Like it or not, UK house prices appear to be rallying

The UK housing market seems to be perking up. But that may not be a good thing, says John Stepek.

UK house prices are back on the rise

In January, house prices across the UK rose by 1.9%, according to the latest Nationwide data. That doesn’t sound like much, and it’s still well below inflation. But it’s up from 1.4% in December, and as Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief economist, points out, that followed on from “12 successive months in which annual price growth had been below 1%”.

It also chimes with data from other surveys, including the most recent reading from the Office for National Statistics, which suggests that even before the election, prices were starting to pick up across the country.  

Subscribe to MoneyWeek

Become a smarter, better informed investor with MoneyWeek.

We’ve pointed out on a number of occasions that the ideal would be for prices to continue to stagnate in “real” terms (ie, after inflation, and wage inflation specifically). That way, prices move closer to affordability, making life easier for everyone and taking some political heat out of the issue. Yet at the same time, you don’t get a crash threatening either household balance sheets or the banking system. 

However, with the economy still growing, the labour market healthy, and the most acute phase of political uncertainty in the past, it seems like it might be wishful thinking to hope for moderation in the one part of the UK economy most prone to epic boom and bust. 

Advertisement - Article continues below

What might make the difference? Geopolitics is only tangential, and has the biggest effect at the higher end of the market. Local politics matters more, but given the crackdown on landlords that we’ve already seen, and the general mixed feelings towards Help-to-Buy, I don’t see the government making a huge difference either to supply or demand this year – that may change, we’ll see what’s in the Budget in March.  

What matters most – as it always does – is the supply of mortgage credit. One reason prices perked up towards the end of 2019 is that mortgages became cheaper. The more people can borrow, the more they will pay and the higher house prices will go. It’s that simple. 

So if you really want to know what’ll happen next, you have to look at interest rates. If the Bank of England decides to cut rates again tomorrow at Mark Carney’s final meeting as governor, then like it or not, I think a first half rally (at least) for house prices would be on the cards. If the Bank holds firm at the lofty heights of 0.75%, then perhaps we’ll continue to bounce along in the low-single digits, at least for now. 

In the longer run, a healthy economy would point to higher rates. But given that central banks are not keen generally to hike rates again until they can see the whites of inflation’s eyes – that might be some way off.  

We’re not saying you should rush out to buy a house – that’s not a decision you should predicate on anything other than your own circumstances and what you can afford (and investing in residential property as a landlord is hardly being encouraged by government policies just now). But don’t be surprised if prices start to pick up again.



House prices

UK house prices may be heading for a Boris bounce

The latest survey of estate agents and surveyors from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors is "unambiguously positive" – suggesting house pric…
16 Jan 2020

Are UK house prices really on the rebound?

The latest house price data from the Office for National Statistics paint a picture of a housing market that is showing signs of rallying. That's not …
15 Jan 2020
House prices

Have UK house prices turned the corner?

The average price of a house in the UK rose by 0.8% on the year in November, the fastest pace since April.
5 Dec 2019
House prices

House prices are still far too high – but things are improving slowly

UK house prices crept higher in November, with the strongest growth since April. But the drift towards greater affordability in Britain’s most dangero…
29 Nov 2019

Most Popular


Three things matter for the UK housing market now – and “location” isn’t one of them

The UK housing market is frozen. And when it does eventually thaw out, the traditional factors that drive prices will no longer apply. The day of reck…
1 Apr 2020

What does the coronavirus crisis mean for UK house prices?

With the whole country in lockdown, the UK property market is closed for business. John Stepek looks at what that means for UK house prices, housebuil…
27 Mar 2020

Has the stockmarket hit rock bottom yet?

The world's stockmarkets continue on their wild and disorientating rollercoaster ride. Investors are still gripped by fear. So, asks John Stepek, have…
2 Apr 2020
Small business

Furlough: what does it mean and how does it affect me?

Many companies have “furloughed” employees after they have shut down because of the coronavirus. But what does furlough mean and how does the scheme w…
30 Mar 2020