Do tariff concerns miss the point?
As always with Donald Trump, the big statements have garnered the most attention. From promising the biggest mass deportation of migrants in US history to hinting he might invade Greenland, he is never far away from a controversial declaration.
As such, his promise to impose swingeing tariffs have dominated the financial discourse ahead of his inauguration.
In the view of David Coombs, head of multi-asset investing, Rathbones Asset Management, this distracts from some of his more substantial objectives.
“There’s a risk that Trump’s touted policies (big tariffs on trade, big tax cuts for households and businesses, and a clampdown on both legal and illegal immigration) will send inflation higher,” he says. “We think people are putting too much weight on these areas and ignoring his ambitions on slashing government spending.
“Trump often talks big at the outset, only to negotiate a compromise at the end. To that end, some of the tariffs may be much smaller or not happen at all. Similarly, tax cuts may not be as large as some hope. But if he and Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency manage to slash a significant amount of federal spending, the tax-cuts’ net effect on inflation may be negligible.”
Tesla’s “Trump bump”
Tesla has enjoyed a significant “Trump bump” in recent months. The share price is up more than 70% since the start of November, a remarkable turnaround for a company that spent much of 2024 in the red. Retail investment platform Interactive Investor reports that Tesla has been the third most-bought investment on its platform since Trump’s election win on 6 November.
The share price hit a new all-time high in mid-December, before losing some of these gains in the final two weeks of the year. It has been picking up again over the past couple of weeks in the lead-up to the inauguration.
The latest share price moves are perhaps unsurprising. Tesla’s chief executive Elon Musk has a close relationship with Trump and has been given a key advisory role at the heart of Washington, leading the new Department of Government Efficiency. The New York Times reports that Musk is expected to use office space in the White House complex, giving him “significant access” to the incoming president.
What did the S&P 500 do in Trump’s first term?
US markets are closed today in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day, which is a federal holiday. But what might we expect from the S&P 500 based on Donald Trump's previous term in office? In short, the outlook appears positive. During the first 12 months of Trump's first administration, the S&P 500 increased by 19.4%, on the back of a 5% rally during his first 100 days in power. During the whole of Trump's first term, the S&P 500 jumped almost 70%.
An early winner
One early winner from the Trump presidency is ByteDance, the Chinese-headquartered firm that owns video-sharing app TikTok.
A Biden-era ban on the app was temporarily enforced on Saturday, blocking US users from the app.
By Sunday, however, Trump had vowed to reinstate the app, and access was resumed.
It’s a little surprising, especially for anyone that thinks a protectionist, anti-China stance will offer a straightforward categorisation of Trump’s agenda. Meta (NASDAQ:META) shares gained 2% on Friday, as ByteDance’s appeal against the ban was unanimously rejected.
Meta’s CEO Mark Zuckerberg has recently signaled his support for Trump by removing factcheckers across its platforms, including Facebook and Instagram – much as close Trump ally Elon Musk did when he took over Twitter (now ‘X’).
Trump has seemingly turned down the first chance to return the favour, though, in reinstating one of Meta’s biggest social media rivals.
“As of today, TikTok is back,” the incoming president declared at a “victory rally” in Washington DC on Sunday.
More than 200 executive actions expected today
Trump is expected to sign more than 200 executive actions today. The BBC reports that this will include executive orders, which are legally binding, as well as other directives like proclamations, which are not.
The incoming president has previously indicated that trade tariffs could be among his “day one” policies. Other areas of focus could include immigration and the US border, reversing Joe Biden’s climate policies, and dissolving existing diversity, equity and inclusion policies.
Dollar nears new highs
Besides their more digital incarnations, regular currencies have made some significant moves in the run-up to Trump’s inauguration.
The US dollar has neared new highs in recent weeks, as expectations rose for higher interest rates and superior growth in the US, compared to other regions.
The US dollar index is a measure of the value of the US dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies. Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated.
“Any imposition of tariffs would tend to be supportive of the dollar because it would go some way towards equalising out the impact of tariffs on trade and activity,” says David Rees, senior emerging markets economist at Schroders. “We also expect support from interest rate differentials to re-emerge, so a stronger dollar is likely to remain for a while longer.”
However, the US dollar index has fallen 0.3% this morning, while the pound has gained approximately the same amount against the dollar.
FTSE 100, gold and Bitcoin up
The FTSE 100 has gained 0.3% this morning, approaching a new intra-day high in the process.
“After reaching an all-time high on Friday there seems little to spark a pull-back, with US markets shut for Martin Luther King Day,” says Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets, Hargreaves Lansdown. “With the UK no longer in the eye of the storm when it comes to market turmoil, it’s helping improve investor sentiment.”
“However, all eyes will be on Donald Trump’s inauguration later as the 47th President of the United States and his comments are likely to hold sway on markets.”
His signalling vis-à-vis any potential tariff regime is likely to be the biggest factor here. The uncertainty around Trump’s plans for the US and, by extension, the global economy has pushed gold up 0.1% this morning, as investors make for the safe haven asset in the face of an unpredictable few months.
Bitcoin is also making strides: the cryptocurrency is up 2.9% this morning and 15.4% in the year to date, to record highs of around $108,000, as investors expect the new administration to take a crypto-friendly stance.
Trade secretary: UK in “greater” danger than some other countries
Trade secretary Jonathan Reynolds has expressed concern about the possibility of a trade war, arguing that the UK could be particularly vulnerable. “The UK is a very globally-oriented economy so the exposure and the danger to the UK is actually greater than even some comparable countries,” he said.
Despite this, he told Sky News that Trump was more focused on China and the EU as a result of trade deficits with those regions. He also expressed optimism about opportunities to further improve US-UK relations.
“We’re well prepared for this, we’ve got a good argument to make, and I think there is a chance, actually if we play this right, to get an even better relationship out of some of these things that have been put forward,” Reynolds said.
Ripples from across the pond
What have Trump’s policies got to do with the pound in your pocket? Given that the US is our largest trading partner, accounting for 22% of UK exports and 13% of UK imports in 2023, the answer to that question is: quite a lot.
“Donald Trump threatened to introduce universal tariffs of 10-20% on all imports (and up to 60% in the case of Chinese imports),” says Jason Hollands, managing director at Bestinvest, the online investment platform. “If such measures are quickly introduced, this would prove a significant financial shock.”
The impact of any direct tariffs imposed on the UK isn’t the only thing you need to consider. Supply chains are intricate, global webs of interdependence. This means businesses and consumers would also feel the effects of a wider trade war, including measures imposed on the likes of China and the EU.
By disrupting global trade, tariffs would push up costs for businesses throughout their supply chain and add to inflationary pressures felt at home in the UK. Inflation is already expected to pick up again in 2025 thanks to other pressures, like rising energy prices and tax changes announced in the Autumn Budget. Wide-ranging tariffs could compound the issue further.
Trump-friendly funds
While some experts advise against trying too hard to play the Trump presidency, t’s good to have an idea which investments could provide a measure of protection against any negative fallout, whether that’s to add to a portfolio now or to keep an eye on as the administration’s agenda unfolds.
“Trump will have a lot on his plate when he returns to the White House, facing challenges ranging from a heavily indebted America with a soaring budget deficit to two major conflicts on the global stage,” says Alex Watts, fund analyst at interactive investor. “Beyond the volatility that these challenges may bring, investors can start to identify areas and sectors that might benefit from the policy direction of Trump 2.0.”
Watts picks out the Artemis US Smaller Companies Fund, the FTF Clearbridge Global Infrastructure Fund and the Neuberger Berman US Multi-Cap Opportunities Fund as funds that could benefit from Trump’s domestic focus and particularly his intention to rebuild US infrastructure.
Watts also picked out digital assets, particularly Bitcoin, as an asset class that responded positively to Trump’s election win, largely as Trump is expected to be friendly to the space.
Although Paul Angell, AJ Bell head of investment research at AJ Bell, echoes Mould’s view that investors shouldn’t “twist and turn with the wind” of political shifts or attempt to “second guess what the next four years could mean for global stock markets”, he does offer up four funds that “may remain on the radar of investors as the US undergoes a change in presidential administration”: Artemis US Select, Artemis US Smaller Companies, iShares Core S&P 500 ETF and JP Morgan US Equity Income.
Victoria Hasler, head of fund research, Hargreaves Lansdown, meanwhile, recommends that investors consider Artemis US Smaller Companies and Rathbone Global Opportunities – which offers global exposure alongside “expert” active management from James Thompson – and Troy Trojan, a defensive fund that offers “some shelter in turbulent times”.
The art of the deal
It’s far from guaranteed that Trump will be able to enact tariffs, or that he’ll even try to, on the scale that has been rumoured.
The Washington Post reported in early January that Trump’s aides were discussing a pared-back tariff regime that would only apply to critical imports. While Trump was quick to dismiss the rumours, the story plays into a general perception that Trump’s bark is often worse than his bite.
Trump has as good as confessed, in his book Art of the Deal, that he often adopts a seemingly-ridiculous stance at the outset of a negotiation, in order to obtain a better price. Having promised to take a heavy-handed approach to foreign policy, Trump’s bluster about tariffs could all simply be a negotiating tactic in order to eke out more from the global leaders he will be speaking to early in his tenure than he might otherwise.
“No-one, but no-one, knows what Trump is going to do,” Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, told MoneyWeek.
There is also the fact that any policies he tries to introduce will need to be negotiated through Congress. With a tiny Republican minority in the House, that’s not a given, even for a veteran dealmaker like Trump.
With all that in mind, Mould suggests that investors shouldn’t try too hard, just yet, to protect their portfolios against potential Trump tariffs.
“We still don’t know whether Congress will help or hinder [a tariff regime],” he says. “Until we know what Trump is proposing and what is actually implemented, it is very hard to form a view, either way.”
Tariff turbulence
The market turbulence that could accompany Trump’s inauguration is in no small part related to the inherent unpredictability of his administration, indeed of the man himself.
“UK investors should brace for some volatile patterns of trading on the financial markets,” says Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets, Hargreaves Lansdown. “Some of the turmoil we’ve already seen on financial markets is likely to continue as speculation swirls about Donald Trump’s trade policies once he’s back in the White House.”
Some of Trump’s stated aims – like reducing corporation tax and streamlining the government’s bureaucracy – are ostensibly business-friendly.
However, his proposal of levying steep tariffs on imports across the board have spooked markets.
“US exporters are likely to be hit by higher tit-for-tat duties in return if Trump introduces widespread tariffs,” says Streeter. “It’s likely that a fresh round of trade wars will be inflationary as the higher tariffs feed through to higher prices for goods in American shops. This, in turn, may add to clamour for higher wages. Already concerns that this will drastically limit the Federal Reserve’s capacity to reduce interest rates has rattled bond markets, pushing up government borrowing costs.”
READ MORE: Will Trump's tariffs trigger high inflation in the US?
The Trump timeline
Before we get going on the analysis of what Trump’s second term in the White House could mean for markets, let’s have a look at some key milestones that we’re expecting today. All times are GMT unless specified otherwise.
There will be a service at St John’s Church followed by tea at the White House with the Bidens in the morning, though the Trump-Vance inaugural team have not confirmed precise timings for these.
However, the next item on the agenda – the swearing-in ceremony in the US Capitol – always takes place at midday on the US East coast – so 5pm in the UK.
There will likely be some big moves as Trump takes office, even though there will be no policy passed today. Previous inauguration speeches have given indications of the direction of travel for an administration, and this is likely to be especially so for Trump.
The S&P 500 opened 1.5% for Joe Biden’s inauguration in 2021, but fell back 0.1% during the day from there. With US markets closed for Martin Luther King day today, however, we’ll have to wait until tomorrow to see how the index reacts this time around.
READ MORE: Is the US economy set for success?
Good morning, and thanks for joining our live blog. Dan McEvoy and Katie Williams here to take you through what promises to be an eventful day for global markets, as Donald Trump is inaugurated as US president for the second time.