UK inflation slumps to 6.7% in August
The latest data shows inflation slowed faster than expected in August, a welcome relief for consumers and the Bank of England
UK inflation dropped to 6.7% in August, according to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The better-than-expected numbers (analysts had expected inflation to rise to 7% from 6.8% in July) are likely to put less pressure on the Bank of England (BoE) to hike interest rates further from current levels.
August’s figure was driven by “falls in the often-erratic cost of overnight accommodation and air fares, as well as food prices rising by less than the same time last year.” These declining figures offset rising petrol prices, which put upward pressure on the headline inflation figures.
More importantly, core inflation, which strips volatile food and energy costs, and is a better indicator of the long-term growth of prices, fell to 6.2% in August. Economists were predicting a figure of 6.8% for August compared to the July print of 6.9%.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
UK inflation figures show light at the end of the tunnel
The latest update on inflation will come as a relief to policymakers and consumers in the UK.
As Daniel Casali, chief investment strategist at wealth management firm Evelyn Partners notes, “Back in October last year, annual headline CPI inflation had reached 11.1%, but it has since fallen by 4.4%. Much of that deceleration has come from lower energy prices in the transport (i.e. fuel) and housing and household services (i.e gas and electricity) categories.”
“Despite pockets of inflationary pressures (i.e rents), the broad deceleration trend in inflation is intact and this increases the likelihood that the BoE is close to the end of its interest rate-hiking cycle,” Casali adds.
The BoE has hiked interest rates aggressively over the past year as it has tried to bring inflation back to its 2% target. The central bank’s base rate currently stands at 5.25% and it is widely expected the bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), which sets rates, will unveil another 0.25% hike tomorrow.
But moderating inflation suggests the BoE might be close to the end of its hiking cycle. As Victoria Scholar, head of investment at interactive investor notes, “markets are now pricing in a 45% chance of no change to interest rates on Thursday, a steep increase from 20% on Tuesday. However, it looks like interest rates will remain high for some time, with little chance of a rate cut before the second half of next year.”
Nevertheless, the economy is not out of the woods just yet, “Wages are rising rapidly, sterling still remains weak and oil prices are going up,” notes Charlie Huggins at Wealth Club.
Although for now, “ the trend is in the right direction. While price rises are still much higher than anyone would like, there is no longer a sense that inflation is out of control."
Sign up to Money Morning
Our team, led by award winning editors, is dedicated to delivering you the top news, analysis, and guides to help you manage your money, grow your investments and build wealth.
Rupert is the former deputy digital editor of MoneyWeek. He's an active investor and has always been fascinated by the world of business and investing. His style has been heavily influenced by US investors Warren Buffett and Philip Carret. He is always looking for high-quality growth opportunities trading at a reasonable price, preferring cash generative businesses with strong balance sheets over blue-sky growth stocks.
Rupert has written for many UK and international publications including the Motley Fool, Gurufocus and ValueWalk, aimed at a range of readers; from the first timers to experienced high-net-worth individuals. Rupert has also founded and managed several businesses, including the New York-based hedge fund newsletter, Hidden Value Stocks. He has written over 20 ebooks and appeared as an expert commentator on the BBC World Service.
-
5 steps to shield your money from the taxman before the Budget
Experts have warned Labour is planning a tax raid in its upcoming Budget. We share five steps to shield your money from the taxman
By Katie Williams Published
-
The trading apps that let you put fractional shares in an ISA
Advice HMRC is set to change ISA rules to allow fractional shares to be included in the tax wrapper. Here are the trading platforms and trading apps that support this.
By Marc Shoffman Published
-
The Bank of England can’t afford to hike interest rates again
With inflation falling, the cost of borrowing rising and the economy heading into an election year, the Bank of England can’t afford to increase interest rates again.
By Rupert Hargreaves Published
-
Interest rates held at 5.25% again
The Bank of England has kept rates at 5.25% again, in a widely anticipated move. We look at what it means for your money - and what the Bank’s next move could be
By Ruth Emery Last updated
-
Bank of England holds interest rates at 5.25%
The Bank has kept rates at 5.25%, ending its run of 14 consecutive increases. We look at what it means for your money - and what the Bank’s next move could be
By Ruth Emery Published