Has Covid-19 ushered in a new world order?

The coronavirus crisis will surely mean radical changes in global politics and economics, but predictions of the inevitable supremacy of China or the collapse of the US look overblown.

Chinese President Xi Jinping © Xinhua/Shutterstock
The rest of the world isn’t applauding Chinese president Xi Jinping’s handing of the crisis © Shutterstock
(Image credit: Chinese President Xi Jinping © Xinhua/Shutterstock)

What’s happened?

Predictions about how the present crisis will affect geopolitics have become almost as volatile as the world’s gyrating financial markets. In January and February, as the new coronavirus began to spread in Hubei, a consensus began to build that this could be China’s “Chernobyl moment”, destroying the elite’s credibility and authority. Perhaps it was even the beginning of the end for the Chinese Communist Party, with strongly positive geopolitical consequences for the US and the broader West. “But then, almost as quickly, the predictions went into reverse,” note Michael Green and Evan Medeiros of Georgetown University. As China appeared to contain the spread and the virus moved on to Europe and the US, it quickly became accepted that the coming global recession, and the absence of clear US leadership, would mean a “geopolitical reordering that would leave China as the victor”, perhaps even a “Suez moment” for the US.

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Simon Wilson’s first career was in book publishing, as an economics editor at Routledge, and as a publisher of non-fiction at Random House, specialising in popular business and management books. While there, he published Customers.com, a bestselling classic of the early days of e-commerce, and The Money or Your Life: Reuniting Work and Joy, an inspirational book that helped inspire its publisher towards a post-corporate, portfolio life.   

Since 2001, he has been a writer for MoneyWeek, a financial copywriter, and a long-time contributing editor at The Week. Simon also works as an actor and corporate trainer; current and past clients include investment banks, the Bank of England, the UK government, several Magic Circle law firms and all of the Big Four accountancy firms. He has a degree in languages (German and Spanish) and social and political sciences from the University of Cambridge.