Richard Bernstein: we're still only in the first phase of this bear market
Bear markets have three phases, says Richard Bernstein, founder of Richard Bernstein Advisors. And we're still only in phase one.
Richard Bernstein, chief executive, Richard Bernstein Advisors
“Bear markets have three phases,” Richard Bernstein, the founder of the $9.5bn asset manager that bears his name and former chief investment strategist at Merrill Lynch, tells Barron’s. “The first is that investors view it as temporary, the second is that it’s worse than anyone could have expected, and finally, that it will never end.”
It’s clear that investors are still trying to guess whether the bottom has arrived and whether there are already opportunities. That suggests we are still in the first phase of this crisis.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE

Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
The US is already in a deep recession that will get worse. “Unemployment is going to be a lot higher than people could ever imagine. Whether it’s 15% or 20% – who knows?”. So he still favours government bonds, defensive stocks such as consumer staples and healthcare, and gold. The time will come to buy more cyclical sectors, but “the early bird doesn’t catch the worm”, he says in a recent update for investors. History suggests that it’s better to buy cyclicals such as basic materials six months after the market bottoms rather than six months early, so wait for the economy to turn.
But we should already be asking what people will be worrying about in 12-18 months’ time. He thinks the recovery will be slow and weak, but the amount of stimulus being pumped into the economy worldwide will increase the risk that is accompanied by inflation. “We won’t have a V-shaped recovery … the only question in my mind is whether we have stagnation or even stagflation.”
-
December 2023 NS&I Premium Bond winners - check now to see what you’ve won
If you hold money in NS&I Premium Bonds, you can check from today (2 December) to see if you have won in the December prize draw. Here’s how to check.
By Vaishali Varu Published
-
OpenAI – corporate drama unleashed
OpenAI, the firm behind ChatGPT, was in uproar as its boss was booted out, briefly snapped up by Microsoft and then brought back again.
By Dr Matthew Partridge Published
-
Halifax: House price slump continues as prices slide for the sixth consecutive month
UK house prices fell again in September as buyers returned, but the slowdown was not as fast as anticipated, latest Halifax data shows. Where are house prices falling the most?
By Kalpana Fitzpatrick Published
-
Rents hit a record high - but is the opportunity for buy-to-let investors still strong?
UK rent prices have hit a record high with the average hitting over £1,200 a month says Rightmove. Are there still opportunities in buy-to-let?
By Marc Shoffman Published
-
Pension savers turn to gold investments
Investors are racing to buy gold to protect their pensions from a stock market correction and high inflation, experts say
By Ruth Emery Published
-
Where to find the best returns from student accommodation
Student accommodation can be a lucrative investment if you know where to look.
By Marc Shoffman Published
-
Best investing apps
We round up the best investing apps. Looking for an easy-to-use app to help you start investing, keep track of your portfolio or make trades on the go?
By Ruth Emery Last updated
-
The top funds to invest in - November 2023
Tips Investors are focused on income strategies and FTSE heavyweights. We look at what investors have been adding to their portfolios in the last month
By Vaishali Varu Last updated
-
The world’s best bargain stocks
Searching for bargain stocks with Alec Cutler of the Orbis Global Balanced Fund, who tells Andrew Van Sickle which sectors are being overlooked.
By Andrew Van Sickle Published
-
Revealed: the cheapest cities to own a home in Britain
New research reveals the cheapest cities to own a home, taking account of mortgage payments, utility bills and council tax
By Ruth Emery Published