US election – is the Trump Trade back?

The US election is around the corner. How does Trump influence US markets?

GOP Presidential Candidate Donald Trump Holds Campaign Rally In Wilkes Barre, Pennsylvania
(Image credit: Michael M. Santiago / Staff)

US election outlook
America’s seven battleground states are all polling within a percentage point or two, ahead of the presidential election says pollster Nate Silver in The New York Times. Odds of 50-50 for Donald Trump versus Kamala Harris “is the only responsible forecast”. But if pushed, “my gut says Donald Trump”.

Traders have the same intuition. On top US betting markets, Trump has more than 60% odds of winning next week, with Harris below 40%. In financial markets, the “Trump trade” is back, says the Dealbook column in the same paper. Oil firms and cryptocurrencies – which should do well under the Republican – are rallying.

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Markets editor

Alex is an investment writer who has been contributing to MoneyWeek since 2015. He has been the magazine’s markets editor since 2019. 

Alex has a passion for demystifying the often arcane world of finance for a general readership. While financial media tends to focus compulsively on the latest trend, the best opportunities can lie forgotten elsewhere. 

He is especially interested in European equities – where his fluent French helps him to cover the continent’s largest bourse – and emerging markets, where his experience living in Beijing, and conversational Chinese, prove useful. 

Hailing from Leeds, he studied Philosophy, Politics and Economics at the University of Oxford. He also holds a Master of Public Health from the University of Manchester.