There is one very odd fact about commercial aviation. Although it has grown hugely, and we all fly far more frequently than ever before, it has hardly advanced technologically for 60 years. Sure, the aeroplanes are a little safer, slightly quieter, and they use less fuel, but those are all minor modifications. In the one respect that matters to passengers – how quickly you can get to your destination – it has gone backwards. You can no longer fly faster than the speed of sound, as you could when Concorde was still operational.
That might be about to change. We are on the cusp of a new era of aeroplane travel, with a whole series of technological advances making it possible that a commercial supersonic jet might be back on the market soon.
The trouble is, China may get there first. Its hyper-aggressive aeroplane maker Comac has unveiled plans for a supersonic passenger jet, the C949. It has already launched the C919, a competitor to the Boeing 737 and the Airbus A320 family, and it has plans for a C929 competing with the Boeing 787 and the A330. It’s now started work on the C949, a supersonic aircraft that it claims will be able to travel at 1.6 Mach.
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It would be easy to dismiss that as marketing hype. But consider China’s advance in EVs, smartphones and AI. Its commercial science and engineering is far more advanced than most people have yet realised. It’s perfectly capable of making a quality jet that can travel that fast, and do so safely. It may well do so before any of the major Western aerospace firms.
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Yet the West can’t afford to lose this race. A cheap, reliable and quiet supersonic aeroplane could easily turn into a “killer app” to knock out Boeing and Airbus. After all, if they were offered the choice, and so long as there was not much difference in price, who wouldn’t want to get from London to New York in three hours instead of six, or from Paris to Shanghai in six hours instead of 12? Travel within most of the US, Europe and Asia would involve a connection of an hour or less; even Australia would be no more than a 12-hour, non-stop flight from anywhere. It would transform the industry.
The West must accelerate innovation in commercial aviation
If China gets there first, it will create a huge new hi-tech manufacturing industry. It will generate lots of jobs, just as it does in North America and Europe, a network of well-paid suppliers, and plenty of spinoff start-ups. With a jet that’s faster than sound, China could leapfrog both its main rivals in a little more than a few years. Just as significantly, it could lock the world into a critical infrastructure controlled by Beijing.
Both the US and Europe should be spending a lot less time bashing China with tariffs and more time working out how to maintain European and US leadership in core industries. If China is close to developing a commercially viable supersonic passenger jet, then perhaps there should be a Boeing-Airbus joint venture to get their own aeroplane onto the market at the same time, or preferably before the Comac version takes to the skies; or a government-funded collaboration on the core technology, which could then be licensed to both companies to build their own jets; or an entirely new firm to build a new generation of aeroplanes.
There are a range of approaches that could work. But the West can’t afford to lose this race. Commercial aviation is one of the few industries left where the US and Europe are clearly dominant. Travel that’s faster than speed could easily turn the entire industry upside down. Right now, the West is doing nothing to stop that from happening.
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