One more crisis and Jeremy Corbyn could be PM
“Jeremy Corbyn is not going to be Prime Minister”, says Tony Blair. He’s wrong, says Merryn Somerset Webb. Corbyn is just one crisis away from Number 10.
Tony Blair agrees with us. How unexpected is that? In an article in the Observer this week he points out that the rise of Jeremy Corbyn is about the same thing as the rise of Trump, the SNP, Le Pen and Syriza.
They might look like they are demanding different things but they nonetheless reflect a post financial crisis fury. There is, says Blair, a "politics of parallel reality going on in which reason is an irritation, evidence a distraction, emotional impact is king and the only thing that counts is feeling good about it all."
This is a pretty good summary of what I saw in Yes voters during the Scottish referendum and it sums up the hype around Corbyn nicely too. But Blair then goes on to make a mistake.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
This rebellion against perceived authority isn't really one, he says "it doesn't alter the real reality". Trump won't be president. Scotland voted no. Syriza can only hang on by "switching realities" and "Jeremy Corbyn is not going to be prime minister of the UK."
This is where he is wrong. Scotland voted no, but the SNP is still in power in Scotland and still mucking up the running of Scotland. And Jeremy Corbyn could well become PM of the UK.
How? With a crisis. What, asks Charles Moore in the Telegraph, if the trouble in China is the start of something bigger, or if the Conservatives "fall to quarrelling" over the referendum as the refugee crisis worsens? It wouldn't take much for the "Tory hegemony, currently only three months old" to slip away.
Things aren't good out there, what with the money printing, debt, deflation and effects of an ageing population: "will our moderate and sane government really know what to do when the next jolt to the system comes?" Maybe not.
And then there will be an "electoral market for the immoderate and insane" politics on offer on the other side.
Sign up to Money Morning
Our team, led by award winning editors, is dedicated to delivering you the top news, analysis, and guides to help you manage your money, grow your investments and build wealth.
Merryn Somerset Webb started her career in Tokyo at public broadcaster NHK before becoming a Japanese equity broker at what was then Warburgs. She went on to work at SBC and UBS without moving from her desk in Kamiyacho (it was the age of mergers).
After five years in Japan she returned to work in the UK at Paribas. This soon became BNP Paribas. Again, no desk move was required. On leaving the City, Merryn helped The Week magazine with its City pages before becoming the launch editor of MoneyWeek in 2000 and taking on columns first in the Sunday Times and then in 2009 in the Financial Times
Twenty years on, MoneyWeek is the best-selling financial magazine in the UK. Merryn was its Editor in Chief until 2022. She is now a senior columnist at Bloomberg and host of the Merryn Talks Money podcast - but still writes for Moneyweek monthly.
Merryn is also is a non executive director of two investment trusts – BlackRock Throgmorton, and the Murray Income Investment Trust.
-
Christmas at Chatsworth: review of The Cavendish Hotel at Baslow
MoneyWeek Travel Matthew Partridge gets into the festive spirit at The Cavendish Hotel at Baslow and the Christmas market at Chatsworth
By Dr Matthew Partridge Published
-
Tycoon Truong My Lan on death row over world’s biggest bank fraud
Property tycoon Truong My Lan has been found guilty of a corruption scandal that dwarfs Malaysia’s 1MDB fraud and Sam Bankman-Fried’s crypto scam
By Jane Lewis Published
-
Beating inflation takes more luck than skill – but are we about to get lucky?
Opinion The US Federal Reserve managed to beat inflation in the 1980s. But much of that was down to pure luck. Thankfully, says Merryn Somerset Webb, the Bank of England may be about to get lucky.
By Merryn Somerset Webb Published
-
Rishi Sunak can’t fix all our problems – so why try?
Opinion Rishi Sunak’s Spring Statement is an attempt to plaster over problems the chancellor can’t fix. So should he even bother trying, asks Merryn Somerset Webb?
By Merryn Somerset Webb Published
-
Young people are becoming a scarce resource – we should value them more highly
Opinion In the last two years adults have been bizarrely unkind to children and young people. That doesn’t bode well for the future, says Merryn Somerset Webb.
By Merryn Somerset Webb Published
-
Ask for a pay rise – everyone else is
Opinion As inflation bites and the labour market remains tight, many of the nation's employees are asking for a pay rise. Merryn Somerset Webb explains why you should do that too.
By Merryn Somerset Webb Published
-
Why central banks should stick to controlling inflation
Opinion The world’s central bankers are stepping out of their traditional roles and becoming much more political. That’s a mistake, says Merryn Somerset Webb.
By Merryn Somerset Webb Published
-
How St Ives became St Tropez as the recovery drives prices sky high
Opinion Merryn Somerset Webb finds herself at the epicentre of Britain’s V-shaped recovery as pent-up demand flows straight into Cornwall’s restaurants and beaches.
By Merryn Somerset Webb Published
-
The real problem of Universal Basic Income (UBI)
Merryn's Blog April employment numbers showed 75 per cent fewer people in the US returned to employment compared to expectations. Merryn Somerset-Webb explains how excessive government support is causing a shortage of labour.
By Merryn Somerset Webb Published
-
Why an ageing population is not necessarily the disaster many people think it is
Opinion We’ve got used to the idea that an ageing population is a bad thing. But that’s not necessarily true, says Merryn Somerset Webb.
By Merryn Somerset Webb Published