In this week’s magazine, we’re looking at economic and investment cycles. As John said in yesterday’s Money Morning, you can’t use them to time your entrances and exits into a market, but they can be a valuable tool for investors. Akhil Patel revisits the theme he wrote about in MoneyWeek in 2014 – that economies and markets are driven by an 18-year cycle based on land and property values. It’s a compelling read – subscribe to MoneyWeek here (and get your first six issues free) if you haven’t already done so.
This week’s “Too Embarrassed To Ask” video explains what “options” are. You can watch that here.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Merryn’s pulled another big hitter out of the bag as a guest on this week’s podcast – historian and author Professor Niall Ferguson. He talks to Merryn about the unpredictability of disaster and how we’ll never be prepared for it. Plus, he gives his views on bitcoin (he’s a fan), Covid restrictions and our possible descent into a total surveillance society. Find out what he has to say here.
Here are the links for this week’s editions of Money Morning and other web articles you may have missed:
- Monday Money Morning: Here’s why investors were happy with Friday’s US employment data
- Tuesday Money Morning: What China’s war on tech firms means for investors
- Merryn’s blog: If a company is cheap enough for private equity, why isn’t it cheap enough for everyone else?
- Wednesday Money Morning: Commodity supercycle or not, here’s a metal that’ll still be in demand – tin
Web article: What’s driving the oil price volatility, and where could it go next?
- Thursday Money Morning: It’s a tug of war between reflation and deflation – who will win?
- Web article: Ether price looks set to climb as network “hard fork” approaches
- Friday Money Morning: The real value to investors of cycle theories
- Web article: British fintech Wise has hit the market. Should you invest?
- Crypto roundup: $100bn wiped off crypto market value in one day
Now for the charts of the week.
The charts that matter
Gold started to climb back up after its big fall.
(Gold: three months)
The US dollar index (DXY – a measure of the strength of the dollar against a basket of the currencies of its major trading partners) climbed higher.
(DXY: three months)
The Chinese yuan (or renminbi) reflected the dollar’s strength, weakening a little (when the red line is rising, the dollar is strengthening while the yuan is weakening).
(Chinese yuan to the US dollar: since 25 Jun 2019)
After seeming to settle last week, the yield on the ten-year US government bond dived lower again.
(Ten-year US Treasury yield: three months)
The yield on the Japanese ten-year bond reversed last week’s gains.
(Ten-year Japanese government bond yield: three months)
And the yield on the ten-year German Bund fell back to its level of three months ago.
(Ten-year Bund yield: three months)
Copper drifted lower – just a breather or have investors given up on the Great Reflation?
(Copper: nine months)
The closely-related Aussie dollar resumed its slide.
(Aussie dollar vs US dollar exchange rate: three months)
Bitcoin drifted lower.
(Bitcoin: three months)
US weekly initial jobless claims rose slightly, up by 2,000 to 373,000, revised up from 364,000. The four-week moving average fell, however, down 250 to 394,500.
(US initial jobless claims, four-week moving average: since Jan 2020)
The oil price paused for breath – but that might not be the end of its bull run.
(Brent crude oil: three months)
Amazon took another big jump.
(Amazon: three months)
While Tesla fell back, with a little rally towards the end of the week.
(Tesla: three months)
Have a great weekend.
Ben studied modern languages at London University's Queen Mary College. After dabbling unhappily in local government finance for a while, he went to work for The Scotsman newspaper in Edinburgh. The launch of the paper's website, scotsman.com, in the early years of the dotcom craze, saw Ben move online to manage the Business and Motors channels before becoming deputy editor with responsibility for all aspects of online production for The Scotsman, Scotland on Sunday and the Edinburgh Evening News websites, along with the papers' Edinburgh Festivals website.
Ben joined MoneyWeek as website editor in 2008, just as the Great Financial Crisis was brewing. He has written extensively for the website and magazine, with a particular emphasis on alternative finance and fintech, including blockchain and bitcoin. As an early adopter of bitcoin, Ben bought when the price was under $200, but went on to spend it all on foolish fripperies.
House prices are falling in London but how does it compare to the rest of the UK?
Advice The capital remains the most expensive part of the UK to buy a property, but it isn’t being as badly hit by the housing market slump. Where are London house prices heading?
By Marc Shoffman Published
Will a Santa Rally provide festive cheer for investors this year?
News Equities often get a seasonal boost during December - will there be a Santa Rally in 2023?
By Marc Shoffman Published
UK wages grow at a record pace
The latest UK wages data will add pressure on the BoE to push interest rates even higher.
By Nicole García Mérida Published
Trapped in a time of zombie government
It’s not just companies that are eking out an existence, says Max King. The state is in the twilight zone too.
By Max King Published
America is in deep denial over debt
The downgrade in America’s credit rating was much criticised by the US government, says Alex Rankine. But was it a long time coming?
By Alex Rankine Published
UK economy avoids stagnation with surprise growth
Gross domestic product increased by 0.2% in the second quarter and by 0.5% in June
By Pedro Gonçalves Published
Bank of England raises interest rates to 5.25%
The Bank has hiked rates from 5% to 5.25%, marking the 14th increase in a row. We explain what it means for savers and homeowners - and whether more rate rises are on the horizon
By Ruth Emery Published
UK wage growth hits a record high
Stubborn inflation fuels wage growth, hitting a 20-year record high. But unemployment jumps
By Vaishali Varu Published
UK inflation remains at 8.7% ‒ what it means for your money
Inflation was unmoved at 8.7% in the 12 months to May. What does this ‘sticky’ rate of inflation mean for your money?
By John Fitzsimons Published
VICE bankruptcy: how did it happen?
Was the VICE bankruptcy inevitable? We look into how the once multibillion-dollar came crashing down.
By Jane Lewis Published