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Election 2015: it’s indecision time

Adrian Sykes takes one final look at the opinion polls, odds and spreads as he tries to make sense out of the election.

150507-polling

The polls

Conservative284*
Labour263
Liberal Democrats31
SNP48
Ukip2
Plaid Cymru3
Green1
Northern Ireland18
(of which the DUP 9)
* Presumably including the Speaker

TOTAL

650

Permutations (323 needed for a majority)

323

(UKIP would be ignored, but might be needed)

Labour 263 + SNP (48) = 311 + others? (13) = 324

(Question: where would the LibDems fit into this?)

Conclusion: Cameron could stay on, provided Clegg retains his seat (to be declared at 04:30 tomorrow morning).

The odds (averaged at 08:00 this morning)

No overall majority:1-33 (overwhelming favourite)
Most seats:Tory1-5 (only slightly less certain)
Labour3-1 (forget it)
A minority government:Led by Cameron9-2 (unlikely)
Led by Miliband6-4 (more likely)
A majority government:Led by Cameron10-1 (forget it)
Led by Miliband6-4 (a silly price)

The spreads (averaged at 09:30 this morning)

Tory 288.5-291.5 (-2)

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Labour 262-265 (-0.5)

LibDem 26-28 (+0.5)

SNP 46-48 (-0.5)

UKIP 2.3-3.8 (unchanged)

Permutations (using middle prices):

Labour 264 + SNP (47) = 311(but no coalition)

Lib Dems have said they won't work with SNP

Conclusion: on this result Cameron would stay on.

Cameron will probablyjust squeak in, almost anything Miliband tries will be untenable. I continue to believe however, that if there are any surprises, the Tories and Lib Dems will do better than expected, and that the SNP will do worse.

The markets (at 09:30 this morning)

£ is down 0.2% against the US$

The FTSE 100 is down 51 points

Conclusion: on tenterhooks, but resilient.

The first poll result is likely to be Sunderland at 23:00 this evening. It won't tell us much. From 03:00 onwards the overall result will become increasingly plain.

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