The biggest protests in more than a decade have “erupted” across Turkey after Ekrem Imamoglu, the mayor of Istanbul and main rival of president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, was arrested on 19 March, says Ben Hubbard in The New York Times.
The charismatic 54-year-old was jailed just hours before Turkey’s main opposition, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), designated him as their candidate in the next presidential election.
Imamoglu has been accused of corruption and backing the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, which is deemed a terrorist organisation, charges he denies. His university degree has also been annulled, which could disqualify him from a presidential bid.
MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Erdogan has a strong hand
This is no “simple internal crisis”, says Mark Almond in The Telegraph. Since the Arab Spring uprisings of 2011, Turkey, which has been pushing to join the EU for decades, is no longer a “supplicant of Brussels” but a “pivotal state with a big card to play” as Nato’s front line.
Erdogan plugs the border into the EU, preventing a “flood of refugees” from unstable countries. The rise of anti-immigrant Eurosceptic parties across Europe has increased the importance of this role. Countries including Germany, Sweden and Belgium also have large pro-Erdogan Turkish communities. Turning a “blind eye” to Erdogan’s domestic heavy-handedness is a “price worth paying” to keep the peace. The big question is whether the EU can afford to risk “alienating” Turkey’s next generation.
Erdogan has picked his moment well, says The Economist. As the US vacates the stage, Turkey’s army, the second largest in Nato, is “more vital than ever”. But the EU could take a tougher line. Greece and Bulgaria have strengthened their borders. Erdogan remains keen on EU membership. He would doubtless like Turkish firms to take part in the EU’s €150 billion ReArm Europe programme. Ultimately, however, only the Turkish people can prevent their country from becoming an autocracy.
Erdogan’s actions prompted a “sharp currency sell-off” due to fears of a return to “populist policies” such as “unsustainably low interest rates”, says Liam Proud on Breakingviews. The lira’s plunge could reverse falling inflation and foreign capital could take flight. There are economic as well as political questions at stake.
This article was first published in MoneyWeek's magazine. Enjoy exclusive early access to news, opinion and analysis from our team of financial experts with a MoneyWeek subscription.
-
How retirement pots risk running out 11 years early if inflation remains highPension savers could find their retirement income may not last as long as they anticipated over fears that inflation may not slow down
-
How extending stealth tax freeze would cancel out pensioners’ Winter Fuel Payment by 2030Pensioners relying on just the full new state pension face paying tax on their income within a few years, as the payment rises but thresholds remain frozen
-
Chen Zhi: the kingpin of a global conspiracyChen Zhi appeared to be a business prodigy investing in everything from real estate to airlines. Prosecutors allege he is the head of something more sinister
-
Canada will be a winner in this new era of deglobalisation and populismGreg Eckel, portfolio manager at Canadian General Investments, selects three Canadian stocks
-
Jim O’Neill on nearly 25 years of the BRICSJim O’Neill, who coined the acronym BRICS in 2001, tells MoneyWeek how the group is progressing
-
Build or innovate? How to solve the productivity puzzleOpinion There are two main schools of thought when it comes to solving the productivity puzzle, says David C. Stevenson
-
More clouds gather over renewable energy trusts – is there any hope for the sector?The outlook for renewable energy trusts has gone from bad to worse this year, with the industry being caught in a 'perfect storm'
-
Should ISA investors be forced to hold UK shares?The UK government would like ISA investors to hold more UK stocks – but many of us are already overexposed
-
Why Scotland's proposed government bonds are a terrible investmentOpinion Politicians in Scotland pushing for “kilts” think it will strengthen the case for independence and boost financial credibility. It's more likely to backfire
-
How Germany became the new sick man of EuropeFriedrich Merz, Germany's Keir Starmer, seems unable to tackle the deep-seated economic problems the country is facing. What happens next?
