Israel conflict: the concerns of a wider war
Israel's raids into Lebanon have raised fears of a wider war
A day after the anniversary of the 7 October terrorist attack that killed 1,200 Israelis, the Middle East conflict intensified again when Israel deployed a fourth division of troops inside Lebanon, says Seb Starcevic for Politico. The move brings the likely total number of its soldiers in the country to more than 15,000, undercutting prior assurances only a week ago that the operation would be “limited” to “localised and targeted ground raids based on precise intelligence”. The escalation has heightened fears of a “wider regional war” between Israel and Iran and its proxies.
What will a wider spread of conflict mean for the world?
Until two weeks ago, most of the destruction had focused on an area close to the “blue line” that separates northern Israel from southern Lebanon, says Raya Jalabi in the Financial Times. Now, however, Israel has “dramatically intensified” its campaign and launched a “relentless barrage” of air strikes across the country.
Christian and Sunni areas, both of which are deeply opposed to the Shiite Hezbollah, as well as parts of Lebanon’s capital, have increasingly been caught in the crossfire, and more than 1.2 million people have been displaced (out of a total Lebanese population of roughly 5.5 million) and 2,000 killed. However destructive, the war is nothing compared with the devastation Hezbollah has itself inflicted on Lebanon, says Bret Stephens in The New York Times.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
The group claims to be a “Lebanese resistance” force, but it is actually an “Iranian occupation force” that has “repeatedly, and often violently, imposed its will on the country’s elected leadership”. As well as helping to assassinate Lebanon’s former prime minister, it has “dragged the country into ruinous wars with Israel”, turning Lebanese civilians into “human shields” and establishing “lucrative sidelines in drug trafficking, weapons smuggling and money laundering”. Indeed, Lebanon “is no longer truly a state”, says Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid in The Economist.
Hezbollah’s ruthless actions have left the country with a “ruined” economy and “rampant” food inflation. Nine in 10 children do not receive regular meals, and electricity and water are available “only a few hours a day”. Lebanon will “never recover” for as long as Hezbollah maintains its control, so the only way ahead is to “shatter its military power and the intimidation effect it creates within Lebanese society”. At the same time the world “needs to invest the necessary resources in reorganising Lebanon’s political structure and, importantly, rebuilding its army”.
Israel’s incursion into Lebanon puts it “on the cusp of a dilemma”, says Marcus Walker in The Wall Street Journal. Air strikes and limited ground raids are unlikely to be enough to end the threat from Hezbollah, yet occupying significant amounts of territory inside Lebanon “could give Hezbollah the opportunity to fight a protracted insurgency against the Israeli army”. Israel needs to learn from the experiences of the two other major Israeli invasions of southern Lebanon, in 1978 and 2006 – both of which inflicted “substantial damage” on Lebanon, but “didn’t achieve lasting security gains”.
This article was first published in MoneyWeek's magazine. Enjoy exclusive early access to news, opinion and analysis from our team of financial experts with a MoneyWeek subscription.
Sign up to Money Morning
Our team, led by award winning editors, is dedicated to delivering you the top news, analysis, and guides to help you manage your money, grow your investments and build wealth.
Matthew graduated from the University of Durham in 2004; he then gained an MSc, followed by a PhD at the London School of Economics.
He has previously written for a wide range of publications, including the Guardian and the Economist, and also helped to run a newsletter on terrorism. He has spent time at Lehman Brothers, Citigroup and the consultancy Lombard Street Research.
Matthew is the author of Superinvestors: Lessons from the greatest investors in history, published by Harriman House, which has been translated into several languages. His second book, Investing Explained: The Accessible Guide to Building an Investment Portfolio, is published by Kogan Page.
As senior writer, he writes the shares and politics & economics pages, as well as weekly Blowing It and Great Frauds in History columns He also writes a fortnightly reviews page and trading tips, as well as regular cover stories and multi-page investment focus features.
Follow Matthew on Twitter: @DrMatthewPartri
-
The best houses for sale with wildflower meadows
The best houses for sale with wildflower meadows – from a 1770s mill house in Petersfield, Hampshire, to a cottage in Fittleworth, West Sussex
By Natasha Langan Published
-
Will a Santa Rally bring festive cheer to investor portfolios this year?
Investors will be hoping for a seasonal stock market boost in December
By Marc Shoffman Published
-
Has Javier Milei succeeded in transforming Argentina's economy?
Javier Milei won an election last year on an “anarcho-capitalist” platform, promising to take a chainsaw to the overbearing and bloated state. How’s it going?
By Simon Wilson Published
-
Brazil booms – but why do investors remain wary?
Brazil is booming, but you wouldn’t think so from looking at the stock market. What's behind the market paranoia?
By Alex Rankine Published
-
German chancellor Olaf Scholz's coalition collapses – what went wrong?
EU Economy After Olaf Scholz fired a key minister, Germany's coalition has collapsed. But political turmoil in the country couldn’t have come at a worse time
By Emily Hohler Published
-
Are Chinese consumer brands challenging global chains?
A new wave of Chinese consumer brands is starting to push out into global markets. Complacent Western giants are not nearly ready for the threat that they pose
By Matthew Lynn Published
-
Will turmoil in the Middle East trigger inflation?
The risk of an escalating Middle East crisis continues to rise. Markets appear to be dismissing the prospect. Here's how investors can protect themselves.
By Philip Pilkington Published
-
The Gulf states: a new competitor for the City's financial crown?
Bahrain and other Gulf states could eventually threaten London's financial dominance.
By Matthew Lynn Published
-
Working from home: is it working?
While Labour plans to make working from home the legal default, some employers are calling workers back into the office. What does the future hold?
By Simon Wilson Published
-
Why did Britain give the Chagos Islands back?
What is the deal with the Chagos Islands and what role do the Tories play?
By Emily Hohler Published