Nouriel Roubini: lacklustre recovery followed by a depression

We may see a U-shaped recovery at first, but then will come the L-shaped depression, says Nouriel Roubini.

This crisis may give way to a “lacklustre U-shaped recovery” this year, says Nouriel Roubini, the economist known for predicting the 2007 housing-market crash. But “an L-shaped ‘Greater Depression’ will follow”.

Global debt levels were already perilously high. Now, government spending to tackle the crisis will bring massive deficits. Worsening demographics will maintain the pressure on public finances even after Covid-19.

The loss of income for households and companies will bring rising defaults. Together with huge spare capacity in the economy that will ensure a sluggish recovery and may create deflation. As central banks battle this through unconventional monetary policies that amount to currency debasement, expect stagflation (stagnant growth paired with inflation). 

Digital disruption means that income and wealth gaps will widen further. This will combine with fears about supply-chain security to encourage nationalism, populism and xenophobia. The results will include de-globalisation and a backlash against democracy. 

The US-China stand-off will mean decoupling in trade, investment, data, technology and monetary arrangements. This diplomatic break-up may usher in a new cold war, fought as cyberwarfare. 

Finally, environmental disruption and climate change will wreck havoc – including future pandemics.

These risks,”already looming large before Covid-19 struck”, threaten to sweep “the entire global economy into a decade of despair”.

Recommended

When will interest rates go up?
UK Economy

When will interest rates go up?

New interest rates will be announced this month – we look at whether they will go up and what the impact will be.
5 Dec 2022
Heated airer vs tumble dryer – which is cheaper?
Personal finance

Heated airer vs tumble dryer – which is cheaper?

What is the most cost effective way to dry your clothes – a heated airer or a tumble dryer? We compare the costs.
5 Dec 2022
Best savings accounts – December 2022
Savings

Best savings accounts – December 2022

Interest rates on cash savings are making a comeback. We look at the best savings accounts on the market now
5 Dec 2022
Scottish Mortgage managers reassure investors about its recent poor performance
Investment trusts

Scottish Mortgage managers reassure investors about its recent poor performance

After a spectacular couple of decades, the Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust has fallen by 40% this year. As its managers address shareholder concern…
5 Dec 2022

Most Popular

Is it cheaper to leave the heating on low all day?
Personal finance

Is it cheaper to leave the heating on low all day?

The weather is getting colder and energy bills are rising, but is it really cheaper to leave the heating on low all day or should you only turn it on …
1 Dec 2022
Radiator vs electric heater – which is cheaper?
Personal finance

Radiator vs electric heater – which is cheaper?

We compare the costs, pros and cons of radiators and electric heaters and see which one will help keep your energy bill as low as possible.
28 Nov 2022
State pension errors – why tens of thousands of mothers could be missing out on millions in state pension payments
State pensions

State pension errors – why tens of thousands of mothers could be missing out on millions in state pension payments

LCP launches Mothers Missing Millions campaign amid DWP state pension errors.
3 Dec 2022