Beware: things are not normal
With markets are all over the place, it is hard for investors to know what to do. But there is a strong chance that the assets that have done well over the last few years won’t do the same over the next few.


This is not a normal environment – and there is no reason to think it should be. The last decade has seen a variety of extraordinary monetary experiments and the last two years have jumped every possible shark. We’ve seen rolling economic shutdowns, a new level of quantitative easing (QE), helicopter money, insanely-low interest rates, the biggest recession ever, and of course, the biggest recovery ever.
We’ve watched vast fortunes being made in tech stocks and in cryptocurrencies – and of course, in housing. Now we have supply crunches, the (fast) return of inflation, a shift in power from capital to labour, and one hell of a pivot from behind-the-curve central banks. With all that in mind you should not be particularly surprised that markets are all over the place, or for that matter that seeing through the noise is tricky.
It is hard to know what to do. However there is one thing it is increasingly clear that you should not do – and that is to retreat to the perceived safety of the assets that have done you well over the last few years. There is a strong chance they won’t do the same over the next few. Which assets do I mean?
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE

Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
First up is US stocks and tech stocks in particular. Keeping too many of these, says Ben Inker of GMO, is likely to be the first big mistake investors make in 2022. Their outperformance in 2020 and 2021 cemented the idea that they are the lowest-risk, highest-return version of equities ever – and recent volatility aside, a safe long-term option. But their outperformance has also made the US expensive – and so remarkably unsafe. You would be better, says Inker, to cut your US exposure and move into China and emerging market equities (much cheaper).
Beware frothy valuations
Next is private equity and venture capital. Those worried about the future might see that some institutions have made fortunes here and pile in too. There are all sorts of problems with this (the difficulty of selling private assets in tricky times being an obvious one). But the key thing is price: valuations are “frothy” – too frothy to compensate for the risks. Remember too that the exit route for private equity (the bit where you get the money) is via public markets. If public markets aren’t prepared to pay as much for growth as they were (that’s why tech stocks are falling) private equity valuations obviously have to fall too. This is not a safe place to be.
Third is US bonds. When markets fell in early 2020, US Treasuries were “wonderfully protective.” But the main reason bonds outperform in bad times is because central banks can and do cut rates into the downturn. This option wasn’t available in the likes of Switzerland and Sweden in 2020. The result? Their “previously reliable defensiveness” was no longer available. That may now be the case with Treasuries. They protected you in 2020. They probably won’t in 2022.
Eagle-eyed readers will have noticed something here – the core problem with all these three things is price. A bond can only protect you if it isn’t already horribly overpriced. A very expensive growth stock can only keep making you money if investor perception of the value of that growth doesn’t change. A private equity investment can only make you money if you don’t overpay for it. You can only think that these things are safe if you think their price doesn’t matter. It usually does.
Get the latest financial news, insights and expert analysis from our award-winning MoneyWeek team, to help you understand what really matters when it comes to your finances.
Merryn Somerset Webb started her career in Tokyo at public broadcaster NHK before becoming a Japanese equity broker at what was then Warburgs. She went on to work at SBC and UBS without moving from her desk in Kamiyacho (it was the age of mergers).
After five years in Japan she returned to work in the UK at Paribas. This soon became BNP Paribas. Again, no desk move was required. On leaving the City, Merryn helped The Week magazine with its City pages before becoming the launch editor of MoneyWeek in 2000 and taking on columns first in the Sunday Times and then in 2009 in the Financial Times
Twenty years on, MoneyWeek is the best-selling financial magazine in the UK. Merryn was its Editor in Chief until 2022. She is now a senior columnist at Bloomberg and host of the Merryn Talks Money podcast - but still writes for Moneyweek monthly.
Merryn is also is a non executive director of two investment trusts – BlackRock Throgmorton, and the Murray Income Investment Trust.
-
Will “Liberation Day” strike again?
Donald Trump’s 90-day tariff pause comes to an end on 9 July. Can we expect further market turmoil?
-
Israel claims victory in the '12-day war' with Iran
Donald Trump may have announced a ceasefire in the 12-day war between Israel and Iran, but what comes next depends on what happens internally in Iran
-
Is Donald Trump putting the US dollar in danger?
Donald Trump's administration sees one of its greatest advantages – the US dollar – as a burden. Gold is the obvious beneficiary, says Cris Sholto Heaton.
-
The British railway industry is in rude health – here's why investors should jump aboard
The railway industry has bounced back from the devastating impact of the pandemic and is entering a new phase of development – and profitability
-
AGMs: a unique selling point for investment trusts that investors should capitalise on
Opinion Shareholder meetings aren’t just a regulatory requirement – they are a way to communicate with investors
-
A cyclical case for UK stocks
Opinion Depressed margins and relatively low valuations mean the UK market could rally strongly as conditions improve, says Cris Sholto Heaton.
-
Infrastructure investing: a haven of stable growth amid market turmoil
From booming construction in emerging markets to digital and green transitions, the infrastructure sector offers security, returns and long-term opportunities
-
The costly myth of “sell in May”
Opinion May 2025's strong returns for US stocks have once again shown that putting too much weight on seasonal patterns will only make investors poorer, says Max King
-
Who’s driving Tesla?
As Elon Musk steps back from government with his eyes on the stars, investors ask if he’s still behind the wheel at his electric-car maker.
-
Investment opportunities in the world of Coca-Cola
There is far more to Coca-Cola than just one giant firm. The companies that bottle and distribute the ubiquitous soft drink are promising investments in their own right.