Halifax: UK house price growth derailed by Autumn Budget build-up

Annual house price growth hit its lowest level since March 2024 last month as uncertainty about the the Autumn Budget weighed on the property market.

The latest Halifax House Price Index shows Autumn Budget speculation kept property value growth down across the UK, while the south of England saw declines.

Average house price growth was flat across the UK on a monthly basis and slowed annually from 1.9% in October to 0.7% in November, according to Halifax.

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This puts average UK house prices at £299,892.

The data coincides with the build-up to the Autumn Budget when many homebuyers and sellers are reported to have paused activity due to rumours about changes to stamp duty and other property taxes.

Amanda Bryden, head of mortgages at Halifax, viewed the figures positively.

“This consistency in average prices reflects what has been one of the most stable years for the housing market over the last decade. Even with the changes to stamp duty back in spring and some uncertainty ahead of the Autumn Budget, property values have remained steady," she said.

“While slower growth may disappoint some existing homeowners, it’s welcome news for first-time buyers. Comparing property prices to average incomes, affordability is now at its strongest since late 2015. Taking into account today’s higher interest rates, mortgage costs as a share of income are at their lowest level in around three years.”

What is happening in the UK housing market?

It has been a tense couple of months for the housing market. Demand has been hit by Autumn Budget speculation since September. This appears to have had the biggest impact in the south of England.

In London prices fell by 1.0%, the South East by 0.3% and Eastern England by 0.1%.

A different picture emerges in the rest of the UK. Northern Ireland remained the strongest performing nation or region in the UK, with average property prices rising by 8.9% annually.

Scotland recorded annual price growth of 3.7% in November, while average values in Wales were up 1.9%.

In England, the North West recorded the highest annual growth rate, with property prices rising by 3.2%, followed by the North East with growth of 2.9%

Will house prices rise in 2026?

It’s been a stop-start year for house prices in 2025. Values were boosted by a rush to beat the drop in stamp duty thresholds in April but there has been a slowdown since September ahead of the Autumn Budget.

Nationally, house prices are still growing albeit at a regional rate. But there are regional differences, with the south of England dragging prices down. Price dips in the south may also be exacerbated by the mansion tax that will be introduced in April 2028.

For now though, estate agents and analysts appear hopeful that with the Autumn Budget out the way and expectations of an interest rate cut before Christmas, the housing market could be set for a boost.

Bryden added: “Looking ahead, with market activity steady and expectations of further interest rate reductions to come, we anticipate property prices will continue to grow gradually into 2026.”

Savills is currently forecasting 4% growth in 2026.

But Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank, is slightly more pessimistic.

He said: “Both main UK indices show how pre-Budget uncertainty pushed house price growth close to zero. Clarity has now returned, but an array of tax rises, which include an income tax threshold freeze, will increasingly squeeze demand and prices.

“Offsetting that is the fact that mortgage rates are expected to drift lower next year as the base rate bottoms out at around 3.25%.”