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Company directors are selling in droves - so should you
Investors wondering how much further the recent stock market rally can go might want to look at what company directors are doing. And then sell.
Investors wondering how much further the recent stock market rally can go might want to look at what company directors are doing. And then sell.
People pay attention todirectors' share deals. After all, as legitimate insiders, they should know better than anyone else exactly how economic conditions are affecting their firms.
The bad news for bulls is that right now they seem pretty nervous.
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Join more than 165,000 subscribers and keep yourself informed with latest financial news, insights and expert analysis to help you understand what really matters when it comes to your finances.
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Selling by directors has recently hit its highest level in more than a year. In August, company directors sold $6.2bn-worth of shares, the most since May 2008. Meanwhile, says research firm Trimtabs, total insider buying directors snapping up stock has been below $1bn for seven straight months.
Sure, there are many reasons why directors sell they might need the money for school fees or that second yacht. Some may even be forced into selling to meet margin calls on other investments or to fund a tax bill.
However, other indicators also point to markets looking over-priced for example, the Shiller price / earnings ratio for the S&P 500 (which compares share prices to average earnings over the past ten years) is now at 20, against a long-term average of just 15. So it's not too much of a stretch to conclude that most directors are selling for no other reason than that they think share prices are heading for a fall, and they want to cash in while the going's good.
Investors who have ridden the recent rally, particularly those with money in cyclical stocks, should consider following suit.
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Tim graduated with a history degree from Cambridge University in 1989 and, after a year of travelling, joined the financial services firm Ernst and Young in 1990, qualifying as a chartered accountant in 1994.
He then moved into financial markets training, designing and running a variety of courses at graduate level and beyond for a range of organisations including the Securities and Investment Institute and UBS. He joined MoneyWeek in 2007.
