In the past few days, Labour has inched upwards in the opinion polls towards around 30%. The betting markets are unimpressed, however. Sporting Index has Labour winning 156-162 seats (a mid-point of 159), in line with projections made by political analyst Martin Baxter of 166 seats and Lord Ashcroft's "big data" estimates of 152 to 164, depending on turnout (with a higher turnout favouring Labour). While I think that Labour will end up with more seats than this, I don't feel confident enough to recommend that you start spread betting.
Birmingham Yardley is an even more interesting seat. At the moment it is held by Jess Phillips with a majority of 6,595 over the Liberal Democrats, with the Tories in fourth place behind Ukip (who will be running a candidate again this time). As the area heavily voted to Leave, I think that Labour will have no problem fending off the Lib Dems (especially since the Liberals' national campaign seems to be going nowhere fast), so I'd go with William Hill's 4/7 (63.6%).
MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Finally, there is Redcar. This is another Labour/Liberal Democrat seat in a heavily Leave area. However, given that Labour's majority is over 10,000 votes, and the Liberals only won in 2010, it's a bit of a misnomer to consider it "marginal". Overall, Anna Turley should have absolutely no problem holding onto it, which makes Paddy Power's 2/9 (81.8%) a good value bet.
-
Steve Webb: The triple lock is there to do a job. I’m not embarrassed or ashamed of itThe triple lock means 13 million pensioners will now get an above-inflation state pension boost in April. While the rising cost of the policy has stirred controversy, Steve Webb, who served as pensions minister when it was introduced, argues the triple lock is vital and should stay. Webb speaks to Kalpana Fitzpatrick on the new episode of MoneyWeek Talks – out now.
-
How retirement pots risk running out 11 years early if inflation remains highPension savers could find their retirement income may not last as long as they anticipated over fears that inflation may not slow down
-
Was Margaret Thatcher great for Britain?The 'Iron Lady’ would be celebrating her 100th birthday this month. Margaret Thatcher rose to power in 1979 as the first ever female prime minister and was one of the most controversial leaders in history, but how did her policies shape today’s finances?
-
It’s been 16 years, but the UK economy finally has a chanceOpinion The UK economy has been dealing with one crisis after another since 2007. Policymakers now have a chance to fix some of the underlying problems holding back growth.
-
The “plan for growth”: what Truss and Kwarteng got rightOpinion The Tories’ “plan for growth” has got off to a bad start, but their reforms can still transform Britain
-
Kwasi Kwarteng U-turns on top tax rate decisionNews Kwasi Kwarteng has U-turned on his top tax rate reduction announced in his mini-Budget at the end of September.
-
Investors should get ready for a political revolutionOpinion Liz Truss will beat Rishi Sunak, cut taxes, and then shake up the Bank of England, says Helen Thomas
-
Who will be the next prime minister and what are the bookies’ odds?News The Tory leadership contest is in its final phase. Matthew Partridge reports on the contest and looks at who the bookies’ favourite is.
-
The public may have reached its limit for tax risesEditor's letter The UK tax burden is now at a 70-year high. And, while there may be some reason to hold off on cuts right now, taxes are too high because the state tries to do too much. Perhaps it should do less, says Merryn Somerset Webb.
-
Boris Johnson's exit leaves Britain with a towering in-trayBriefings Britain’s economic problems are rapidly piling up after the last few years of drift and chaos. What should we do first?
