How likely is a vote for Brexit? Ask pretty much anyone on either side (bar an official Vote Leave rep) and they will tell you that, however much they'd like it to, it won't happen.
The bookies (who are almost always right on this stuff) tell us that there is a 70% plus chance of us staying in the EU (IG Index puts it at 73% today).
At the same time the telephone polls are telling us that Remain will win with no particular bother. The all-guns-blazing approach of the government's Project Fear campaign makes it hard to see how anyone who doesn't understand how pointless economic forecasts are can vote "out".
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
It's also easy to dismiss the many online polls which show Leave and Remain campaigns running pretty much neck and neck, given that they hardly showed much in the way of accuracy in the run up to the Scottish referendum.
Finally, it is worth remembering, as Jonathan Allum points out in his newsletter The Blah, that in referendums far more than in general elections people tend to cleave to the status quo when they get a pencil and a ballot paper in their hands and that the polls tend to understate that effect as they clearly did in Quebec and in Scotland. But I still wonder.
I suspect the status quo effect won't be as high in this one as it was in Scotland, for example. The union between Scotland the rest of the UK is 300 years old and involves a complete monetary union alongside a complete fiscal union as well as a mishmash of family connections that makes most people neither completely Scottish, English or Welsh.
The union between the EU and the UK is completely different. We still have all our own institutions after 30 odd years of a sort-of union there are few fiscal and no monetary ties to break.
People also increasingly understand, I think, that there is no status quo here. The EU won't stay as it is it will either collapse under the weight of its cruel monetary union or it will carry on to the final destination outlined in its original design (full federalisation). When they vote there will be no box for "let's just leave things as they are". That isn't part of any deal.
And the polls pose an interesting puzzle too: telephone polls aren't as useful as they used to be (no one picks the landline up any more) and online polls were criticised after the Scottish referendum as being too biased to the opinions of the young. Yet the young are supposed to be more pro EU than the old, so it doesn't make sense surely for online polls to overstate the Leave vote (all comments from polling experts welcome on this one).
Also of interest is that international investors have Brexit very firmly on their worry list: the latest Global Fund Manager Survey from Bank of America Merril Lynch tells us that 27% of managers are feeling a little stressed about it (China's coming debt disaster is next on the list at 21%). As a result, they've got their lowest weighting to UK stocks since 2008. Sterling, says Allum, has its second most undervalued rating in the survey's history.
Perhaps this time the result really is, just as the polls suggest, too close to call.Obviously, I will be voting to leave, and I think you should too. To find out why, take a look at our latest report here.
-
Beating inflation takes more luck than skill – but are we about to get lucky?Opinion The US Federal Reserve managed to beat inflation in the 1980s. But much of that was down to pure luck. Thankfully, says Merryn Somerset Webb, the Bank of England may be about to get lucky.
-
Rishi Sunak can’t fix all our problems – so why try?Opinion Rishi Sunak’s Spring Statement is an attempt to plaster over problems the chancellor can’t fix. So should he even bother trying, asks Merryn Somerset Webb?
-
Young people are becoming a scarce resource – we should value them more highlyOpinion In the last two years adults have been bizarrely unkind to children and young people. That doesn’t bode well for the future, says Merryn Somerset Webb.
-
Ask for a pay rise – everyone else isOpinion As inflation bites and the labour market remains tight, many of the nation's employees are asking for a pay rise. Merryn Somerset Webb explains why you should do that too.
-
Why central banks should stick to controlling inflationOpinion The world’s central bankers are stepping out of their traditional roles and becoming much more political. That’s a mistake, says Merryn Somerset Webb.
-
How St Ives became St Tropez as the recovery drives prices sky highOpinion Merryn Somerset Webb finds herself at the epicentre of Britain’s V-shaped recovery as pent-up demand flows straight into Cornwall’s restaurants and beaches.
-
The real problem of Universal Basic Income (UBI)Merryn's Blog April employment numbers showed 75 per cent fewer people in the US returned to employment compared to expectations. Merryn Somerset-Webb explains how excessive government support is causing a shortage of labour.
-
Why an ageing population is not necessarily the disaster many people think it isOpinion We’ve got used to the idea that an ageing population is a bad thing. But that’s not necessarily true, says Merryn Somerset Webb.
