Which Covid-19 vaccines look likely to be the best bets?
The race to produce a treatment to prevent Covid-19 has hundreds of entrants. How should investors approach it? Matthew Partridge reports.
![](https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/QBxHSYLiJHwwCTv6xLUFC9-1280-80.jpg)
AstraZeneca has said it hopes to start distributing Oxford University’s Covid-19 vaccine by the end of 2020, says Samuel Lovett in The Independent. Preliminary trial results revealed that it induces a “strong immune response within humans” and “appears to be safe”. More detailed results for this vaccine are expected to be available between September and November. Meanwhile, the company has struck deals with the UK, France, Germany and the US to deliver supplies of the vaccine, and will start manufacturing it even before trials finish, with the aim of making two billion doses.
The results may be positive enough to continue with trials, but they “weren’t enough to convince the market”, says Bloomberg. AstraZeneca’s shares fell back early this week. Good news had been “widely expected”, while there are also concerns over whether its vaccine can match the progress seen at rival companies such as Pfizer, BioNtech SE and Moderna. The decision to prioritise a two-dose regime (rather than a single injection) and the fact that the end-of-year deadline is later than the previous promise of a September delivery are also “dampening” some of the enthusiasm.
Hedging bets
In a reminder that AstraZeneca is not the only company close to bringing a vaccine to market, even the British government, one of the biggest backers of Oxford University’s research, now seems to be hedging its bets by working with rivals, says The Daily Telegraph. Having previously agreed to buy 100 million doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine, it has signed additional deals to “secure 90 million doses of two possible Covid-19 vaccines from the Pfizer and BioNTech alliance and French group Valneva”. This could rise to 140 million doses if the Valneva vaccine proves to be “effective and suitable”.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
![https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/flexiimages/mw70aro6gl1676370748.jpg](https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/flexiimages/mw70aro6gl1676370748-320-80.jpg)
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Betting on vaccines from more than one company is an approach investors should adopt too, says Lex in the Financial Times. Formerly considered a “neglected Cinderella industry”, vaccines have “never been so hot”. But there are 170 Covid-19 vaccines in development, so many “also-rans” will inevitably suffer from “irrevocable losses”. Investors should back different approaches to “spread risk”. In any case, the need for “multiple success stories” means that this “is not a winner-takes-all market”, with rewards likely to be spread across multiple firms.
Investors should also note that even if they do manage to bet on a winner, “sales and profits might not flow as much as hoped”, says Charley Grant in The Wall Street Journal. Given that the drug industry will want to avoid “heavy scrutiny” over its pricing practices during the upcoming US election, it will be under pressure to price a vaccine “modestly”. More broadly, the “euphoric trading” that has seen the share price of biotech companies such as Moderna triple means that “caution is always warranted”.
Sign up for MoneyWeek's newsletters
Get the latest financial news, insights and expert analysis from our award-winning MoneyWeek team, to help you understand what really matters when it comes to your finances.
Matthew graduated from the University of Durham in 2004; he then gained an MSc, followed by a PhD at the London School of Economics.
He has previously written for a wide range of publications, including the Guardian and the Economist, and also helped to run a newsletter on terrorism. He has spent time at Lehman Brothers, Citigroup and the consultancy Lombard Street Research.
Matthew is the author of Superinvestors: Lessons from the greatest investors in history, published by Harriman House, which has been translated into several languages. His second book, Investing Explained: The Accessible Guide to Building an Investment Portfolio, is published by Kogan Page.
As senior writer, he writes the shares and politics & economics pages, as well as weekly Blowing It and Great Frauds in History columns He also writes a fortnightly reviews page and trading tips, as well as regular cover stories and multi-page investment focus features.
Follow Matthew on Twitter: @DrMatthewPartri
-
Landlords ordered to make rental properties more energy efficient by 2030
The government has said rental properties must have a minimum EPC rating of C by 2030. We explain how much it will cost landlords to upgrade their buy-to-let portfolio
By Marc Shoffman Published
-
Primark owner Associated British Foods is an overlooked gem going cheap — should you buy shares?
Associated British Foods, the owner of Primark, is a family-owned business, which means it is passed over by the increasingly popular passive investment funds. That spells opportunity for private investors, says Jamie Ward.
By Jamie Ward Published
-
Primark owner Associated British Foods is an overlooked gem going cheap — should you buy shares?
Associated British Foods, the owner of Primark, is a family-owned business, which means it is passed over by the increasingly popular passive investment funds. That spells opportunity for private investors, says Jamie Ward.
By Jamie Ward Published
-
Trump's tariffs and a shrinking market for alcohol deal double blow to Diageo
Donald Trump's tariffs are a further headache for drinks giant Diageo, which is already being buffeted by a decline in alcohol consumption.
By Dr Matthew Partridge Published
-
Three stocks in recruitment companies with promising recovery plays
Recruitment agency Robert Walters and its peers are struggling, but now's the time to buy, says Rupert Hargreaves
By Rupert Hargreaves Published
-
Four UK data companies to buy now
Companies that create, harness or turn data into a valuable offering could be sitting on a hugely profitable gold mine. Rupert Hargreaves picks four of the best UK data companies to buy now.
By Rupert Hargreaves Published
-
China's DeepSeek AI is a 'Sputnik moment' for the US
The US is facing a new “Sputnik moment” with the sudden appearance of China's DeepSeek AI firm wiping $1 trillion off the value of US tech stocks.
By Alex Rankine Published
-
Forever young: investment opportunities in supporting an ageing population
Ageing populations have prompted fruitful research in sectors ranging from pharmaceuticals and medical equipment to glasses and hearing aids
By Dr Mike Tubbs Published
-
Luxury stocks rally after Richemont sales boom – is there hope for the sector?
Cartier owner Richemont’s robust results have boosted sentiment about luxury stocks – but are investors getting carried away?
By Dr Matthew Partridge Published
-
What’s the outlook for the shipping industry in 2025?
All we know for certain about the year ahead is that it will be volatile. But the container shipping sector thrives on choppy waters
By Rupert Hargreaves Published