When will the ONS release July’s inflation data?
The Office for National Statistics will release the inflation data at 7am tomorrow (19 August).
Key macroeconomic data like this was previously released at 9.30am, but the earlier release time was trialled then kept permanent during the Covid-19 pandemic.
The ONS says the earlier publishing time “increases the visibility and timely explanation” of its statistics through the media.
Food price rises slow
UK grocery inflation slowed to 2.1% in the four weeks to 9 August 2026, down from 2.6% in the four weeks to July 12 2026, according to the latest report from market researcher Worldpanel by Numerator.
It means food price inflation is at its lowest rate since October 2024 and prices have slowed for the fifth consecutive month.
The cost of food in the UK has fallen in recent weeks, according to market research firm Worldpanel by Numerator
What are the predictions for the July inflation data?
Research firm Pantheon Macroeconomics believes CPI inflation will rise by 2.9% in July, in part because of a rise in domestic energy bills.
The Ofgem price cap rose by 13% on 1 July, seeing the average annual bill rise to £1,862 for a household on a dual-fuel tariff paying by direct debit.
Robert Wood, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the firm expected services inflation to slow to 3.4% in July, from 3.6% in June.
“Lower services inflation partly offsets the inflation boost from energy, as well as an uptick in goods inflation,” said Wood. “Lower services inflation is likely to be driven by temporary factors that will unwind over the summer.”
Economists at Deutsche Bank UK also believe inflation will read 2.9%, with core CPI, which strips out food and energy prices, to come in at 2.5%, down from 2.6% in June.
What is the current rate of inflation?
The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) measure of inflation rose by 2.6% in the 12 months to June 2026, according to the latest available data from the Office for National Statistics.
This was a drop from 2.8% in the 12 months to May 2026.
While the annualised CPI inflation rate fell in June, this doesn’t mean prices were lower – simply that they rose at a slower rate than over the 12 months to May.
Good afternoon and welcome to our live coverage ahead of the Office for National Statistics (ONS) releasing its latest inflation data tomorrow (19 August).
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Stay with us as we bring you rolling commentary about what to expect, as well as reaction and analysis after the data is published.