There’s unusual activity in the gold market

The gold rally continues. In my last post about gold on 17 February, the market had broken up out of a major tramline on the daily chart, giving a solid buy signal. That break occurred about $100 below the current market. Anyone who was following my tramline trading rule would now be in considerable profit.

After the break, the market went on to test and then close the open gap from last year.

It also made it to the Fibonacci 23% retrace of the large wave down off the October 2012 high in the $1,320 area. This is the daily chart as of this morning:

Gold price spread betting chart

The market now appears to be pulling away from the 23% level, where it had briefly paused. Because the market was at an important Fibonacci level, it had the option of reversing down from there.

This is a special pattern that I have found often gives an accurate indication of the next move, which makes it a useful trading tool.

In the example I’m giving you today, short-term traders would be faced with a dilemma. The style of trading used in this example involves a quick hit-and-run exit when specific targets are reached.

They are prepared to give up any further gains which could accrue by simply adopting the swing traders’ approach. This approach is to stay with a trend until there are solid signs it has likely ended.

But entering a trade is the easy part. It is the management of the trade that is by far the most difficult aspect of trading. So to give you the best of both worlds, I’m going to show you why I advocate my ‘split-bet strategy‘.


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How to get the best of both trading worlds

This is the hourly chart I took on Monday:

Gold price spread betting chart

Last week, the market was engaged in the A-B-C correction (main trend still up). And starting last Friday, the market resumed its main uptrend making the zig-zag pattern I have labeled with the numbered waves.

This is my 5-wave continuation pattern, which I discovered some years ago. The pattern consists of five waves with these rules:

Wave 4 must overlap wave 1. And to confirm the pattern, wave 5 must exceed wave 3.

Waves 2, 3 and 4 must be of approximate equal size with the time duration of waves 2 and 4 about equal.

This is a textbook example of this pattern. It is as if the market is getting ready for another leg up.

When wave 5 rallied above wave 3, that was my signal the uptrend was intact.

Be careful not to confuse the five-wave continuation pattern with the five-wave Elliott wave pattern! My continuation pattern is a completely different beast with opposite implications. The Elliott wave five-wave pattern is a finishing structure, while my pattern implies a continuation of the trend.

Is the market about to make a sharp move up?

Where are we now on the bigger picture?

Gold price spread betting chart

The major lows still stand out as a potential double bottom. And this interpretation implies a very large rally phase to at least the August 2013 high above $1,400. My third upper tramline in the top right corner is another potential target.

There are many hurdles along the way – and the first is the October high just up ahead (my pink bar). There are likely to be masses of buy-stops here. That means the odds are high that professionals will gun for them.

Taking out stops (called ‘running the stops’) is a popular sport among some professional traders, especially in the gold and silver futures markets. These markets trade in relatively small volumes compared with the currency markets.

But the market is in a steep uptrend with no major setback (yet). This is a rare event and at some stage, we will see such a dip.

It will be interesting to see if the market can make that leap to my pink bar on this leg. If it does, then I believe we could see the market make a sharp move up. It’ll move back down as the pros take their profits.

This is proving to be a very unusual gold market. And it may be telling us something about the state of the global economies.

• If you’re a new reader, or need a reminder about some of the methods I refer to in my trades, then do have a look at my introductory videos:

The essentials of tramline trading
Advanced tramline trading
An introduction to Elliott wave theory
Advanced trading with Elliott waves
Trading with Fibonacci levels
Trading with 'momentum'
Putting it all together

• Don't miss my next trading insight. To receive all my spread betting blog posts by email, as soon as I've written them, just sign up here . If you have any queries regarding MoneyWeek Trader, please contact us here. [xyz_lbx_custom_shortcode id=11]

 

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3 Responses

  1. 26/02/2014, Bronco Bill wrote

    For us long-term holders of the so called barbarous relic who have been buying the physical stuff on dips since 2001 is of no surprise to whats happening now.
    The monthly long-term chart looks excellent and a close at any months end above the 9 month EMA (today at 1322.92) could set the next stage in the fantastic gold story.
    On a daily basis it is now overbought so there could be now some back filling and profit taking etc maybe down to around the 1290 level.
    Whatever happens over the coming days John may I suggest that for the longer-term you exchange some of your trading profits for the physical yellow stuff before it all goes east and join us “gold bugs”.

  2. 27/02/2014, anne wrote

    Hi John and Bronco, speaking about “gold bugs”, what’s happened to Norman? seems very quiet lately. anne. ( last time i looked at the gold chart, i was thinking that it might have a chance at 1400, tho’ i may be wrong.)

  3. 03/03/2014, anne wrote

    Dear john, due to the ukraine mess, cld be on the brink of russian intervention. gld opened with gap up . this might mean that wave 3 is complete , support or wave 4 base wld be at1319.3 mar’14. this may mean that 1400 is guaranteed? what do you all think? anne

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