Could Kamala Harris be America's next president?

Despite being rumoured for weeks, US president Joe Biden’s decision to drop out of the presidential election “came as a shock to most political observers”, says Kaleigh Rogers for ABC News. 

Technically, the Democrats now have no candidate until they formally decide at their August convention, “so nothing is set in stone until that vote happens”. Vice-president Kamala Harris is, however, already calling herself the “presumptive nominee”, having quickly garnered widespread support.

Does Kamala Harris stand a chance?

She has also been endorsed by Biden and the Democratic establishment, so Harris “does look set to become the Democratic presidential nominee”, says Matt Goodwin on Substack. That will be a “total disaster” for the Democrats. She’s a “very unpopular vice president” – polls taken before Biden’s withdrawal suggest Trump will do much better against her than Biden, especially among “wavering Republicans” who would “certainly not flock” to Harris. 

MoneyWeek

Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE

Get 6 issues free

Sign up to Money Morning

Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter

Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter

Sign up

What’s more, she “is just not a very good campaigner or natural communicator”. In a contest between her and Trump, it looks likely that “Trump will win and most likely win easily”. 

Don’t underestimate Harris, says Jacob Heilbrunn in The Spectator. 

Her early years as vice president were marked by scandal and press scrutiny, but that appears to have “toughened her up” and her public-speaking skills have markedly improved. Even immigration, seen as her Achilles’ heel given her role as “border czar”, isn’t the weakness it once was thanks to “record lows in crossings over the past few months”. 

Trump’s days may be numbered.

Biden stays put, for now

Biden will remain president until January and hence will continue to be “the most powerful person on Earth”, says Ed Pilkington in The Guardian. His priority is likely to be supporting Harris by ensuring continued progress on cutting immigration. 

But “merely holding the country steady to the benefit of whoever replaces him” is unlikely to satisfy a “legacy-minded” president. Congress is divided, but Biden could “shape the narrative of his presidency through executive orders”. He could cut student debt, for example – “a running theme” of his presidency. He may also seek foreign-policy victories and to shore up Ukraine. 

Biden is now a so-called “lame duck” president and this could decrease his leverage with foreign powers, says Felicia Schwartz in the Financial Times. Yet it “could also free him from political constraints and allow him to act with more freedom on the world stage”. 

The test of this will come when Biden meets Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and seeks to “advance what could be his most significant legacy: an end to the war between Israel and Hamas”. A Biden-brokered ceasefire deal would allow Harris to avoid the issue on the campaign trail. 

Biden’s decision not to run may even increase his leverage on the world stage, says Richard Haass of the Council on Foreign Relations, now that he might be “succeeded by someone who’s largely in line with him, as opposed to someone who might undo a good deal of what he stood for”.

This article was first published in MoneyWeek's magazine. Enjoy exclusive early access to news, opinion and analysis from our team of financial experts with a MoneyWeek subscription.