For years, the retailer Marks & Spencer (M&S) was a byword for poor performance. Unfashionable clothes and lack of investment in stores, along with the general decline of the high street in the face of online shopping, are just some of the reasons put forward to explain the fact that its share price peaked back in 2007. A succession of leaders have tried to reboot the company, but until recently their efforts failed to stop its decline, as shown by the fact that its share price fell by roughly 80% between May 2015 and October 2022.
However, over the past two years, the shares have staged a comeback, more than tripling from a low of below 94p to 339p now. So has the business finally turned the corner, or is this just a “dead cat bounce”?
What's behind the M&S turnaround?
Some of the recent improvement is down to factors beyond M&S’s control. Like other retailers, it initially benefited from the end of the pandemic and the return of consumers to the high street. Problems with rival Waitrose have also led some shoppers to switch to M&S for food. Meanwhile, the recent cost-of-living crisis has seen many clothes buyers focus on affordable quality at the expense of high fashion.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
However, it’s hard to dispute that M&S deserves credit for embracing online sales, which now account for nearly a third of revenue. The company has also cut costs by boosting efficiencies, especially in logistics. It has closed down tired and poorly performing stores in favour of newer, more modern stores in better locations. Just two years into a long-term reorganisation, the potential gains are far from exhausted. At the same time, the closure of several well-known rival brands on the high street, as well as the continued expansion of its online businesses, should also help.
Overall, M&S has seen sales grow by just under 50% over the past three years, with its profits expanding fivefold during the same period. Sales are expected to keep growing over the next few years. Another sign that it has turned the corner is the decision at the end of last year to resume paying the dividend that it stopped during the pandemic. Operating margins have also gone up and it is achieving a double-digit return on capital employed. Despite this, the shares trade at only 12 times forecast 2026 earnings – the same valuation as Tesco and Sainsbury’s, both of which have been less successful recently.
As well as the strong prospects and cheap valuation, M&S’s share price continues to exhibit positive momentum. It is currently trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and has been the third best-performing share in the FTSE 100 (including dividends) over the past six months, only slightly behind Darktrace and Hargreaves Lansdown, which have been taken over. I would therefore suggest going long at the current price of 339p at £14 per 1p, with a stop loss of 269p. This would give you a total potential downside of £980.
This article was first published in MoneyWeek's magazine. Enjoy exclusive early access to news, opinion and analysis from our team of financial experts with a MoneyWeek subscription.
-
'Governments are launching an assault on the independence of central banks'Opinion Say goodbye to the era of central bank orthodoxy and hello to the new era of central bank dependency, says Jeremy McKeown
-
The most and least expensive countries to be an expat in 2025With some Brits fleeing the country to avoid seemingly ever-increasing taxes, we look at the most and least expensive countries to emigrate to.
-
'Governments are launching an assault on the independence of central banks'
Opinion Say goodbye to the era of central bank orthodoxy and hello to the new era of central bank dependency, says Jeremy McKeown
-
Why investors can no longer trust traditional statistical indicatorsOpinion The statistical indicators and data investors have relied on for decades are no longer fit for purpose. It's time to move on, says Helen Thomas
-
The most likely outcome of the AI boom is a big fallOpinion Like the dotcom boom of the late 1990s, AI is not paying off – despite huge investments being made in the hope of creating AI-based wealth
-
The rise of Robin Zeng: China’s billionaire battery kingRobin Zeng, a pioneer in EV batteries, is vying with Li Ka-shing for the title of Hong Kong’s richest person. He is typical of a new kind of tycoon in China
-
How retail investors can gain exposure to Lloyd’s of LondonIt’s hard for retail investors to get in on the action at Lloyd’s of London. Here are some of the ways to gain exposure
-
The goal of business is not profit, but virtueOpinion Serve your customers well, and the profits will follow, according to a new book. It rarely works the other way around, says Stuart Watkins
-
Earnings estimates are a rigged game – especially in the USThe number of US stocks beating earnings estimates tells us only that guidance has deliberately been set too low
-
Why is Britain's industrial base crumbling?Opinion More and more factories in the UK are closing, and the government doesn’t seem to care. What’s going on?
