Betting on politics: latest odds on the Tory leadership

published 8 July 2019

Britain's Home Secretary Sajid Javid © TOLGA AKMEN/AFP/Getty Images

Despite the various controversies surrounding Boris Johnson, his status as the presumptive leader of the Conservative party seems undimmed.

With a total of £12.7m wagered on Betfair alone, his odds have tightened to 1.14 (87.7%) while those of Jeremy Hunt have drifted out to 8.6 (11.6%).

Interestingly, given that betting exchanges are generally more generous than the bookies, the best odds you can get on Boris anywhere come from Ladbrokes, which is offering 1/6 (85.7%) on him being the next prime minister.

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Ladbrokes are also offering odds on the next Chancellor. Sajid Javid (pictured) is the favourite, with odds of 4/5 (55.5%). Tied for second place are Liz Truss and Matt Hancock, who are each on 4/1 (20%). Jacob Rees-Mogg and Andrea Leadsom are also in contention at 8/1 (11.1%) and 16/1 (5.9%) respectively. Since I made lots of recommendations a year ago, at markedly different odds, I won't offer any more suggestions.

Ladbrokes is also offering bets on the outcome of Jeremy Corbyn's constituency of Islington North and Johnson's seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip at the next general election.

While I prefer not to make bets where the odds are very short, I think the 1/10 (90.9%) on Labour to win Islington North is worth taking because Corbyn's majority was 33,215 at the last election. Indeed, the last time Labour got less than 50% of the vote in that constituency was in 1983.

Matthew graduated from the University of Durham in 2004; he then gained an MSc, followed by a PhD at the London School of Economics.

He has previously written for a wide range of publications, including the Guardian and the Economist, and also helped to run a newsletter on terrorism. He has spent time at Lehman Brothers, Citigroup and the consultancy Lombard Street Research.

Matthew is the author of Superinvestors: Lessons from the greatest investors in history, published by Harriman House, which has been translated into several languages. His second book, Investing Explained: The Accessible Guide to Building an Investment Portfolio, is published by Kogan Page.

As senior writer, he writes the shares and politics & economics pages, as well as weekly Blowing It and Great Frauds in History columns He also writes a fortnightly reviews page and trading tips, as well as regular cover stories and multi-page investment focus features.

Follow Matthew on Twitter: @DrMatthewPartri