US GDP had its worst fall on record in the second quarter. It shrank by 9.5% from the previous quarter, a 32.9% slump in annualised terms. “That is... the equivalent of the first three years... of the Great Depression accelerated into just three months”, says Tim Price of Price Value Partners.
GDP is a backward-looking indicator, but US weekly jobless claims have increased for two weeks running as the virus has forced renewed closures in southern states, says Alexandra Scaggs for Barron’s. The bond market is now sending a “warning signal” about the recovery, says Giles Coghlan on fxstreet.com. The yield on US ten-year Treasury bonds hit its lowest level since early March last week, while three- and five-year yields hit new record lows. Bond yields move inversely to prices, so falling yields imply gains for bondholders.
The bond rally is perplexing for two reasons. Firstly, governments have issued vast tranches of new debt to pay for the pandemic, which would ordinarily cause their borrowing costs (implied by bond yields) to rise, not fall.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
The US budget deficit hit $864bn in June, a figure Dan Morehead of Pantera Capital says surpasses “the total [US state] debt incurred from 1776 through the end of 1979” in nominal terms. In 2020 a country can rack up “two centuries of debt in one month”. Bondholders have central-bank purchases to thank for keeping yields low.
Secondly, the bond rally suggests that markets are sanguine about inflation, says Tommy Stubbington in the Financial Times. That’s partly because monetary stimulus after the financial crisis did not deliver the inflationary wave many predicted. Yet the recent gold rally suggests that concern about rising prices is growing. If the gold buyers are right, the bond market has got it “very wrong”.
-
Older renters £2,000 worse-off than homeowners – the risks of renting in retirementThere are financial risks to renting in your golden years, research suggests
-
Waspi women targeted in fake compensation scamThe Waspi campaign has warned of a steep rise in fraudulent websites which claim compensation is available for 1950s-born women affected by state pension age changes
-
Out of America's shadow: Why Trump's tariff chaos may be good for non-US stocksOpinion Upending global investment and trade could benefit other countries at the expense of the US market, says Cris Sholto Heaton
-
BP's 'long, painful decline' – and why next year could be even tougherOpinion Long-suffering shareholders in oil giant BP have been pushing for change. It won’t come soon enough, says Matthew Lynn
-
Investment trusts tap the profits in exotic and obscure global marketsOpinion Peter Walls, manager of the Unicorn Mastertrust fund, highlights three investment trusts as he shares where he'd put his money
-
Falling revenues and mounting debt spell trouble for Jumia TechnologiesStruggling African e-commerce platform Jumia Technologies looks headed for the exit, says Dr Matthew Partridge.
-
Next reports £1 billion in annual profits for the first time – what's next for the retailer?Clothing retailer Next has become only the fourth member of its sector to surpass £1 billion in annual profits. What does this mean for the company's future?
-
Best of British bargains: cash in on undervalued companies in the UK stock marketOpinion Michael Field, Chief Equity Market Strategist, EMEA, Morningstar, selects three attractive UK stocks where he'd put his money
-
Building firm Keller presents low debt and ample scope for growthGeotechnical contractor Keller, which supports vital global infrastructure, boasts rising profits and a cheap valuation
-
PZ Cussons share price down 75% in last decade – why it's one to watchOpinion Once-strong consumer-goods business PZ Cussons is out of favour with the market. That spells opportunity for investors, says Jamie Ward
