Small-cap investment trusts have made a big comeback

Small-cap companies in the bottom segment of the market came alive late last year, as have the funds that invest in them. The rally looks set to continue.

For much of 2019, smaller companies continued to lag larger companies, as they had in 2018. Smaller companies are more geared to the domestic economy than their bigger counterparts and last year many investors were worrying about the outlook for the UK. What’s more, the Woodford fiasco raised concerns about the liquidity of open-ended funds, causing many of them to reduce exposure to small-cap stocks.

But in the last quarter, and especially in December, the clouds lifted and share prices surged. Over the whole of 2019, the Numis Smaller Companies index (NSCI), comprising the bottom 10% of the UK market, returned 22.3%, 5% ahead of the FTSE 100. But if investment companies are excluded – a gauge known as the NSCI (XIC) – the gap increases to 7.9%. The Aim market returned 15%. 

A shrinking market

The NSCI comprises all 696 companies (of which 350 are investment companies) with a market value below £1.68bn and has a total value of £261bn. Including Aim, the number rises to 1,547 companies with a total value of £345bn compared with the £2,018bn value of the FTSE 100 index. 

Over time, the number of companies has been shrinking, but the size of the companies has become larger. The 346 NSCI (XIC) companies have an average market value of £444m compared with 1,067 companies and an average £24m in 1987. In 1955 the respective figures were 2,517 and £0.4m.

The small-cap investment manager has more  – and riskier – companies to research than the large-cap manager, each with far less coverage and less accessible management. It wouldn’t be worth bothering unless smaller companies outperformed larger companies over the long term. And they do.

According to research by Professors Paul Marsh and Scott Evans of the London Business School, the long-term outperformance of the NSCI (XIC) is an annual 3.3% over the 65 years since 1955: 14.8% per annum versus 11.5% for the All-Share index. This outperformance is replicated in most countries. The global small-cap outperformance has averaged 4.2% since 2000.

Following such strong performance, UK smaller companies ceased to be undervalued in 2019. The professors estimated that their price/earnings multiple had increased to 14.9, well above the long-term average of 12.8 and only slightly lower than the multiple for the All Share index, though low bond yields justify higher multiples. The valuation of smaller companies relative to larger ones had not reached the extremes seen in 2007, but continued outperformance needed superior earnings growth.

Discounts have fallen fast 

Investors in small-cap investment trusts benefited in 2019 from falling discounts to net asset value. These averaged over 10% at the start of the year, but the mainstream trusts, such as Aberforth, BlackRock, Throgmorton, Henderson, Invesco Perpetual, JP Morgan and Standard Life were trading at, or very near to, premiums to asset value at year-end, as were the three mid-cap trusts. 

Moreover, their net assets continued to outperform the NSCI (XIC), often by large margins; in Standard Life’s case by 19% and JP Morgan’s by 25%. Of the 16 trusts in the UK mid-caps and small-cap sectors, 11 returned over 40% and five over 50%.

The upshot? Liquidity worries are making it difficult for open-ended funds to own the smallest companies and Aim stocks, giving closed-end funds (investment trusts) a competitive advantage. Throw in continued strength in the NSCI (XIC) and at the start of this year respectable, though lower, returns from the mainstream mid- and small-cap trusts looked likely. And now, after February’s sharp setback, the sector again looks good value.

Recommended

Where will house prices go in 2023?
House prices

Where will house prices go in 2023?

We explore what could happen to house prices in 2023 as the market continues to slow down.
24 Mar 2023
What is inflation and how will it affect you?
Inflation

What is inflation and how will it affect you?

There has been much talk of inflation recently. But what exactly is it and what does it mean for our money?
24 Mar 2023
3 success stories set for long-term growth
Investments

3 success stories set for long-term growth

A professional investor tells us where he’d put his money. This week: Felix Wintle, manager of the VT Tyndall North American Fund, selects three favou…
24 Mar 2023
Share tips of the week – 24 March
Investments

Share tips of the week – 24 March

MoneyWeek’s comprehensive guide to the best of this week’s share tips from the rest of the UK's financial pages
24 Mar 2023

Most Popular

Where will house prices go in 2023?
House prices

Where will house prices go in 2023?

We explore what could happen to house prices in 2023 as the market continues to slow down.
24 Mar 2023
Will energy prices go down in 2023?
Personal finance

Will energy prices go down in 2023?

Ofgem’s price cap is now predicted to fall below £2,000, based on average typical use, from July, for the first time since 2022. We have all the detai…
21 Mar 2023
5 top UK tech stocks
Investments

5 top UK tech stocks

The UK market has never been considered a fertile hunting ground for tech stars. But there are plenty of promising companies beyond the old economy, s…
23 Mar 2023