Is the UK heading for negative interest rates?
The hints that negative interest rates are heading for Britain are now coming thick and fast.
The Bank of England’s governor, Andrew Bailey, has spoken of negative interest rates as being “in the tool bag”. Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Silvana Tenreyro says that the evidence for negative interest rates is “encouraging”. Yet Dave Ramsden, another MPC member, this week cast doubt on the idea that rates could fall below 0.1% without the policy backfiring.
Negative rates are supposed to stimulate bank lending by charging banks fees for any cash they leave stashed in their accounts at the Bank of England, says Ruth Sunderland in the Daily Mail. It remains an open question whether the banks would dare pass along negative rates to their own customers. Sweden’s central bank was the first country to experiment with a negative interest rate in 2009 when it began to charge banks interest on overnight deposits. Its headline interest rate went negative in 2015. The European Central Bank cut its deposit rate to -0.1% in 2014, followed by Switzerland the following year. The Bank of Japan cut its key rate to -0.1% in 2016. Negative rates have an underwhelming record as a stimulus measure. They have done little to remedy chronically weak inflation in the eurozone and Japan, says Brian Blackstone in The Wall Street Journal. They seem to have little effect on the amount that people choose to save and spend. Negative rates have also meant a miserable decade for European bank profitability.
There is evidence that negative rates reduce lending costs, but diminishing returns set in quickly. The debatable rewards of the policy should be set against the significant downside risks: inflated asset bubbles and damage to banks and pension funds, says James Mackintosh in The Wall Street Journal. Note that Sweden last year ended its negative interest-rate policy.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Sign up to Money Morning
Our team, led by award winning editors, is dedicated to delivering you the top news, analysis, and guides to help you manage your money, grow your investments and build wealth.
Alex Rankine is Moneyweek's markets editor
-
Do you qualify for the Winter Fuel Payment if you live abroad?
The Winter Fuel Payment will be means tested for expats living in Europe, in line with the new rules impacting those in the UK. But a quirk in the system means not all countries are eligible.
By Katie Williams Published
-
What the Employment Rights Bill means for your job
New workplace reforms are set to give employees new rights to benefits and flexible working
By Marc Shoffman Published
-
How much does the prime minister get paid?
How much does the prime minister get paid and should he get more?
By Simon Wilson Published
-
Why Labour sleaze matters
Labour has come under the spotlight for accepting over £800,000 in gifts. Is this just crony politics as usual?
By Matthew Lynn Published
-
How to improve economic output using the supply-side approach
Boosting potential economic output through public investment is crucial, says David C. Stevenson
By David C. Stevenson Published
-
Anders Holch Povlsen: the Danish tycoon reshaping Britain
Anders Holch Povlsen has snapped up land in the Highlands, returning it to a wilderness, and plans to transform a historic department store in Edinburgh. Can he also revive Topshop?
By Jane Lewis Published
-
What can small businesses expect from Labour's employment law reforms?
Small businesses could be impacted by Labour’s reforms to employment law which will be unveiled next month – here's how to prepare.
By David Prosser Published
-
Will Topshop return to the UK high street?
Despite Asos selling a £135 million stake in Topshop, is there a chance for the retailer to make a comeback on the high street?
By Matthew Lynn Published
-
Mexico passes controversial judicial reform – will it hurt investors?
What will Mexico's new reform mean for investors and the country's economy?
By Alex Rankine Published
-
London Stock Exchange exodus: which companies could be next to go?
As many companies exit London, the steady trickle of stocks listing elsewhere could turn into a stampede. Who will be next, and what does this mean for investors?
By Max King Published