UK inflation live: Inflation remained at 3% in February

Good afternoon and welcome to our live coverage ahead of the latest UK inflation data being published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) tomorrow (25 March).

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) measure of inflation data will be released at 7am, covering the 12 months to February 2026.

In the 12 months to January, CPI inflation read 3%, down from 3.4% in December, marking the slowest annual rate of CPI inflation since March 2025.

Inflation for February is expected to come in around the 3% mark, according to economists.

Follow our live report here as we bring you rolling preview analysis ahead of the data being published, plus live reaction after it is released.

Economists expect inflation to have risen at same pace as January

Economists at research and consulting firm Pantheon Macroeconomics expect the February data to show inflation rising at 3% in the year to February, unchanged from January.

The firm is forecasting higher core goods inflation will offset lower motor fuel costs, with core CPI inflation set to remain unchanged year-on-year at 3.1%.

Meanwhile, it is forecasting services inflation to come in at 4.1%, down from 4.4% in January.

UK inflation since 2020

The CPI measure of inflation has broadly trended downwards since peaking at 11.1% in October 2022 following a surge in wholesale energy prices.

Global prices for gas, electricity and oil started to increase in the summer of 2021 when economies around the world opened up following coronavirus lockdowns. This increase was exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

In September 2024, the CPI measure of inflation slowed to 1.7% before increasing to 3.8% in July 2025, but since then has slowed to 3% in January 2026.

Why does the ONS release inflation figures at 7am?

The ONS previously released key macroeconomic data at 9.30am and briefed some news agencies on the details beforehand.

However, it trialled a 7am release time during the coronavirus pandemic, a move it made permanent in March 2022.

The statistics body said it had decided to change the time indefinitely as it “increases the visibility and timely explanation of our statistics via the media” and made it more widely accessible to the public.

'The bigger concern is what happens next'

While the headline CPI inflation figure published by the ONS tomorrow is expected to remain roughly stable, a shock could be on the way due to the conflict in the Middle East.

The price of Brent crude oil has surged since the US and Israel first launched strikes on Iran on 28 February, disrupting shipping and leaving energy infrastructure damaged. A barrel of crude oil has gone from $72 on 28 February to $95 on 23 March.

Rising oil prices push up the price of petrol, transport costs and then consequently the cost of the weekly food shop.

Tamsin Powell, consumer finance expert at personal loan lender Creditspring, said: “The bigger concern is what happens next, as rising fuel and wholesale energy costs are already pointing to renewed pressure in the months ahead.

“Even if February’s CPI figure looks calm on paper, it may not reflect the pressures already building in everyday spending,” Powell added.

What do you think inflation will be in February?

Why rising inflation doesn’t always mean prices are going up for you

The ONS’ official measure for tracking inflation is the CPI, but even if it’s rising that doesn’t mean your cost of living has gone up.

The CPI measure tracks price rises across a virtual basket of roughly 750 goods and services, which changes once per year to keep up with market trends.

But that means the headline figure change might not reflect how much more you’re spending on a day-to-day basis.

For example, a teenager might be more impacted by price rises in video games than a pensioner.

We're going to end our coverage here for today, but keep an eye on this page where we'll bring you live reaction and analysis when the ONS releases its latest inflation data tomorrow.

Good morning and welcome back to our live coverage. The ONS is just about to release its latest inflation data, so stay with us for rolling reaction and analysis.

BREAKING - UK INFLATION REMAINED AT 3% IN FEBRUARY

Data from ONS today unsurprising

The data released by the ONS this morning is what was expected from economists.

The annual rate of CPI inflation has stayed the same as January, but it doesn’t reveal much about where prices, which are likely to be impacted by the war in the Middle East, might go in the future.

Rising clothing prices offset by slowing petrol costs

The ONS said rising clothing and footwear prices saw the headline CPI figure rise in the 12 months to February, but falling petrol prices offset the increase.

Prices also rose across furniture and household goods, but slowed across food and non-alcoholic drinks.

Grant Fitzner, chief economist at the ONS, said prices for petrol costs were collected before the conflict in the Middle East broke out, meaning they are likely to rise over the coming months.

Core CPI rises while services inflation falls

Core CPI, which strips out prices for more volatile items like food and energy, rose by 3.2% in the 12 months to February, up from 3.1% in January.

Meanwhile, the CPI services annual rate eased from 4.4% to 4.3%.

The Consumer Price Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH), which includes council tax costs and is considered the most comprehensive measure of inflation, rose by 3.2% in February, unchanged from the 12 months to January.

February inflation figures a ‘false flag’ for the economy

While the February inflation figures released today might seem positive, they’re still over the Bank of England’s 2% target, which is set by the government.

Meanwhile, they measure price rises which happened before the conflict in the Middle East, which economists expect will have a significant inflationary impact over the coming months.

Sirun Thiru, chief economist at the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW), branded the February inflation figures a “false flag”.

Thiru added: “While inflation should fall next month (March) as the cut to green levies temporarily lowers energy bills, a brutal inflation surge looms with skyrocketing oil and gas costs likely to lift the headline rate above 4% by the summer.”

What does the latest data mean for interest rates?

Today's inflation data is unlikely to have much impact on interest rates in the near or long term.

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) had been intending to lower interest rates in 2026 with inflation slowing, unemployment rising and the economy stagnating.

At the start of the year, the central bank was expected to lower rates twice in 2026, with the first coming in March.

But the conflict in the Middle East and its potential inflationary impact has, at least for now, given the MPC more pause for concern.

At its last meeting, ratesetters voted unanimously to hold interest rates at 3.75% rather than lowering them.

Andrew Bailey, the governor of the Bank of England, said holding interest rates was the “appropriate” thing to do with the threat of higher inflation looming and the knock-on effect this could have on consumers.

In the longer term, interest rates could remain at their current rates until well into 2027, according to advisory firm Oxford Economics, which has voiced concerns over elevated global oil and gas prices.

Inflation figures include supermarket scanner data for first time

This month’s set of inflation data is the first which includes prices tracked through supermarket scanners.

The ONS typically tracks prices by manually checking them in stores and shops, but now around 50% of the grocery market data is being tracked through scanners and online tills.

The ONS says the move will allow it to more accurately measure year-on-year price changes and find out how much of a particular item shoppers are buying.

A closer look at the figures

How inflation affects you depends on what goods and services you buy, so it helps to look at the data in a more granular way.

Here’s a breakdown of exactly how much prices rose across some of the main categories in the year to February.

A quick recap

If you’re just joining us, here’s a quick recap of what you’ve missed.

The CPI measure of inflation remained at 3% in the year to February, the ONS confirmed this morning, in line with economists’ expectations.

The CPIH measure of inflation also stayed the same as the month before, remaining at 3.2% in the year to February.

But experts are warning the data pre-dates the war in the Middle East, which is expected to put major upward pressure on inflation.

Savers should be ‘hunting down’ the best rates

Higher inflation can keep savings rates elevated, but it’s crucial your money is an account that’s paying out a rate above inflation.

The average savings rate on the market is currently paying 3.37% in interest, according to data website Moneyfactscompare, but if inflation rose to 4%, you would be losing money in real terms.

Caitlyn Eastell, personal finance analyst at Moneyfactscompare, said: “Settling for average won’t cut it, savers should be hunting down the most competitive rates. The top easy access account currently pays 4.71%, which puts savers ahead.”

Economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics believe inflation will peak at 3.6% in November 2026, but what do you think?

How does the UK’s rate of CPI inflation compare to other countries?

CPI data is the measure used to compare the UK's rate of inflation against other major countries.

According to the ONS, the UK’s rate of inflation was higher than the EU (2.1%), Germany (2%) and France (1.1%) in February.

The last time the UK rate was lower than the EU’s was December 2024.

When will March's inflation data be published?

The ONS publishes inflation data once per month.

It will be releasing the data for the month of March on 22 April.

That concludes our inflation coverage for today. Thank you for joining us. We will be back with more live analysis in the weeks to come.