Protests erupt in Turkey after the arrest of president Erdogan's rival

The biggest protests in more than a decade have “erupted” across Turkey after Ekrem Imamoglu, the mayor of Istanbul and main rival of president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, was arrested on 19 March, says Ben Hubbard in The New York Times.

The charismatic 54-year-old was jailed just hours before Turkey’s main opposition, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), designated him as their candidate in the next presidential election.

Imamoglu has been accused of corruption and backing the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, which is deemed a terrorist organisation, charges he denies. His university degree has also been annulled, which could disqualify him from a presidential bid.

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Erdogan has ruled Turkey for 22 years and, since changing the constitution in 2017, done so with “few checks on his authority”, says The Economist. He “controls the courts, the security apparatus and almost all the media”. However, until last week, Turkey remained a so-called “competitive authoritarian regime: a flawed multi-party democracy where the opposition can, in theory, win elections”.

Imamoglu’s arrest “marks a turning point”. Last year, his party beat Erdogan’s Justice and Development (AK) party in local elections. Imamoglu has led opinion polls for months, and his popularity “promised a chance of a democratic transfer of power” at the next election, due by 2028.

Erdogan has a strong hand

This is no “simple internal crisis”, says Mark Almond in The Telegraph. Since the Arab Spring uprisings of 2011, Turkey, which has been pushing to join the EU for decades, is no longer a “supplicant of Brussels” but a “pivotal state with a big card to play” as Nato’s front line.

Erdogan plugs the border into the EU, preventing a “flood of refugees” from unstable countries. The rise of anti-immigrant Eurosceptic parties across Europe has increased the importance of this role. Countries including Germany, Sweden and Belgium also have large pro-Erdogan Turkish communities. Turning a “blind eye” to Erdogan’s domestic heavy-handedness is a “price worth paying” to keep the peace. The big question is whether the EU can afford to risk “alienating” Turkey’s next generation.

Erdogan has picked his moment well, says The Economist. As the US vacates the stage, Turkey’s army, the second largest in Nato, is “more vital than ever”. But the EU could take a tougher line. Greece and Bulgaria have strengthened their borders. Erdogan remains keen on EU membership. He would doubtless like Turkish firms to take part in the EU’s €150 billion ReArm Europe programme. Ultimately, however, only the Turkish people can prevent their country from becoming an autocracy.

Erdogan’s actions prompted a “sharp currency sell-off” due to fears of a return to “populist policies” such as “unsustainably low interest rates”, says Liam Proud on Breakingviews. The lira’s plunge could reverse falling inflation and foreign capital could take flight. There are economic as well as political questions at stake.

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