Features

Betting on politics: the US presidential primary campaign

It’s still nearly a year until the Iowa caucuses begin, traditionally the start of the presidential primary campaign in the US, but Ladbrokes is already offering a market on the winner. Matthew Partridge looks at some of the best bets.

934_MW_P09_P&E_Coljpg

It's still nearly a year until the Iowa caucuses begin, traditionally the start of the presidential primary campaign in the US, but Ladbrokes is already offering a market on the winner (in terms of overall state delegates). The favourite is Kamala Harris at 5/1, followed by Elizabeth Warren at 10/1, Cory Booker at 20/1 and Kirsten Gillibrand (pictured) at 25/1. I'd steer clear for now, however, as potential candidates such as Joseph Biden aren't currently listed.

I'd also steer clear of the vice-presidential nominee market atthe moment. Vice-presidential nominations depend heavily on the nominee, and can either be candidates who performed strongly in the primary (such as John Edwards in 2004), respected grandees(Dick Cheney in 2000 and Joe Biden in 2008), or candidates intended to provide geographical or political balance to the ticket (Michael Pence and Tim Kaine, both in 2016). Occasionally, nominees can be completely unexpected (Sarah Palin in 2008).

Subscribe to MoneyWeek

Become a smarter, better informed investor with MoneyWeek.

As an alternative I'd suggest betting on the party of the winner.At the moment Betfair is offering 1.7 (58.8%) on the Democrats winning, and 2.4 (41.7%) on the Republicans. You can also get 50 (2%) on an independent candidate. Given that Donald Trump's opinion ratings are barely above 40%, with a majority of voters strongly disapprovingof him, I can't imaginea scenario wherehe manages to win.I'd suggest you bet against the Republicans at 2.5 (40%), which is equivalent to betting on a Democratic or independent victory at 1.67 (60%).

Advertisement

Most Popular

Visit/investments/property/house-prices/600840/the-biggest-risk-facing-the-uk-housing-market-right-now
House prices

The biggest risk facing the UK housing market right now

For house prices to stagnate or even fall would be healthy for the property market, says John Stepek. But there is a distinct danger that isn't going …
17 Feb 2020
Visit/currencies/600842/eur-usd-euro-slide-against-us-dollar
Currencies

The euro’s slide against the US dollar looks set to continue

The euro has been in a bear market against the US dollar for two years now. And on a broader scale since 2008. A decline like that is telling us somet…
19 Feb 2020
Visit/investments/stocks-and-shares/share-tips/600811/three-overlooked-stocks-to-buy-now
Share tips

Three overlooked stocks to buy now

Each week, a professional investor tells us where he’d put his money. This week: Joe Bauernfreund, portfolio manager at the AVI Global Trust, highligh…
17 Feb 2020
Visit/investments/stockmarkets/european-stockmarkets/600725/is-2020-the-year-for-european-small-cap
Sponsored

Is 2020 the year for European small-cap stocks?

SPONSORED CONTENT - Ollie Beckett, manager of the TR European Growth Trust, on why he believes European small-cap stocks are performing well.
12 Feb 2019