Betting on politics: the odds on Keir Starmer leaving
Labour's recent by-election win has eased the pressure on Kier Starmer. But there's still plenty of action in the betting markets, as Matthew Partridge reports.
Labour’s victory in Batley and Spen last week has eased pressure on Keir Starmer’s leadership, which had previously been called into question. With £1,866 matched on Smarkets, the odds on him leaving in 2021 have lengthened from as short as three (33.3%) to seven (14.2%). Punters still think his stay as leader is likely to be relatively short, however: you can get 4.1 (24.3%) on him departing in 2022 and 3.9 (25.6%) in 2023. Indeed, the odds on him surviving to 2025 are still a relatively long 5.3 (18.7%).
Interestingly, Smarkets also runs a separate market on whether Starmer (pictured) will survive to the start of 2024. In that case they put the odds of a departure by the end of 2023 at 1.77 (56.4%), which is slightly better than the combined odds of a departure in 2021, 2022 or 2023, which work out at 64.3. I don’t think that he will go this year, but after that much will depend on the timing and outcome of the next election, so I’d hold off betting for now.
One thing that is more certain is that Starmer is unlikely to make major changes to the most senior shadow cabinet roles in the next few months – he will want to avoid upsetting any faction within the Labour Party. I therefore suggest that you bet that the shadow foreign secretary, Lisa Nandy, will still be in place by the end of the year at 1.37 (72.9%), and that Rachel Reeves will still be shadow chancellor at 1.11 (90.9%).
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Sign up for MoneyWeek's newsletters
Get the latest financial news, insights and expert analysis from our award-winning MoneyWeek team, to help you understand what really matters when it comes to your finances.
Matthew graduated from the University of Durham in 2004; he then gained an MSc, followed by a PhD at the London School of Economics.
He has previously written for a wide range of publications, including the Guardian and the Economist, and also helped to run a newsletter on terrorism. He has spent time at Lehman Brothers, Citigroup and the consultancy Lombard Street Research.
Matthew is the author of Superinvestors: Lessons from the greatest investors in history, published by Harriman House, which has been translated into several languages. His second book, Investing Explained: The Accessible Guide to Building an Investment Portfolio, is published by Kogan Page.
As senior writer, he writes the shares and politics & economics pages, as well as weekly Blowing It and Great Frauds in History columns He also writes a fortnightly reviews page and trading tips, as well as regular cover stories and multi-page investment focus features.
Follow Matthew on Twitter: @DrMatthewPartri
-
Chancellor set to ‘tweak’ non-dom clampdown amid UK wealth exodus
Non-dom status is set to be scrapped but the transition period may be extended to bring more wealth to the UK
By Marc Shoffman Published
-
Luxury stocks rally after Richemont sales boom
Cartier owner Richemont’s robust results have boosted sentiment about luxury stocks – but are investors getting carried away?
By Dr Matthew Partridge Published
-
Why Sezzle's shares may be overvalued
Sezzle, the US buy-now-pay-later provider, is resting on shaky foundations. Is it time to sell this stock?
By Dr Matthew Partridge Published
-
MoneyWeek's trading tips - how did they fare in 2024?
My tips have yielded a profit and the open positions are proving lucrative, too
By Dr Matthew Partridge Published
-
Should you invest in Trainline?
Ticket seller Trainline offers a useful service – and good prospects for investors
By Dr Matthew Partridge Published
-
How investors can use options to navigate a turbulent world
Explainer Options can be a useful solution for investors to protect and grow their wealth in volatile times.
By James Proudlock Published
-
Harworth doubles profit as revenue soars – should you buy?
Harworth, a specialist property developer, is well-aligned with government policies, with revenue expected to rise by over 50% this year, and a further 30% the year after.
By Dr Matthew Partridge Published
-
Bitcoin miner Riot Platforms bleeds money – what happens now?
Riot Platforms struggles to make a profit and looks absurdly overvalued. Are troubles brewing?
By Dr Matthew Partridge Published
-
Intermediate options trading strategies: how to profit from them
Options trading strategies such as spreads, straddles and strangles can open new opportunities
By James Proudlock Published
-
M&S recovery has momentum: will it stick?
After years of decline, M&S seems to have turned a corner. But is this just a “dead cat bounce”?
By Dr Matthew Partridge Published