How reliable is your income from dividend payouts?
Many blue-chip stocks are stretching their dividend payouts to the limit. Make sure you don’t pay the price.
Investors are probably sick of hearing about equity income funds in the wake of the Neil Woodford debacle. But this week attention has turned to traditional equity income funds, rather than Woodford's (which wasn't really an equity income fund at all). The general point (and appeal) of an equity income fund is that it invests in companies that offer higher-than-average dividend yields, whereas Woodford's fund eventually owned large numbers of unlisted stocks paying no dividends at all, propped up by a few mid-cap high-yielders.
The good news is that most UK equity income funds you're likely to own are nothing like that. The bad news, as Laura Suter of investment platform AJ Bell pointed out this week, is that many funds are currently invested in stocks that appear to be pushing the limit when it comes to their payouts.
Dividend cover is a simple ratio that compares earnings with dividend payouts. Ideally, you'd want to see a dividend cover of twice or more in other words, where earnings are at least twice as large as dividend payouts, providing a nice cushion in case of future disappointments. However, dividend cover across the board has been steadily shrinking and is expected to hit its lowest level in a decade this year. The risk is that this will leave companies unable to maintain their payouts.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
As Suter flags up, ten of the highest-yielding stocks in the FTSE 100 have dividend cover of less than 1.5. These include housebuilders Persimmon and Taylor Wimpey and tobacco giant Imperial Brands (all of which trade on extraordinarily high yields of above 11%), while both of the oil majors, BP and Shell (yielding a bit below 7% a piece), are also on the list. In turn, says Suter, of the 83 funds in the UK Equity Income sector, a full 30 of them own five or more of these high-yielding "dangerzone" stocks in their top-ten holdings. Some of the biggest funds on the list include the Man GLG UK Income fund and the M&G Dividend fund.
Does low dividend cover mean a stock is heading for a dividend cut? Not necessarily. Companies with dependable earnings can operate with lower dividend cover than those with volatile earnings. And with dividend yields above 11%, a fund manager may consider a stock worth buying in any case even if the dividend is trimmed, it may still end up being reasonably generous. However, if you are an income investor, look at the funds you own (and any individual stocks you have) to check just how dependent your income is on individual stocks. If your payouts are coming from just a handful of companies, you may want to diversify your portfolio further.
Sign up to Money Morning
Our team, led by award winning editors, is dedicated to delivering you the top news, analysis, and guides to help you manage your money, grow your investments and build wealth.
John Stepek is a senior reporter at Bloomberg News and a former editor of MoneyWeek magazine. He graduated from Strathclyde University with a degree in psychology in 1996 and has always been fascinated by the gap between the way the market works in theory and the way it works in practice, and by how our deep-rooted instincts work against our best interests as investors.
He started out in journalism by writing articles about the specific business challenges facing family firms. In 2003, he took a job on the finance desk of Teletext, where he spent two years covering the markets and breaking financial news.
His work has been published in Families in Business, Shares magazine, Spear's Magazine, The Sunday Times, and The Spectator among others. He has also appeared as an expert commentator on BBC Radio 4's Today programme, BBC Radio Scotland, Newsnight, Daily Politics and Bloomberg. His first book, on contrarian investing, The Sceptical Investor, was released in March 2019. You can follow John on Twitter at @john_stepek.
-
Energy bills to rise by 1.2% in January 2025
Energy bills are set to rise 1.2% in the New Year when the latest energy price cap comes into play, Ofgem has confirmed
By Dan McEvoy Published
-
Should you invest in Trainline?
Ticket seller Trainline offers a useful service – and good prospects for investors
By Dr Matthew Partridge Published
-
As oil prices surge, should you buy BP shares?
Analysis The imbalance between supply and demand has sent the oil price surging, bringing bumper profits to oil giant BP. Rupert Hargreaves looks at the numbers and asks if BP shares deserve a place in your portfolio.
By Rupert Hargreaves Published
-
Should you be worried about energy windfall tax proposals?
Analysis Calls have been growing for a windfall tax on UK oil and gas producers. It's a popular idea, but is it a good one? And what does it mean for investors in the UK's energy companies? Rupert Hargreaves explains.
By Rupert Hargreaves Published
-
BP’s profits surge, but the company’s growth is far from guaranteed
Analysis BP profits are at their highest in a decade, and it looks to be a business firing on all cylinders. But its future is far from certain, says Rupert Hargreaves.
By Rupert Hargreaves Published
-
BP: really going “beyond petroleum” won't be easy
News BP is recovering and plans to become carbon neutral by 2050. Meanwhile, activist investors are targeting ExxonMobil. Matthew Partridge reports
By Dr Matthew Partridge Last updated
-
BP looks set to return more money to shareholders as it beats expectations
News Oil major BP is to embark on a share buyback programme after significantly reducing its debts. Saloni Sardana looks at what it means for your portfolio.
By Saloni Sardana Published
-
BP has slashed its dividend – and markets love it
Opinion BP has bowed to the inevitable and cut its dividend in half – and its share price promptly rose. John Stepek explains what it means for shareholders and for beleaguered income investors.
By John Stepek Published
-
BP bows to reality as it writes down $17bn of assets
News The oil giant has ditched its conspicuously bullish outlook and written down the value of its assets. Will it cut its dividend too? Matthew Partridge reports
By Dr Matthew Partridge Published
-
Watch out income investors – BP looks likely to cut its dividend in the near future
Opinion Oil major BP is writing billions off the value of its assets as it struggles to adapt to the changing world. Unlike Shell, however, BP hasn’t yet cut its dividend. But, says John Stepek, it’s only a matter of time till it does.
By John Stepek Published