The trouble with a customs union
A customs union sounds like a nice idea in theory, says Merryn Somerset Webb. But in reality, it's a terrible one.
Back in 2016 almost no one knew anything about single markets or customs unions. Voters didn't, and as it turns out, MPs didn't either. You'd think they would by now.
Not so. If they did, Parliament wouldn't be so keen for the UK to enter a permanent customs union (where we agree to charge the same tariffs as the European Union on all imports) with the EU (it was one of the closest calls in this week's otherwise pointless round of indicative votes, and apparently a favoured option of Jeremy Corbyn's).
A customs union sounds like a nice idea (less disruption for the many UK firms that export into the EU) and you might think that the UK not being able to have an independent post-EU trade deal isn't much of an issue, all things considered. But the devil, as ever, is in the detail.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
The EU is a relatively protectionist organisation the customs union forms a tariff shield around us all and without the UK to make the free-trade case within it, it is more likely to become more so than less so. That could mean more tariffs and higher prices not ideal.But there is a much bigger problem the lack of reciprocity inherent in a customs union.
A letter to the Financial Times from Vernon Bogdanor, a professor of government at King's College London, sums things up. Inside a customs union, "we would have to open up our markets to the third countries with which the EU had trade agreements, but the markets of such third countries would not be open to our exports since we would be outside the EU. And such third countries would have few incentives to sign trade agreements with us since their goods would already enjoy free access".
You can see the problem. All sorts of soft Brexits make some sense May's deal and EEA/EFTA both make some sense but anything involving a customs union like this just doesn't. Some of its advocates say that our customs union with the EU will be different to others because the EU, in recognition of the size of our economy, will have to take our views into account (I have some sympathy for this view).
But these are usually the same people who keep telling us that the EU has "all the cards", so who knows how any negotiation could end up, my worry being that a customs union could end up looking so bad for the UK that it wouldn't hold, leaving us back at our rather trying square one again. Either way, given how very important they are to our exporters, wouldn't it be nice if these points were part of this week's conversation?
Reciprocity matters. For the market, however, the nitty gritty of the customs union doesn't (in the short term, at least) matter so much as a deal, any deal. In preparation for that, we look at the possible "Brexit bargains". As soon as we have clarity (it doesn't matter on what, just clarity) they will bounce, says David Stevenson.
If you aren't a long-term enough investor for that (only half a joke). Max King looks at gold mining stocks a rising gold price makes them more interesting than usual and Andy Headley picks a few stocks that he reckons can transcend politics.
Finally, do read our analysis. It's about the enormous life-saving potential of immunotherapy and should, I think, act as a nice reminder to all of us that beyond the UK's three-year Brexit bicker, an awful lot of really good things are happening.
Sign up to Money Morning
Our team, led by award winning editors, is dedicated to delivering you the top news, analysis, and guides to help you manage your money, grow your investments and build wealth.
Merryn Somerset Webb started her career in Tokyo at public broadcaster NHK before becoming a Japanese equity broker at what was then Warburgs. She went on to work at SBC and UBS without moving from her desk in Kamiyacho (it was the age of mergers).
After five years in Japan she returned to work in the UK at Paribas. This soon became BNP Paribas. Again, no desk move was required. On leaving the City, Merryn helped The Week magazine with its City pages before becoming the launch editor of MoneyWeek in 2000 and taking on columns first in the Sunday Times and then in 2009 in the Financial Times
Twenty years on, MoneyWeek is the best-selling financial magazine in the UK. Merryn was its Editor in Chief until 2022. She is now a senior columnist at Bloomberg and host of the Merryn Talks Money podcast - but still writes for Moneyweek monthly.
Merryn is also is a non executive director of two investment trusts – BlackRock Throgmorton, and the Murray Income Investment Trust.
-
Energy bills to rise by 1.2% in January 2025
Energy bills are set to rise 1.2% in the New Year when the latest energy price cap comes into play, Ofgem has confirmed
By Dan McEvoy Published
-
Should you invest in Trainline?
Ticket seller Trainline offers a useful service – and good prospects for investors
By Dr Matthew Partridge Published
-
Beat the cost of living crisis – go on holiday
Editor's letter As inflation rages, energy bills soar and the pound tanks, what’s a good way to save money this winter? Go on holiday, says Merryn Somerset Webb.
By Merryn Somerset Webb Published
-
How capitalism has been undermined by poor governance
Editor's letter Capitalism’s “ruthless efficiency” has been undermined by poor governance, a lack of competition and central banks’ over-enthusiastic money printing, says Andrew Van Sickle.
By Andrew Van Sickle Published
-
Don't be scared by economic forecasting
Editor's letter The Bank of England warned last week the UK will tip into recession this year. But predictions about stockmarkets, earnings or macroeconomic trends can be safely ignored, says Andrew Van Sickle.
By Andrew Van Sickle Published
-
The biggest change in the last 17 years – the death of the “Greenspan put”
Editor's letter Since I joined MoneyWeek 17 years ago, says John Stepek, we’ve seen a global financial crisis, a eurozone sovereign debt crisis , several Chinese growth scares, a global pandemic, and a land war in Europe. But the biggest change is the death of the “Greenspan put”.
By John Stepek Published
-
The wolf returns to the eurozone’s door
Editor's letter The eurozone’s intrinsic flaws have been exposed again as investors’ fears about Italy’s ability to pay its debt sends bond yields soaring.
By Andrew Van Sickle Published
-
Things won't just return to normal – that's not how inflation works
Editor's letter You might think that, if inflation is indeed “transitory”, we just need to wait and everything will return to “normal”. But this is a grave misunderstanding of how inflation works, says John Stepek.
By John Stepek Published
-
Car hire and the strangeness of the post-pandemic economy
Editor's letter A global shortage of hire cars and unusually high hotel occupancy rates sum up the post-pandemic global economy in a nutshell, says Merryn Somerset Webb, with enhanced demand meeting restricted supply.
By Merryn Somerset Webb Published
-
Why we need to get a grip on our government
Editor's letter Our government is trying to do too much, enacting policies that are destructive to the private sector. It needs to drop the the feel-good nonsense and create policies that lead to long-term wealth, says Merryn Somerset Webb.
By Merryn Somerset Webb Published