Betting on politics: Trump’s impeachment

Donald Trump © Getty images
How long can Donald Trump hold out?

Problems continue to mount for President Donald Trump. Not only is his popularity at low levels, but the decision to fire James Comey has backfired spectacularly, adding obstruction of justice to the list of potential crimes that he could end up being impeached for. So it’s a good time to focus on the impeachment or resignation betting.

At the moment Betfair is offering 2.04 (49%) on Trump leaving before the end of his first term, and 1.91 (52%) on him staying. However, if you think he will hang on, Paddy Power is offering 11/10 (48%) on him departing office in 2020 or later. Not only are these better odds, but Trump only has to survive two and a half years for the bet to pay off.

My take is that there is a significant chance that Trump will leave before the end of his time in office. Even he now admits that he can’t guarantee that his aides didn’t cross the line. What’s more, he still hasn’t learned that bullying, bombast and bluff only make things worse. However, the big question is whether the betting markets are properly valuing the chances of him leaving.

After all, even Richard Nixon managed to last 18 months into his second term after the Watergate scandal broke before being forced to resign. What’s more, Trump has the big advantage that the Republicans are in control of both parts of Congress (although many don’t particularly like him).However, if the Democrats regain Congress after the mid-term election, as I think they will, then they will be the ones in charge of the investigative process, and you’d expect any dirt to come out then.

So, I’m going to suggest that you bet on Trump departing office in 2019 (12/1) or 2020 or later (11/10) with Paddy Power. This works out at combined odds of 55.3%. If you properly weight your bet (as I always recommend that you do), you should put £8.61 of a hypothetical £10 betting unit on 2020 or later and £1.39 on 2019.

Merryn

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