Predictions are a mug's game.
So instead of gazing into my crystal ball as tradition dictates at this time of year, I'm going to indulge in a bit of scenario planning. These aren't predictions. Instead, they're big things that might happen, and so they're worth thinking about.
If they do happen, I get bragging rights about flagging them up. If they don't happen, I say they were just "scenarios".
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
You see how this works? Behold my cake, which I have also eaten.
Anyway, today I'm going to start with four big risks for 2022. And then tomorrow, I'll look on the bright side with four big things that could go right.
But let's get you nice and gloomy first, with our "glass half-empty" ideas for 2022.
Half-empty No. 1: Covid just keeps coming back
As I said to Merryn in our final podcast of 2021, I'm not a great believer in pure psychology as an explanation for economic events. Psychology matters – I'm not saying it doesn't. But psychology is usually driven by "real" factors.
So for example, contrary to the impression economists sometimes give, recessions don't happen because people suddenly just stop spending money because they take a wild notion one day.
They stop spending money because they lose their job, or because bank lending dries up. That then feeds on itself. Psychology might well become negative, but there's a good reason for it – it's because people have no money.
So that means I've also been sceptical of the idea that Covid will leave massive psychological scars that will permanently change consumer behaviour. That has at least been proven true by the volume of consumer spending and investing this year. When people have money, it burns a hole in their pockets. Why else do you think so many Pelotons were sold during lockdown?
However, if people keep getting punched in the face every time they start to think that this Covid crisis is over, the risk is that it will have a long-term impact. Christmas 2020 was scrapped at the last minute, and for many people Christmas 2021 has been all-but scrapped.
If we keep having this stop-start re-opening, then the risk is that it persuades both individuals and businesses to back away from spending and investing in favour of hunkering down for the inevitable point at which governments no longer provide any support (ask your average restaurateur how they're feeling right now).
In terms of market impact, this would be painful. You'd probably have stubborn inflation (supply chains won't fix themselves if ports have to shut down every ten minutes), combined with weak growth (due to demand and supply dropping simultaneously), and increasing political instability due to voter anger. Even the promise of more central bank stimulus might not cheer markets sufficiently in this case.
Half-empty No. 2: The energy crisis eats up our excess savings
One of the biggest concerns for 2022 is energy prices. The basic story this year is that rising demand has combined with supply disruptions to give us exceptionally high energy prices, partly at the pump, but most obviously at the plug point.
Now, we're only just at the start of winter here in the UK (I know, it feels like it's been here a while, but the solstice was just the other day). If we're already seeing record-high prices for energy, what's going to happen over the next few months?
The risk is that every penny of those extra wages that workers have apparently been getting, ends up either in their petrol tanks or in their electricity meters. In effect, this is a massive tax which simultaneously acts as a short-term inflationary force, which in turn means central banks don't want to help out and governments are fearful of doing so because it puts the public finances under even more pressure.
So again, you've got something that weakens growth while also pushing up prices. Stagflation is one of the most investor-hostile economic backdrops out there. So let's hope it doesn't come to this.
Half-empty No. 3: China takes a chance
Putting it bluntly – and it's not something I like to say – Russia invading Ukraine (again) seems the most likely geopolitical hotspot right now. The grim reality on that one is that retaliation would be half-hearted and, as for markets, they would probably shrug it off after the usual initial panic blip.
(It's the brutal reality, borne out by countless analyst notes, that wars have often proved to be buying opportunities, as long as they are wars in far-off countries.)
However, the big geopolitical worry that everyone's had for a while is the idea that China might invade Taiwan. I have no idea how likely this is – if you want to go down the rabbit hole you could be on Google all week and you'd get hundreds of conflicting opinions from armchair generals.
But let's say it happened – that's terrifying. Either China and America would end up at war, or you'd have a scenario where the entire global order is left wondering: who's next? I find it hard to believe that a stockmarket crash wouldn't be inevitable in that situation.
Moreover, from a pure markets point of view, if you think the global chip shortage and supply-chain problems are bad now, you don't want to imagine what might happen if the world's top chip manufacturer is shut down by conflict. Clue: it's stagflationary.
Half-empty No. 4: Inflation really rips
No one is describing inflation as "transitory" any more, but central bankers still believe that it is. They reckon it's caused by short-term problems which will be ironed out just as soon as Covid goes away.
But as each of these gloomy scenarios points out, there is many a slip twixt cup and lip, and the idea that everything's just going to go back to normal any minute now is by no means guaranteed.
What if we start getting persistent inflation readings above 6% on both sides of the Atlantic? What if central banks can't do anything about it because they know that if rates go up beyond 2%, they'll bankrupt their nations? What if food prices stay high? What if raw materials prices don't come down?
What if workers get more and more fed up, and decide they want higher wages to compensate for the general instability around them? What if unions decide the time is ripe to make a new pitch for power?
Inflation and political instability feed off each other. It's not a comforting thought.
But please tune in tomorrow for the good news
So that's the gloomy take. I'm sure you can add your own thoughts, but the summary probably boils down to – stagflation and turmoil.
But don't worry – I have the "glass half-full" edition for you tomorrow, so put down that revolver and the whisky bottle (actually, you can hang on to the whisky bottle) and make sure you tune in at the same time tomorrow.
Happy 30th December!
John is the executive editor of MoneyWeek and writes our daily investment email, Money Morning. John graduated from Strathclyde University with a degree in psychology in 1996 and has always been fascinated by the gap between the way the market works in theory and the way it works in practice, and by how our deep-rooted instincts work against our best interests as investors.
He started out in journalism by writing articles about the specific business challenges facing family firms. In 2003, he took a job on the finance desk of Teletext, where he spent two years covering the markets and breaking financial news. John joined MoneyWeek in 2005.
His work has been published in Families in Business, Shares magazine, Spear's Magazine, The Sunday Times, and The Spectator among others. He has also appeared as an expert commentator on BBC Radio 4's Today programme, BBC Radio Scotland, Newsnight, Daily Politics and Bloomberg. His first book, on contrarian investing, The Sceptical Investor, was released in March 2019. You can follow John on Twitter at @john_stepek.
King Charles banknotes to enter circulation in June
New banknotes featuring the King will enter circulation on 5 June – here’s what they will look like and what you need to know about your old notes.
By Katie Williams Published
Metro Bank to slash 5.22% savings rate for current customers- what’s the next best alternative?
Metro Bank is set to cut the rate on its best buy instant access saver for existing customers. Is there an alternative on the market and should you switch now?
By Vaishali Varu Published
UK wages grow at a record pace
The latest UK wages data will add pressure on the BoE to push interest rates even higher.
By Nicole García Mérida Published
Trapped in a time of zombie government
It’s not just companies that are eking out an existence, says Max King. The state is in the twilight zone too.
By Max King Published
America is in deep denial over debt
The downgrade in America’s credit rating was much criticised by the US government, says Alex Rankine. But was it a long time coming?
By Alex Rankine Published
UK economy avoids stagnation with surprise growth
Gross domestic product increased by 0.2% in the second quarter and by 0.5% in June
By Pedro Gonçalves Published
Bank of England raises interest rates to 5.25%
The Bank has hiked rates from 5% to 5.25%, marking the 14th increase in a row. We explain what it means for savers and homeowners - and whether more rate rises are on the horizon
By Ruth Emery Published
UK wage growth hits a record high
Stubborn inflation fuels wage growth, hitting a 20-year record high. But unemployment jumps
By Vaishali Varu Published
UK inflation remains at 8.7% ‒ what it means for your money
Inflation was unmoved at 8.7% in the 12 months to May. What does this ‘sticky’ rate of inflation mean for your money?
By John Fitzsimons Published
VICE bankruptcy: how did it happen?
Was the VICE bankruptcy inevitable? We look into how the once multibillion-dollar came crashing down.
By Jane Lewis Published