Maduro clings to power in Venezuela – can he last?
While Maduro clung to his presidential seat, Venezuela's election protests paint a different picture
Nicolás Maduro’s regime “vowed to crush a burgeoning protest movement against election results that cement his grip on power”, amid growing evidence that he actually lost by a wide margin, say Kejal Vyas and Ryan Dubé in The Wall Street Journal. Official results have Maduro winning the election with 51% of the vote, but he has refused to release detailed data. The opposition claims that the regime has falsified the vote count and has provided evidence that they actually won by a landslide. There have been violent countrywide clashes between demonstrators and security forces.
Maduro wins another election
The claim that Maduro won the election “beggars belief” as he “is both unpopular and incompetent”, says The Economist. And little wonder. His predecessor, Hugo Chavez, had already impoverished a country that was once the richest in South America, but Maduro’s mismanagement over the last decade has prompted about a quarter of the population to emigrate. Despite Maduro’s regime banning one of the most appealing opposition leaders from running, Venezuelans “flocked to opposition rallies”. Maduro, meanwhile, had to rely on state workers being bussed in. Opinion polls gave a “huge lead” to the opposition.
The failure of Maduro and the country’s electoral authority to provide any evidence for his win, while the opposition claims they have evidence that they won a landslide victory, has left the authoritarian leader “with nowhere to hide”, says Catherine Ellis in The Spectator. Even normally sympathetic allies, such as Brazil, are demanding proof.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
But Maduro won’t fade away and he remains holed up in his presidential palace, “guarded by hundreds” of military personnel and police. Most shops and businesses are closed and “fears of what might happen next linger like dark clouds over the whole of the country”. There is talk of electricity cuts and food shortages.
Joe Biden’s bet fails to pay off
Even if Maduro manages to cling on to power, his supposed “election victory” will not solve his regime’s problems, says Michael Stott in the Financial Times. Muduro’s regime is shunned internationally, is under US, EU and UK sanctions and there are legal cases pending against him and his inner circle. The current crisis “presents the Biden administration with a dilemma”. Keen to “stem the flow” of Venezuelan refugees and “improve the supply of oil to global markets”, Washington had “bet heavily” on getting Maduro to hold a “competitive election in return for sanctions relief”. That bet now lies in “tatters”.
It was “probably naive” to believe that “an entrenched dictatorship could be replaced at the ballot box”, says The Times. Still, the international community now faces a “quandary of how best to reimpose or stiffen sanctions while enabling the flow of humanitarian aid”. The regime’s “sanctions-busting support” from other authoritarian states, including Russia, Cuba and Iran, are helping to keep it afloat. And “China was among the first to congratulate Maduro on his supposed victory”.
This article was first published in MoneyWeek's magazine. Enjoy exclusive early access to news, opinion and analysis from our team of financial experts with a MoneyWeek subscription.
Sign up to Money Morning
Our team, led by award winning editors, is dedicated to delivering you the top news, analysis, and guides to help you manage your money, grow your investments and build wealth.
Matthew graduated from the University of Durham in 2004; he then gained an MSc, followed by a PhD at the London School of Economics.
He has previously written for a wide range of publications, including the Guardian and the Economist, and also helped to run a newsletter on terrorism. He has spent time at Lehman Brothers, Citigroup and the consultancy Lombard Street Research.
Matthew is the author of Superinvestors: Lessons from the greatest investors in history, published by Harriman House, which has been translated into several languages. His second book, Investing Explained: The Accessible Guide to Building an Investment Portfolio, is published by Kogan Page.
As senior writer, he writes the shares and politics & economics pages, as well as weekly Blowing It and Great Frauds in History columns He also writes a fortnightly reviews page and trading tips, as well as regular cover stories and multi-page investment focus features.
Follow Matthew on Twitter: @DrMatthewPartri
-
Bitcoin price one of the most-asked questions on Alexa - here's how to buy the cryptocurrency
According to figures from Amazon, which cover September 2023 to November 2024, pop star Taylor Swift and Bitcoin were named among the most popular Alexa queries of 2024
By Chris Newlands Published
-
Investing for children this Christmas – five ideas
It might not come with a shiny ribbon, but an investment fund could be the gift that keeps on giving. We share five ideas if you are investing for children this Christmas.
By Katie Williams Published
-
Rouble hits two-year low against the dollar – what does it mean for Russia's economy?
New US sanctions have plunged the rouble to its lowest level since 2022. Why are investors spooked and how will this affect Putin's economy?
By Alex Rankine Published
-
Has Javier Milei succeeded in transforming Argentina's economy?
Javier Milei won an election last year on an “anarcho-capitalist” platform, promising to take a chainsaw to the overbearing and bloated state. How’s it going?
By Simon Wilson Published
-
Brazil booms – but why do investors remain wary?
Brazil is booming, but you wouldn’t think so from looking at the stock market. What's behind the market paranoia?
By Alex Rankine Published
-
German chancellor Olaf Scholz's coalition collapses – what went wrong?
EU Economy After Olaf Scholz fired a key minister, Germany's coalition has collapsed. But political turmoil in the country couldn’t have come at a worse time
By Emily Hohler Published
-
Are Chinese consumer brands challenging global chains?
A new wave of Chinese consumer brands is starting to push out into global markets. Complacent Western giants are not nearly ready for the threat that they pose
By Matthew Lynn Published
-
Do we need central banks, or is it time to privatise money?
Analysis Free banking is one alternative to central banks, but would switching to a radical new system be worth the risk?
By Stuart Watkins Published
-
Will turmoil in the Middle East trigger inflation?
The risk of an escalating Middle East crisis continues to rise. Markets appear to be dismissing the prospect. Here's how investors can protect themselves.
By Philip Pilkington Published
-
The Gulf states: a new competitor for the City's financial crown?
Bahrain and other Gulf states could eventually threaten London's financial dominance.
By Matthew Lynn Published