There were “gasps of horror” and tears from Marine Le Pen’s supporters following an “unexpected left-wing victory” in the second round of France’s parliamentary elections, which thwarted her efforts “to bring the far-right to power”, says the Financial Times.
The result represents a “resounding success” for the co-ordinated strategy against the National Rally (RN), which saw centrist and left-wing candidates withdrawing in order to encourage tactical voting against Le Pen’s party.
It was pushed into third place with 143 seats, while president Emmanuel Macron’s Ensemble coalition got 159 and the left-wing NFP topped the polls with 180 seats. Still, this gives the RN significantly more than the 88 MPs it had previously, and leaves France in “limbo”, and no one party with an overall majority.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
What does the French election mean for France's stability?
The hung parliament, with three powerful blocs, constitutes “uncharted waters” for France, says Charles Bremner in The Times. There is precedent for “cohabitation” between a left-wing PM and a more conservative president, but the NFP bloc is so divided it can’t agree on a leader. Macron considers Jean-Luc Mélenchon and his France Unbowed, the largest party in the NFP, as “every bit as dangerous” as Le Pen’s RN.
This leaves Macron scrambling to attempt to “forge a working coalition between his centrists and moderate left-wingers”, which means that “long negotiations of a kind not seen in France for decades” are expected. There is “no clear or immediate path” to a stable government, so any coalition that does emerge is likely to be solely “designed to keep the machinery of government running rather than to enact big reforms”, says The Economist.
Such an arrangement would at least “bring stability”, something that would be welcomed by the markets. However, it might also lead to a backlash that boosts the extreme left and right – “French voters are already distrustful of Macron’s outgoing technocrat-heavy team”.
The impact on Europe
France’s expected post-election “paralysis” is also likely to temper any relief felt in Brussels at the results, say Barbara Moens and Jacopo Barigazzi for Politico. Eurocrats will be “delighted” at the relatively poor performance of Le Pen, but they will be worried by the anti-EU rhetoric coming from both the French left and the right. They will also be concerned that an inability to carry out further fiscal reforms will lead to economic “stagnation” and a worsening financial situation, resulting eventually in a confrontation between Paris and Brussels over the French deficit.
Macron’s authority and influence has been “greatly diminished”, which is bad news for those who support his belief that Europe, in an “overheating” world, needs to show “more unity, more coherence, more power”, says Timothy Garton Ash in The Guardian. It is also unfortunate for Ukraine, given that Macron was “the most influential west European voice in favour of increased support” for the “embattled” country, whose fate still hangs in the balance. Macron has “stabbed both himself and Europe in the back”.
This article was first published in MoneyWeek's magazine. Enjoy exclusive early access to news, opinion and analysis from our team of financial experts with a MoneyWeek subscription.
-
Dividend heroes: the investment trusts that have increased their dividends for 20+ yearsInvestment trusts can be a good option for income-focused investors – but which trusts have consistently increased their dividends over the past 20 years?
-
Six reasons not to top up your state pensionA deadline to buy National Insurance credits and top up your state pension is fast approaching. Here’s why it may not be worth it for some people
-
Europe prepares to stand alone as Trump turns on UkraineSupport for old military alliances is wavering in the US under Donald Trump. Europe’s leaders are rushing to fill the void. Simon Wilson reports
-
Volodymyr Zelenskyy moves to appease Donald Trump – what happens now?Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy is conceding ground to secure the least-worst deal possible, says Emily Hohler
-
Kirill Dmitriev: from Wall Street banker to Putin’s emissary to TrumpworldProfile Kirill Dmitriev is a product of America’s finest institutions and has emerged as the Russian president’s point man in negotiations with Donald Trump
-
It’s time to start buying Europe again, says Merryn Somerset WebbOpinion Europe's stocks are cheap and the economic backdrop is starting to look cheerier, says Merryn Somerset Webb
-
Key takeaways from the 2025 German election resultsFriedrich Merz heralds a new era for Germany, after the German elections revealed a majority of young voters are leaning towards the far-right
-
Is Rachel Reeves leading the UK to a spring crisis?Opinion Rachel Reeves is sleepwalking into an economic catastrophe of her own making. Don’t expect a change of direction, says Matthew Lynn
-
Will Labour rethink the Chagos Islands deal with Mauritius?Labour hailed its agreement to hand control of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius as a diplomatic coup. The reality is more woeful, says Simon Wilson
-
No need to run from the robots: Nobel laureate Daron Acemoglu talks to MoneyWeekInterview Daron Acemoglu, Nobel Prize winner and professor at MIT tells Matthew Partridge why the gains from AI have been overhyped
