UK inflation: Summary
- The Office for National Statistics (ONS) will release the latest UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) measure of inflation data tomorrow (25 March).
- CPI inflation in the 12 months to January 2026 read 3%, after slowing from 3.4% in December 2025.
- Economists expect the February inflation data to remain unchanged at around 3%.
- The data will be released as fears grow that inflation will surge in the coming months due to the conflict in Iran.
- The Bank of England (BoE) held interest rates at 3.75% at its last meeting in response to the growing threat of rising prices.
- UK inflation forecast | Interest rate predictions | Next Bank of England base rate meeting | New ONS basket of goods
'The bigger concern is what happens next'
While the headline CPI inflation figure published by the ONS tomorrow is expected to remain roughly stable, a shock could be on the way due to the conflict in the Middle East.
The price of Brent crude oil has surged since the US and Israel first launched strikes on Iran on 28 February, disrupting shipping and leaving energy infrastructure damaged. A barrel of crude oil has gone from $72 on 28 February to $95 on 23 March.
Rising oil prices push up the price of petrol, transport costs and then consequently the cost of the weekly food shop.
Tamsin Powell, consumer finance expert at personal loan lender Creditspring, said: “The bigger concern is what happens next, as rising fuel and wholesale energy costs are already pointing to renewed pressure in the months ahead.
“Even if February’s CPI figure looks calm on paper, it may not reflect the pressures already building in everyday spending,” Powell added.
Why does the ONS release inflation figures at 7am?
The ONS previously released key macroeconomic data at 9.30am and briefed some news agencies on the details beforehand.
However, it trialled a 7am release time during the coronavirus pandemic, a move it made permanent in March 2022.
The statistics body said it had decided to change the time indefinitely as it “increases the visibility and timely explanation of our statistics via the media” and made it more widely accessible to the public.
UK inflation since 2020
The CPI measure of inflation has broadly trended downwards since peaking at 11.1% in October 2022 following a surge in wholesale energy prices.
Global prices for gas, electricity and oil started to increase in the summer of 2021 when economies around the world opened up following coronavirus lockdowns. This increase was exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
In September 2024, the CPI measure of inflation slowed to 1.7% before increasing to 3.8% in July 2025, but since then has slowed to 3% in January 2026.
Economists expect inflation to have risen at same pace as January
Economists at research and consulting firm Pantheon Macroeconomics expect the February data to show inflation rising at 3% in the year to February, unchanged from January.
The firm is forecasting higher core goods inflation will offset lower motor fuel costs, with core CPI inflation set to remain unchanged year-on-year at 3.1%.
Meanwhile, it is forecasting services inflation to come in at 4.1%, down from 4.4% in January.
Good afternoon and welcome to our live coverage ahead of the latest UK inflation data being published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) tomorrow (25 March).
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) measure of inflation data will be released at 7am, covering the 12 months to February 2026.
In the 12 months to January, CPI inflation read 3%, down from 3.4% in December, marking the slowest annual rate of CPI inflation since March 2025.
Inflation for February is expected to come in around the 3% mark, according to economists.
Follow our live report here as we bring you rolling preview analysis ahead of the data being published, plus live reaction after it is released.