Frisby’s forecasts – the year-end autopsy: how did he do?
Dominic Frisby looks back on the ten market forecasts he made at the start of the year and looks at what he got right, and what he got wrong.
At the beginning of each year, I get out my crystal ball and make ten predictions about the year ahead.
I try to make those predictions as specific as possible, in order to give myself as much scope as possible to be wrong.
Then at the end of the year I go back and mark those predictions and that's what I am doing today.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Going back and marking yourself is quite a valuable exercise, if only to remind yourself how quickly the investment landscape and the mood around it can change.
I made ten predictions about 2019 how well did I do?
No direct hits but no epic fails either
A reminder of the points scoring system: two points for a direct hit (very rare); one point for sort-of-vaguely-right; zero points for a miss; and -1 for an epic fail.
1. Gold: 0
Right, first up: gold. I wasn't bullish enough and this one gets me zero points straight off the bat. "Lows in the $1,220 zone, highs in the $1,360-$1,390 zone, with an outside chance we head above $1,450" was my prediction.
The low for the year was $1,270 and boy did we go above $1,450 over $100 above. Not an epic fail, but zero points all the same.
2. Oil: 1
Brent Crude was at $52 a barrel at the beginning of the year. I said it would go to $70 and it did. $74 in fact. But $52 was the low, when I thought it would touch $45. Just the one point.
3. Sterling: 1
Frisby's outlook for sterling was: "A weak first half of the year, but it all starts to come together in the second half." That's pretty much what we got. August was the turning point. I predicted lows of $1.22 and highs of $1.38. The low was actually $1.20 and the high $1.35. Not far off but, again, just the one point.
4. Bitcoin: 1
I am giving myself one point for my next prediction on bitcoin which was that "2019 is the year in which bitcoin makes its bear-market low." That low seems to have come in at around $3,000 (I thought it would be lower). We are currently at $6,500, and in a downtrend. We may be on course to retest that low early next year, who knows? But for now, one point.
5. Helium: 1
Every year some niche commodity becomes the hot investment and this year I suggested it would be helium. There's a huge shortage of it. Helium prices are indeed up about 135%, but the plethora of helium-focused small-caps that I was hoping for never really materialised. One point.
6. Japanese yen: 1
I thought the yen would have a good year, hitting something like parity with the US dollar ie 100 (or $0.01 to 1). The yen had an okay year and a particularly good run from May through to August, when it reached 104 but it never got to parity. 1 point.
7. S&P 500: 0
Zero points for my prediction on the S&P 500. Though I said we'd end the year higher, I didn't think we would break out to new highs and we did.
I've been such a permabull on the S&P in my Money Mornings that I'm tempted to give myself a point. I can't believe I was so muted at the turn of the year, but there you go: I was. Moods change.
8. House prices: 2
Two points however for my prediction on the UK housing market, which was for more stagnation, particularly at the top end (thanks, largely, to high stamp duty). There would be more activity lower down, and indeed there was.
9. Brexit: 2
Two points also for my prediction on Brexit that "this one will run and run". We wouldn't leave on 29 March. Article 50 will get delayed. And how it was. Twice. We never left. Brexit is still running!
10. The footie: 2
And finally my Brucey-bonus sports prediction was that Manchester City not Liverpool (who were top at the time) would win the league, with Huddersfield, Fulham and Cardiff all going down. My only real bullseye and the most useless bullseye of the lot. Two points.
All in all 11 points. Not a great showing, really, as most of my points were accumulated where I didn't make specific price predictions. Price predictions can be a lottery but I like to get at least one right.
On the other hand, no epic fails. I usually get a couple of them as well. So what can I say? As far as my predictions are concerned, a year of mediocrity.
I've really enjoyed writing on these pages this year, and I'm looking forward to next. In the meantime, I hope you have a terrific Christmas, and make an absolute pot of money in 2020.
Daylight Robbery How Tax Shaped The Past And Will Change The Future is available at Amazon and all good bookstores with the audiobook, read by Dominic, on Audible and elsewhere. If you want a signed copy, you can order one here.
Sign up to Money Morning
Our team, led by award winning editors, is dedicated to delivering you the top news, analysis, and guides to help you manage your money, grow your investments and build wealth.
Dominic Frisby (“mercurially witty” – the Spectator) is as far as we know the world’s only financial writer and comedian. He is the author of the popular newsletter the Flying Frisby and is MoneyWeek’s main commentator on gold, commodities, currencies and cryptocurrencies. He has also taken several of his shows to the Edinburgh Festival Fringe.
His books are Daylight Robbery - How Tax Changed our Past and Will Shape our Future; Bitcoin: the Future of Money? and Life After the State - Why We Don't Need Government.
Dominic was educated at St Paul's School, Manchester University and the Webber-Douglas Academy Of Dramatic Art. You can follow him on X @dominicfrisby
-
Banks given additional 72 hours to investigate suspicious payments
New rules will allow banks to pause suspicious payments for longer, giving them time to investigate cases of potential fraud
By Katie Williams Published
-
What financial support can you get if you are suffering with long-term illness?
Health is wealth and more important than any material riches. But too often, long-term illness brings financial worries of its own. What financial support can you get if you are ill?
By Katie Williams Published
-
As global powers fight it out, commodity prices are set to rocket
Analysis Commodity prices have been held down by globalisation. This trend is now rapidly reversing.
By Dominic Frisby Last updated
-
Is gold cheap relative to equities?
Analysis Dominic Frisby looks at the Dow-gold ratio and explains why gold is starting to appear inexpensive compared to equities.
By Dominic Frisby Published
-
Are UK house prices set to fall? It’s not so simple
Analysis Figures suggest UK house prices are starting to slide, but we shouldn’t take these numbers at face value, explains Rupert Hargreaves.
By Rupert Hargreaves Last updated
-
Are we heading for a commercial property crash?
Analysis The pandemic has reduced the demand for office spaces and permanently changed the office environment. But John Stepek says rising interest rates are a bigger threat to commercial property right now.
By John Stepek Published
-
Tesco looks well-placed to ride out the cost of living crisis – investors take note
Analysis Surging inflation is bad news for retailers. But supermarket giant Tesco looks better placed to cope than most, says Rupert Hargreaves.
By Rupert Hargreaves Published
-
It may not look like it, but the UK housing market is cooling off
Analysis Recent house price statistics show UK house prices rising. But John Stepek explains why the market is in fact slowing down and what this means for you.
By John Stepek Last updated
-
Think the oil price is high now? You ain’t seen nothing yet
Analysis The oil price has been on a tear in recent months. Dominic Frisby explains why oil in fact is still very cheap relative to other assets.
By Dominic Frisby Published
-
What can markets tell us about the economy and geopolitics?
Sponsored Markets have remained resilient despite Russia's war with Ukraine. Max King rounds up how reliable the stockmarket is in predicting economic outlooks.
By Max King Published