The far-right AfD win big in German elections. So what now?
The far-right AfD celebrate a troubling win in Germany. Should politicians treat this warning seriously?


The far-right, populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is celebrating a “historic success” in local elections in the east of the country, says the BBC. The party topped the polls in the state of Thuringia, with almost a third of the vote – nine points ahead of the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU). It also came a close second to the CDU in Saxony. This gives the far right its first victory in a state election since World War II.
The AfD’s rise is “more troubling” than those of equivalents in France or Italy, says the Financial Times. While most hard-right parties in Europe have tried to moderate or at least downplay their most unsavoury elements, AfD members “openly espouse ethno-nationalist and xenophobic views”. The AfD leader in Thuringia, Björn Höcke, has previously been convicted of using banned Nazi slogans.
"That nearly a third of voters in Thuringia and Saxony voted for it is deeply unsettling."
MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE

Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
To make matters worse, another 10%-15% voted for “the populist hard-left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), whose anti-immigrant and pro-Russia stances chime with the AfD’s”.
Can the AfD last?
Other parties refuse to cooperate with the AfD, so the far-right won’t end up in power, and state governments don’t have any direct input on foreign policy anyway, says The Economist. However, the “large chunk” of seats the AfD now occupies will force the other parties into “ideologically garbled coalitions”. These are likely to include the BSW, producing state governments that are “precision-engineered for chaos”.
Already, Sahra Wagenknecht, the BSW’s founder, is demanding that any coalitions that her party takes part in are committed to rejecting chancellor Olaf Scholz’s recent agreement to station long-range American missiles in Germany from 2026.
What does this mean for German elections?
These elections are an “emphatic slap around the chops” of the German political establishment, says Oliver Moody in The Times. The current coalition is deeply unpopular, while the established opposition has failed “to squeeze out the hard right”.
The fact that nearly half the voters in Thuringia and more than 40% in Saxony “have turned their backs on the established parties” suggests that “a large share of the electorate clearly feel that the political system no longer works for them”.
These elections have been an "emphatic slap around the chops"
Oliver Moody, The Times
While Germany “is not in any sense heading back to the early Thirties”, politicians of the mainstream parties urgently need to “treat this warning with the seriousness it deserves”.
At the very least, the mainstream German parties must stop telling voters, especially those in eastern states, that “their concerns aren’t real”, says Katja Hoyer in The Guardian. Particularly important issues include immigration, energy prices and the economy, as well as more generally “a deeper fear for the economic and political future of the country”. While such topics may be “uncomfortable” for centrists to discuss, ignoring them, or attempting to shut down discussion, effectively gives the AfD “a monopoly over those issues”. What’s more, it should be possible to have a “constructive debate” without “plunging into populism”.
This article was first published in MoneyWeek's magazine. Enjoy exclusive early access to news, opinion and analysis from our team of financial experts with a MoneyWeek subscription.
Get the latest financial news, insights and expert analysis from our award-winning MoneyWeek team, to help you understand what really matters when it comes to your finances.

Matthew graduated from the University of Durham in 2004; he then gained an MSc, followed by a PhD at the London School of Economics.
He has previously written for a wide range of publications, including the Guardian and the Economist, and also helped to run a newsletter on terrorism. He has spent time at Lehman Brothers, Citigroup and the consultancy Lombard Street Research.
Matthew is the author of Superinvestors: Lessons from the greatest investors in history, published by Harriman House, which has been translated into several languages. His second book, Investing Explained: The Accessible Guide to Building an Investment Portfolio, is published by Kogan Page.
As senior writer, he writes the shares and politics & economics pages, as well as weekly Blowing It and Great Frauds in History columns He also writes a fortnightly reviews page and trading tips, as well as regular cover stories and multi-page investment focus features.
Follow Matthew on Twitter: @DrMatthewPartri
-
Why wealthy whisky enthusiasts are leaving Britain
Collectables Wealthy whisky enthusiasts are heading to tax-friendly countries such as Dubai, where there is more disposable income to spend on collectable luxuries like rare whisky.
-
Zoopla: Property tax speculation creates uncertainty for a third of home buyers
Property tax rumours could impact homes valued at over £500,000, potentially triggering a housing market slowdown, Zoopla has warned
-
The financial crisis in UK universities – what can be done?
UK universities are running out of cash and have begun to shed staff; bankruptcies look likely. What’s gone wrong, and what should be done about it?
-
'Governments are launching an assault on the independence of central banks'
Opinion Say goodbye to the era of central bank orthodoxy and hello to the new era of central bank dependency, says Jeremy McKeown
-
Why investors can no longer trust traditional statistical indicators
Opinion The statistical indicators and data investors have relied on for decades are no longer fit for purpose. It's time to move on, says Helen Thomas
-
The most likely outcome of the AI boom is a big fall
Opinion Like the dotcom boom of the late 1990s, AI is not paying off – despite huge investments being made in the hope of creating AI-based wealth
-
The rise of Robin Zeng: China’s billionaire battery king
Robin Zeng, a pioneer in EV batteries, is vying with Li Ka-shing for the title of Hong Kong’s richest person. He is typical of a new kind of tycoon in China
-
How retail investors can gain exposure to Lloyd’s of London
It’s hard for retail investors to get in on the action at Lloyd’s of London. Here are some of the ways to gain exposure
-
The goal of business is not profit, but virtue
Opinion Serve your customers well, and the profits will follow, according to a new book. It rarely works the other way around, says Stuart Watkins
-
Earnings estimates are a rigged game – especially in the US
The number of US stocks beating earnings estimates tells us only that guidance has deliberately been set too low