Nouriel Roubini: lacklustre recovery followed by a depression

We may see a U-shaped recovery at first, but then will come the L-shaped depression, says Nouriel Roubini.

This crisis may give way to a “lacklustre U-shaped recovery” this year, says Nouriel Roubini, the economist known for predicting the 2007 housing-market crash. But “an L-shaped ‘Greater Depression’ will follow”.

Global debt levels were already perilously high. Now, government spending to tackle the crisis will bring massive deficits. Worsening demographics will maintain the pressure on public finances even after Covid-19.

The loss of income for households and companies will bring rising defaults. Together with huge spare capacity in the economy that will ensure a sluggish recovery and may create deflation. As central banks battle this through unconventional monetary policies that amount to currency debasement, expect stagflation (stagnant growth paired with inflation). 

Digital disruption means that income and wealth gaps will widen further. This will combine with fears about supply-chain security to encourage nationalism, populism and xenophobia. The results will include de-globalisation and a backlash against democracy. 

The US-China stand-off will mean decoupling in trade, investment, data, technology and monetary arrangements. This diplomatic break-up may usher in a new cold war, fought as cyberwarfare. 

Finally, environmental disruption and climate change will wreck havoc – including future pandemics.

These risks,”already looming large before Covid-19 struck”, threaten to sweep “the entire global economy into a decade of despair”.

Recommended

Gold has been incredibly boring to own – but that’s no bad thing right now
Gold

Gold has been incredibly boring to own – but that’s no bad thing right now

Stocks, bonds and cryptocurrencies have all seen big falls this year. But gold remains at its one-year average. It may be dull, but it’s doing what it…
29 Jun 2022
A UK-listed multinational engineer with strong growth and rising dividends
Share tips

A UK-listed multinational engineer with strong growth and rising dividends

Spirax-Sarco is a world-leading engineer making consistent progress in three niche markets, with an order book at an all-time high.
29 Jun 2022
Indulge your wild side with a safari in deepest Kent
Travel and holidays

Indulge your wild side with a safari in deepest Kent

Get up close to the animals at Port Lympne Hotel and Reserve, says Matthew Partridge
29 Jun 2022
How to find the best dividend stocks
Income investing

How to find the best dividend stocks

Stocks that pay dividends tend to outperform the market over the long run - as well as providing an income. Here, Rupert Hargreaves explains the best …
28 Jun 2022

Most Popular

Market crash: have we hit bottom or is there worse to come?
Stockmarkets

Market crash: have we hit bottom or is there worse to come?

For a little while, markets looked like they were about to embark on a full-on crash. And that could still happen, says Dominic Frisby. Today, he look…
27 Jun 2022
Prepare your portfolio for recession
Investment strategy

Prepare your portfolio for recession

A recession is looking increasingly likely. Add in a bear market and soaring inflation, and things are going to get very complicated for investors, sa…
27 Jun 2022
Interest rates are rising, here are the best savings accounts on the market
Savings

Interest rates are rising, here are the best savings accounts on the market

With inflation at more than 9%, your savings are not going to keep pace with the rising cost of living. But you can at least slow the rate at which yo…
24 Jun 2022