Despite being rumoured for weeks, US president Joe Biden’s decision to drop out of the presidential election “came as a shock to most political observers”, says Kaleigh Rogers for ABC News.
Technically, the Democrats now have no candidate until they formally decide at their August convention, “so nothing is set in stone until that vote happens”. Vice-president Kamala Harris is, however, already calling herself the “presumptive nominee”, having quickly garnered widespread support.
Does Kamala Harris stand a chance?
She has also been endorsed by Biden and the Democratic establishment, so Harris “does look set to become the Democratic presidential nominee”, says Matt Goodwin on Substack. That will be a “total disaster” for the Democrats. She’s a “very unpopular vice president” – polls taken before Biden’s withdrawal suggest Trump will do much better against her than Biden, especially among “wavering Republicans” who would “certainly not flock” to Harris.
MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
What’s more, she “is just not a very good campaigner or natural communicator”. In a contest between her and Trump, it looks likely that “Trump will win and most likely win easily”.
Don’t underestimate Harris, says Jacob Heilbrunn in The Spectator.
Her early years as vice president were marked by scandal and press scrutiny, but that appears to have “toughened her up” and her public-speaking skills have markedly improved. Even immigration, seen as her Achilles’ heel given her role as “border czar”, isn’t the weakness it once was thanks to “record lows in crossings over the past few months”.
Trump’s days may be numbered.
Biden stays put, for now
Biden will remain president until January and hence will continue to be “the most powerful person on Earth”, says Ed Pilkington in The Guardian. His priority is likely to be supporting Harris by ensuring continued progress on cutting immigration.
But “merely holding the country steady to the benefit of whoever replaces him” is unlikely to satisfy a “legacy-minded” president. Congress is divided, but Biden could “shape the narrative of his presidency through executive orders”. He could cut student debt, for example – “a running theme” of his presidency. He may also seek foreign-policy victories and to shore up Ukraine.
Biden is now a so-called “lame duck” president and this could decrease his leverage with foreign powers, says Felicia Schwartz in the Financial Times. Yet it “could also free him from political constraints and allow him to act with more freedom on the world stage”.
The test of this will come when Biden meets Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and seeks to “advance what could be his most significant legacy: an end to the war between Israel and Hamas”. A Biden-brokered ceasefire deal would allow Harris to avoid the issue on the campaign trail.
Biden’s decision not to run may even increase his leverage on the world stage, says Richard Haass of the Council on Foreign Relations, now that he might be “succeeded by someone who’s largely in line with him, as opposed to someone who might undo a good deal of what he stood for”.
This article was first published in MoneyWeek's magazine. Enjoy exclusive early access to news, opinion and analysis from our team of financial experts with a MoneyWeek subscription.
-
Brits overestimate price of life insurance by 184% – how much does it really cost?Cost is the biggest barrier to people financially protecting their loved ones with life insurance, with some estimating the cover is ‘too expensive’, but it can be much cheaper than often believed
-
The most resilient ski resorts in the world – where is the best place for snow retention?Luxury ski resorts are thriving, with some destinations better positioned to weather the storm of warmer winters than others. We look at the most resilient locations for snow
-
Defeat into victory: the key to Next CEO Simon Wolfson's successOpinion Next CEO Simon Wolfson claims he owes his success to a book on military strategy in World War II. What lessons does it hold, and how did he apply them to Next?
-
How to find value in Asian small cap stocksThree competing Asian investment trusts all have good records, but this one is the obvious choice at present, says Max King
-
The battle of the bond markets and public financesAn obsessive focus on short-term fiscal prudence is likely to create even greater risks in a few years, says Cris Sholto Heaton
-
'Rachel Reeves’s tax rise will crash the economy'Opinion Rachel Reeves will be the first chancellor since Denis Healey in the 1970s to raise income tax. It will only push Britain into recession, says Matthew Lynn
-
Cringe Britannia: the decline of the UK's soft powerBritain has long wielded soft power through its commitment to sound political values and the export of high and popular culture. That is now under threat
-
'We still live in Alan Greenspan’s shadow'When MoneyWeek launched 25 years ago, Alan Greenspan was chairman of the Federal Reserve. We’re still living with the consequences of the whirlwind he sowed
-
Go for growth: how to invest in emerging marketsDeveloping countries offer investors compelling long-term economic prospects, says David Prosser
-
Isaac Newton's golden legacy – how the English polymath created the gold standard by accidentIsaac Newton brought about a new global economic era by accident, says Dominic Frisby
