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Betting on politics: latest odds on the Tory leadership

Matthew Partridge looks at the latest odds on the tory leadership race, on the next chancellor, and on Corbyn and Johnson losing their seats at the next election.

Britain's Home Secretary Sajid Javid © TOLGA AKMEN/AFP/Getty Images

Britain's Home Secretary Sajid Javid © TOLGA AKMEN/AFP/Getty Images

Despite the various controversies surrounding Boris Johnson, his status as the presumptive leader of the Conservative party seems undimmed.

With a total of £12.7m wagered on Betfair alone, his odds have tightened to 1.14 (87.7%) while those of Jeremy Hunt have drifted out to 8.6 (11.6%).

Interestingly, given that betting exchanges are generally more generous than the bookies, the best odds you can get on Boris anywhere come from Ladbrokes, which is offering 1/6 (85.7%) on him being the next prime minister.

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Ladbrokes are also offering odds on the next Chancellor. Sajid Javid (pictured) is the favourite, with odds of 4/5 (55.5%). Tied for second place are Liz Truss and Matt Hancock, who are each on 4/1 (20%). Jacob Rees-Mogg and Andrea Leadsom are also in contention at 8/1 (11.1%) and 16/1 (5.9%) respectively. Since I made lots of recommendations a year ago, at markedly different odds, I won't offer any more suggestions.

Ladbrokes is also offering bets on the outcome of Jeremy Corbyn's constituency of Islington North and Johnson's seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip at the next general election.

While I prefer not to make bets where the odds are very short, I think the 1/10 (90.9%) on Labour to win Islington North is worth taking because Corbyn's majority was 33,215 at the last election. Indeed, the last time Labour got less than 50% of the vote in that constituency was in 1983.

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