says Matthew Lynn
By Matthew Lynn Published
-
Protests erupt in Turkey after the arrest of president Erdogan's rival
Turkey's president has jailed his main political opponent, Ekrem Imamoglu
By Emily Hohler Published
-
What is the Mar-a-Lago Accord and why is it getting attention from Wall Street?
On Wall Street, there is talk that Trump's tariffs aim to make the world’s leaders come crawling to Mar-a-Lago, his Florida residence
By Alex Rankine Published
-
Spring Statement: Rachel Reeves 'must turn good intentions into effective measures'
Opinion Chancellor Rachel Reeves understands the economy’s structural problems but is unlikely to solve them, says Max King
By Max King Published
-
England's department stores return – but do they have a future?
Opinion The great traditional retail shops of Middle England have bounced back for now. Don’t get too carried away though, says Matthew Lynn
By Matthew Lynn Published
-
Can investors stay optimistic about Russian stocks?
Investors look to profit from Russia as Trump pushes for peace in Ukraine. But is it worth the risk?
By Alex Rankine Published