A whiff of the 1970s in the air
With disgruntled unions and inflation on the rise, investors can be forgiven for having a sense of deja vu, says Merryn Somerset Webb.
A few weeks ago, we wrote that there was starting to be something of the 1970s about the UK. The sense of deja vu is rising. This week, we learned that Consumer Price Index inflation (the government's favoured measure) is at 2.9%. The Retail Price Index the one the government tells us is deeply flawed, but which they still use to benchmark student loans, rail fares and index-linked gilts is at 3.9%. At the same time, the threat of industrial action is growing.
Theresa May's government is to partly lift the 1% public-sector pay cap (even although taxpayer-funded public-sector compensation remains firmly above the private sector's). This has done her little good. The chair of the Police Federation of England and Wales reckons his members will be "angry and deflated". Three of our biggest unions see a "strong likelihood" of co-ordinated strike action, and Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn won't say whether he would back illegal strikes or not. It is, he says, "a matter for the unions". Weak government, low growth, high debt, persistent inflation and and an aggressive dollop of strike action about to be chucked into the mix. Not encouraging.
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For investors, this makes it more vital than ever that your portfolio is as resilient as can be. Don't hold shares in companies that might have to cut their dividends just as you need real income (dividend cover in the FTSE 100 is very low). Don't hold any that are covering up a lack of growth with aggressive accounting or long-term destructive acquisitions (de-merging, focused companies might be better). Don't own any with low levels of pricing power in a global market. And you certainly don't want any with dimwits as managers (just look at the story behind Provident Financial's downfall). See this week's cover story for more on how to avoid market villains.
Finally, whatever the inadequacies of fiat money (inflation and inevitable long-term failure) I have one final near-certainty for you: if you invest in a fund that invests in crypto-currencies, you will be sorry.
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