Features

Sound and fury over Nafta

Little changed despite the ill-tempered negotiations. Matthew Partridge reports.

916-Trump-634

Trump: aggressive and unruly posturing

"There's a lot to digest in the new trade agreement that the United States, Mexico and Canada finalised in deadline-beating fashion on Sunday," says Jim Tankersley in the New York Times. Apart from the "cosmetic" change of rebranding Nafta as USMCA (United States-Canada-Mexico-Agreement) there are several "major adjustments in several key areas of the countries' trading relationships".

These include new rules meant to incentivise production of cars and trucks in countries that pay higher wages and "reduced barriers for American dairy farmers to sell cheese, milk and other products to Canada". A controversial provision allowing firms to sue governments for adverse policies has been scrapped, but a trade disputes body will stay.

More relief than satisfaction

"The new deal's main virtue is that it stows one of Donald Trump's main protectionist wrecking balls," says the Wall Street Journal. However, this is "more relief than vindication" since the new deal "strips protections against predatory government behaviour for most foreign investors".

It also "takes a giant step toward politically managed trade by imposing new rules of origin and labor regulations". For example, the measures "will add costs and complexity to building cars on the continent, and make the final products less competitive world-wide", potentially driving production away from North America.

It's true that "the agreement is generally the worse for these revisions", says the Financial Times. But "severe damage has been averted". The rules of origin regulations will "will hamper but probably not severely damage automakers' operations". And Canada "managed to retain a prized dispute settlement process that it has successfully used in the past to restrain the excessive US use of antidumping and anti-subsidy duties, particularly against its lumber exports". While Trump threatened "to change fundamentally or to destroy" Nafta, it has "suffered neither of those two fates".

Allies know Trump can't be trusted

Despite the agreement, several issues remain outstanding, says Keith Johnson in Foreign Policy. For example, "the United States will continue to slap tariffs on Canadian and Mexican steel and aluminum even though the Trump administration said those tariffs were meant to pressure both countries into reaching a comprehensive agreement". Ironically, the deal might also encourage more protectionism on third countries since "the only way to put teeth into the revised Nafta's auto rules is to levy huge tariffs on cars and car parts from other countries".

And the deal may come too late to undo the damage caused by Trump's "aggressive and unruly posturing", says Bloomberg. The whole episode "has sent the message that he disdains alliances, sees the world in zero-sum terms, and cannot be trusted". This is counterproductive because "in coming to terms with China on trade and other issue the US will need the support of its allies". Overall, "the main result of his sound and fury over Nafta is diminished US sway in the world".

Recommended

US inflation is rising – but it’s not enough to rattle markets yet
Inflation

US inflation is rising – but it’s not enough to rattle markets yet

The latest US inflation figures showed that consumer prices are rising more rapidly than expected. But markets shrugged. John Stepek asks why, and wha…
14 Apr 2021
Why all eyes will be on US inflation data this week
Inflation

Why all eyes will be on US inflation data this week

As the world comes out of lockdown and demand for goods and services rises, attention will shift to inflation and what it means for interest rates. Th…
12 Apr 2021
What will Joe Biden’s “build back better” plan mean for markets?
US Economy

What will Joe Biden’s “build back better” plan mean for markets?

Joe Biden recently proposed a $2trn “build back better” stimulus plan for America – on top of the $1.9trn he announced earlier this year. Saloni Sarda…
6 Apr 2021
What does Joe Biden’s $3trn infrastructure plan mean for your money?
US Economy

What does Joe Biden’s $3trn infrastructure plan mean for your money?

Joe Biden is set to announce a further $3trn of public stimulus in the US. Saloni Sardana looks at what’s on the table, and what effect it could have …
30 Mar 2021

Most Popular

“Joke” cryptocurrency dogecoin goes to the moon. What’s going on?
Bitcoin

“Joke” cryptocurrency dogecoin goes to the moon. What’s going on?

Dogecoin – a cryptocurrency created as a joke – has risen by more than 9,000% this year alone. Saloni Sardana looks at how something that began as an …
19 Apr 2021
The FTSE 100 has clawed back above 7,000 – how much higher can it go?
UK stockmarkets

The FTSE 100 has clawed back above 7,000 – how much higher can it go?

The FTSE 100 index has risen to over 7,000 for the first time in over a year – it now sits just above where it was in 1999. But its era of neglect cou…
19 Apr 2021
The bitcoin bubble will burst: here’s how to play it
Bitcoin

The bitcoin bubble will burst: here’s how to play it

The cryptocurrency’s price has soared far beyond its fundamentals, says Matthew Partridge. Here, he looks at how to short bitcoin.
12 Apr 2021