What’s happening with UK house prices? Latest property market moves and forecasts

House prices were returning to growth in early 2026 after a lacklustre 2025 but there are fears that the Iran war may dent confidence.

Growth in the housing market was stunted last year amid falling stamp duty thresholds in March 2025 and buyers and sellers remaining tentative in the run up to the 2025 Autumn Budget, as well as higher mortgage rates.

The main house price indices had suggested the market remained resilient despite these challenges last year and early figures suggested it was emerging into 2026 more upbeat.

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In most ordinary circumstances, slowing inflation, low growth and high unemployment would prompt the Bank of England into lowering interest rates and mean mortgage costs falling for homeowners.

However, with the conflict in Iran ongoing and fears of higher inflation, the downward turn in mortgage rates already appears to be in reverse and could put the brakes on house prices.

What is the current average house price in the UK?

There are five main house price indices measuring how much UK house prices have gone up or down over the past month and year: HM Land Registry/Office for National Statistics (ONS), Halifax, Nationwide, Zoopla and Rightmove.

HM Land Registry UK House Price Index

The most authoritative is HM Land Registry as its data includes cash purchases as well as homes financed through a mortgage. Its data is published on a six-week time lag though, meaning it’s more retrospective than other house price indices.

According to the latest available Land Registry data, released in February 2026, the average UK house price is £270,259 (December 2025), falling 0.7% from £272,043 in November.

Nationwide House Price Index

Recent Nationwide data shows house growth was almost flat at 0.3% between January and February after a rise between December 2025 and January 2026.

This puts the average UK house price at £273,176.

Halifax House Price Index

House prices rose month-on-month in February by 0.3%, following a 0.8% increase in January, according to Halifax. The lender now puts the average UK property price at £301,151 but has warned that the Iran war could dent confidence and demand.

Rightmove House Price Index

Unlike Nationwide and Halifax’s HPIs, which are based on the building society and bank’s valuations at the mortgage-approval stage, Rightmove’s HPI is based on asking prices.

According to the latest data from Rightmove, the average UK property asking price is £368,019 (February 2026), down £12 from January.

This would suggest house prices are flatlining, however Rightmove said asking prices recorded their greatest January rise in 25 years at the start of 2026, increasing 2.8% from £358,138 to £368,031 as buyers flooded the market after Christmas.

Zoopla House Price Index

The Zoopla house price index uses sold prices, mortgage valuations, and data for agreed sales to calculate house prices for any given month.

The property portal’s latest index said the average UK house price is £269,900, as of January 2026, up marginally from £269,800 in December.

It also said there were 6% more homes on sale in January compared to the same month in 2025, which will keep house price growth in check.

Which UK regions saw the most house price growth in 2025?

Northern Ireland is the region where house prices grew the most in 2025 by and large, according to the major lenders and property portals.

Property prices went up by 9.7% across the country in 2025, according to Nationwide, considerably outpacing all other regions of the UK.

Across all UK regions, between October 2024 and October 2025, house prices rose the most in Northern Ireland, said Lloyds Bank. It said prices rose by 5.8% (£9,302) over the 12-month period it tracked.

And it wasn’t just in 2025 that real estate boomed in Northern Ireland.

The average house price across the country has surged by 45% since the start of 2020 compared to 27% across the UK, according to research by insurance firm Smart Mortgage Insurance.

It means a typical home in Northern Ireland is now worth £60,000 more than pre-pandemic.

Other UK regions which experienced significant house price growth in 2025 are Scotland and the north of England. Lower house prices and mortgage costs in these areas can stimulate house price growth.

Conversely, house prices have largely stagnated in southern England and London where affordability is more of a concern for buyers.

Most of the major indices indicate property prices have risen just slightly, remained flat or even fallen in the capital. Reasons why house prices are struggling in London are myriad, but in part due to higher stamp duty costs since April 2025 and a languishing premium market.

Is confidence in the market turning a corner?

As well as the five main HPIs released on a regular basis, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) also publishes a monthly Residential Market Survey.

The report generates net balance scores between -100 and +100 in response to a series of questions put to its members (estate agents and surveyors) about how the housing market has changed.

Recent RICS reports had suggested the housing market is showing signs of “tentative recovery,” but now members are warning that confidence is stalling due to tensions in the Gulf.

Surveyors have turned more negative on buyer demand and sales expectations.

House prices were broadly flat at the national level in February, with the headline price net balance registering -12%.

There are big regional differences though.

Surveyors in London (-40%), the South East (-24%) and East Anglia (-26%) saw the most downward pressure on price, while those in Northern Ireland, Scotland and the North West of England are still reporting positive price trends.

Looking ahead, surveyors have become more cautious on prices in the short term, with the near-term price expectations balance falling to -18% from -6% in January. Over a 12-month horizon, sentiment remains positive, with a net balance of +33% expecting prices to edge.

Will house prices rise in 2026 and beyond?

Largely speaking, lenders and major estate agents believe house prices will rise in 2026, but this is based on predictions made before the conflict in the Middle East.

Estate agency Hamptons expects that house prices will grow modestly in 2026, anticipating an increase of 2.5% by Q4 2026.

This growth is forecast to be driven mostly by a healthier market in the West Midlands, North West and Wales.

Better affordability in these two regions is a major factor for growth where fewer buyers are priced out of the market.

Wider economic factors play a part too – the estate agency said anticipated interest rate cuts by the Bank of England in 2026 and easing inflation will combine to stimulate growth in house prices.

Halifax is forecasting property prices to edge up between 1% and 3% in 2026.

However, estate agent Savills predicts prices will increase by just 2% in 2026.

That said, in the four years between 2027 and 2030, it expects prices to grow 4%, 5%, 5.5% and 4%, respectively, in part due to wages rising by a forecasted 22% between 2025 and 2029 and improved economic growth.

How have mortgage interest rate changes impacted buyer affordability in the UK?

Savills predicts the number of people buying homes between 2025 and 2030 will be boosted by falling mortgage rates while more relaxed affordability tests from lenders could boost transaction volumes.

Zoopla believes house price growth will be slow in 2026 at 1.5%, with interest rate cuts slowly filtering through to make owning a home cheaper.

Meanwhile, Nationwide’s recent House Price Review suggests property prices will rise between 2% and 4% in 2026 due to falling mortgage rates and as wage growth outpaces property price growth.

The “mansion tax” on homes valued at more than £2 million, introduced in the 2025 Autumn Budget and coming into effect in 2028, is “unlikely to have a significant impact on the market”, the building society added, as it will only apply to 1% of homes.

Having said this, with ongoing tensions in Iran stoking fears the rate of inflation could rise, mortgage rates might not be coming down any time soon.