We wrote last year that if you were in the market for a two-bedroom flat you'd be wise to wait a year or two before you bought, because the changes to the tax relief around buy-to-let would bring a flood of property on to the market. We will soon find out if we were right.
So this year, 25% of the mortgage interest costs of anyone who has borrowed to buy to let will get tax relief at only the basic rate of 20%. Next year it will be 50% and so on. The effect of this is nasty.
An illustration from RSM. Consider someone with a £600,000 property getting a 4% yield. After running costs, repairs, insurance and other costs, their net yield may only be just under 3% say around £17,700 per annum. With a mortgage at 60% loan-to-value and 4% interest, they would be paying out £14,400 in interest costs. So they would be making a net profit of £3,300.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
This year (assuming they are a 45% taxpayer) their bill is £1,485. Next year it will be just under £3,300 that's all the profit they currently make. In the year after, it will be £4,185, and just over £5,000 thereafter. By the time this is done, it will be costing them £1,700 to keep the show on the road and that assumes an interest-only mortgage and no rise in the rate.
Some numbers will be higher, some will be lower, and for all those who own outright none of this will make any difference. But as RSM says "the truth is that margins are getting tight for landlords". Rents could go up in some areas to cover the difference, but in most cases landlords will have already been charging what the market can bear and, of course, should Jeremy Corbyn end up as prime minister, rent controls are a given anyway.
This all matters. Lots of landlords don't feel they need to make much positive cash flow on their houses on an annual basis: their aim is to own a property outright at some point (so just getting the mortgage paid and being cash neutral will do) or to sell it on for capital gains.
But if their houses actually start to cost them on a monthly basis, the equation changes. Will they dig into non property income or savings to meet the gap, or will they sell? We suspect they will sell, something that will drag prices down across the board.
This is something landlords might want to think about sooner rather than later (best to sell before everyone else does ) and buyers will want to think about later rather than sooner (best to buy at the tail end of the rush to sell).
-
House prices to crash? Your house may still be making you money, but not for much longerOpinion If you’re relying on your property to fund your pension, you may have to think again. But, says Merryn Somerset Webb, if house prices start to fall there may be a silver lining.
-
Prepare your portfolio for recessionOpinion A recession is looking increasingly likely. Add in a bear market and soaring inflation, and things are going to get very complicated for investors, says Merryn Somerset Webb.
-
Investing for income? Here are six investment trusts to buy nowOpinion For many savers and investors, income is getting hard to find. But it's not impossible to find, says Merryn Somerset Webb. Here, she picks six investment trusts that are currently yielding more than 4%.
-
Stories are great – but investors should stick to realityOpinion Everybody loves a story – and investors are no exception. But it’s easy to get carried away, says Merryn Somerset Webb, and forget the underlying truth of the market.
-
Everything is collapsing at once – here’s what to do about itOpinion Equity and bond markets are crashing, while inflation destroys the value of cash. Merryn Somerset Webb looks at where investors can turn to protect their wealth.
-
Value is starting to emerge in the marketsOpinion If you are looking for long-term value in the markets, some is beginning to emerge, says Merryn Somerset Webb. Indeed, you may soon be able to buy traditionally expensive growth stocks on the cheap, too.
-
ESG investing could end up being a classic mistakeOpinion ESG investing has been embraced with enormous speed and zeal. But think long and hard before buying in, says Merryn Somerset Webb.
-
UK house prices will fall – but not for a few yearsOpinion UK house prices look out of reach for many. But the truth is that British property is surprisingly affordable, says Merryn Somerset Webb. Prices will fall at some point – but not yet.
