US property prices are heading for slump
A wave of forced sellers could crash American house prices once social-distancing restrictions are lifted.
“A US housing crisis is coming,” says Danielle DiMartino Booth on Bloomberg. The American mortgage market was at the centre of the 2007 financial crisis, but house prices are now up by 117% from their pre-crisis peak. This time the problem is not “rampant speculation or subprime mortgage fraud”.
Instead a wave of forced sellers could crash prices once social-distancing restrictions are lifted. Heavy losses in the stockmarket could precipitate a “silver tsunami” as older homeowners are forced to downsize early. Yet surging unemployment means there will be few buyers to meet the supply surge.
Massive state intervention should provide a backstop to the residential mortgage market, says The Economist. The Federal Reserve will buy unlimited amounts of mortgage-backed securities. Yet the same cannot be said of commercial property, where leveraged real-estate investment trusts (Reits) cannot afford for rent payments to dry up. “Commercial real estate and social distancing don’t mix,” says Stephen Wilmot in The Wall Street Journal. Reits have taken a beating on both sides of the Atlantic, even though their balance sheets are in better shape than in 2008. While retail space is the obvious casualty of social distancing, a deep recession will also be grim for office and warehouse landlords. “For all its reassuring familiarity,” property is “a surprisingly risky business.”
MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Get the latest financial news, insights and expert analysis from our award-winning MoneyWeek team, to help you understand what really matters when it comes to your finances.
Alex is an investment writer who has been contributing to MoneyWeek since 2015. He has been the magazine’s markets editor since 2019.
Alex has a passion for demystifying the often arcane world of finance for a general readership. While financial media tends to focus compulsively on the latest trend, the best opportunities can lie forgotten elsewhere.
He is especially interested in European equities – where his fluent French helps him to cover the continent’s largest bourse – and emerging markets, where his experience living in Beijing, and conversational Chinese, prove useful.
Hailing from Leeds, he studied Philosophy, Politics and Economics at the University of Oxford. He also holds a Master of Public Health from the University of Manchester.
-
Reeves urged to axe stamp duty from UK shares held in an ISAChancellor Rachel Reeves is reportedly considering axing stamp duty from UK shares held in stocks and shares ISAs. What could it mean for your portfolio?
-
Family investment companies explained: how the ultra wealthy shield their money from the taxmanWealthy families are increasingly turning to family investment companies to keep more of their money away from HMRC – but what are these arrangements and how do they work?
-
Halifax: House price slump continues as prices slide for the sixth consecutive monthUK house prices fell again in September as buyers returned, but the slowdown was not as fast as anticipated, latest Halifax data shows. Where are house prices falling the most?
-
Rents hit a record high - but is the opportunity for buy-to-let investors still strong?UK rent prices have hit a record high with the average hitting over £1,200 a month says Rightmove. Are there still opportunities in buy-to-let?
-
Where to find the best returns from student accommodationStudent accommodation can be a lucrative investment if you know where to look.
-
Revealed: the cheapest cities to own a home in BritainNew research reveals the cheapest cities to own a home, taking account of mortgage payments, utility bills and council tax
-
Buy-to-let returns fall 59% amid higher mortgage ratesBuy-to-let returns are slumping as the cost of borrowing spirals.
-
North outperforming the South for property investorsThe property market in the North of England is outperforming the South for both capital appreciation and rental yields.
-
UK house prices: half of sellers cut asking prices to secure a saleProperty price reductions have reached their highest level in at least nine years.
-
Halifax: House prices fall for the fourth month in a rowHigher interest rates have wiped nearly £1,000 off the average UK house price between June and July.