In this week’s podcast (moneyweek.com/podcasts) I talk to Rob Arnott, the chair of Research Affiliates. We talked a good bit about the UK market: he is as convinced as we are that now with Brexit off the front pages (the gas shortage has nothing to do with Brexit) and the UK’s Covid-19 strategy proving to have been more successful than one might have suspected last year, there is no good reason for our market to be trading at a 60% discount to the US market. We talked about the US market too – I wondered if it is possible that the valuation differential between the US and the UK might be closed not by the UK rising, but by the US falling.
In part, yes, says Arnott – there are parts of the US market that are definitely not in a bubble of any description (think energy) but there are other parts that are (technology). It makes sense for investors to steer away from the super expensive to the reasonably valued.
The case for optimism
I’m minded to agree with him, of course (MoneyWeek tends to be biased towards value investing). But there is also a very compelling alternative view. Kirsty Gibson, co-manager of the Baillie Gifford US Growth Trust, suggests looking at some of the more “optically expensive” US companies – not with an eye to short term price/earnings ratios, but with one to the idea of the stage we are at in our current technological growth cycle (see carlotaperez.org for more on the theory regarding this). Much of the time nothing much happens; but every now and then (five times in the last 550 years) we get a sudden speeding up in innovation – a technological revolution. Think the Industrial Revolution, the age of steam, the widespread adoption of electricity, and the age of oil and mass manufacturing.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
In all cases there are two stages. First, the “installation” stage, in which the new technology enhances a few sectors and makes a few great fortunes. These stages – which typically last 20 years – tend to be characterised by rises in inequality and social unrest. Next comes the good bit – the “deployment phase” – the bit when the new technology enters all parts of the economy and benefits everyone. We are, reckons Gibson, around the beginning of this bit of our stunning information technology revolution right now (a little earlier than we might have been without Covid-19).
One example? Education. She points to the rise of Coursera, one of the originators of massive open online courses (MOOCs) and a company now using the internet to open access to high-status education to anyone with the ability to take it on. Health is another example: diagnosis is well on its way – via artificial intelligence (AI) and genomics – to being less educated guesswork, and more accurate, personalised and efficient. Think about the change underway, the change to come and the almost limitless opportunities there are for companies set up to grasp them; and, while one-year valuations are not meaningless, they can’t offer the information that is really important – about the potential tied up in revolutionary companies.
I love this gloriously optimistic way of looking at it – there’s a reason I have and will keep holdings in a variety of Baillie Gifford funds. But there’s room for both views in a portfolio – and sometimes price really does matter. I am topping up my conventional energy holdings too.
-
Rachel Reeves faces £23 billion capital gains tax “black hole” – will she be forced to look elsewhere?The fiscal watchdog has downgraded its forecast for capital gains tax revenues, leaving chancellor Rachel Reeves with £23 billion less than previously expected
-
Protests erupt in Turkey after the arrest of Erdogan's rivalTurkey's president has jailed his main political opponent, Ekrem Imamoglu
-
Protests erupt in Turkey after the arrest of president Erdogan's rivalTurkey's president has jailed his main political opponent, Ekrem Imamoglu
-
What is the Mar-a-Lago Accord and why is it getting attention from Wall Street?On Wall Street, there is talk that Trump's tariffs aim to make the world’s leaders come crawling to Mar-a-Lago, his Florida residence
-
Spring Statement: Rachel Reeves 'must turn good intentions into effective measures'Opinion Chancellor Rachel Reeves understands the economy’s structural problems but is unlikely to solve them, says Max King
-
England's department stores return – but do they have a future?Opinion The great traditional retail shops of Middle England have bounced back for now. Don’t get too carried away though, says Matthew Lynn
-
Can investors stay optimistic about Russian stocks?Investors look to profit from Russia as Trump pushes for peace in Ukraine. But is it worth the risk?
-
Labour's 'Project Chainsaw' begins by abolishing NHS England – will it backfire?Keir Starmer is taking the fight to the blockers, the NIMBYs, public sector workers and the unions says Emily Hohler. What happens if Labour fails to deliver?
-
The benefits of a stock bubbleOpinion We tend to think of stock bubbles as bad things but, as the dotcom craze shows, good things can come from them, says Matthew Lynn
-
Friedrich Merz proposes 'radical' spending package for GermanyGermany's chancellor designate Friedrich Merz wants to scrap restraints on borrowing and allow for much higher defence spending
