Labour’s victory in Batley and Spen last week has eased pressure on Keir Starmer’s leadership, which had previously been called into question. With £1,866 matched on Smarkets, the odds on him leaving in 2021 have lengthened from as short as three (33.3%) to seven (14.2%). Punters still think his stay as leader is likely to be relatively short, however: you can get 4.1 (24.3%) on him departing in 2022 and 3.9 (25.6%) in 2023. Indeed, the odds on him surviving to 2025 are still a relatively long 5.3 (18.7%).
Interestingly, Smarkets also runs a separate market on whether Starmer (pictured) will survive to the start of 2024. In that case they put the odds of a departure by the end of 2023 at 1.77 (56.4%), which is slightly better than the combined odds of a departure in 2021, 2022 or 2023, which work out at 64.3. I don’t think that he will go this year, but after that much will depend on the timing and outcome of the next election, so I’d hold off betting for now.
MoneyWeek
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