Betting on politics: Labour inches higher
In recent polls, Labour has climbed higher, says Matthew Partridge. The betting markets, however, remain unimpressed.
In the past few days, Labour has inched upwards in the opinion polls towards around 30%. The betting markets are unimpressed, however. Sporting Index has Labour winning 156-162 seats (a mid-point of 159), in line with projections made by political analyst Martin Baxter of 166 seats and Lord Ashcroft's "big data" estimates of 152 to 164, depending on turnout (with a higher turnout favouring Labour). While I think that Labour will end up with more seats than this, I don't feel confident enough to recommend that you start spread betting.
However, one result of the general pessimism surrounding Labour's chances is that you can still get surprisingly good odds on some formerly ultra-safe Labour seats. One such seat is Erith and Thamesmead. In 2015, Labour won the seat with a majority of 9,525, getting just under half of the votes. Given that Ukip will be standing again, it's going to be very hard for the Conservatives to achieve a big enough swing to dislodge sitting MP Teresa Pearce, so I'd grab Paddy Power's 3/10 (76.9%) on Labour winning.
Birmingham Yardley is an even more interesting seat. At the moment it is held by Jess Phillips with a majority of 6,595 over the Liberal Democrats, with the Tories in fourth place behind Ukip (who will be running a candidate again this time). As the area heavily voted to Leave, I think that Labour will have no problem fending off the Lib Dems (especially since the Liberals' national campaign seems to be going nowhere fast), so I'd go with William Hill's 4/7 (63.6%).
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Finally, there is Redcar. This is another Labour/Liberal Democrat seat in a heavily Leave area. However, given that Labour's majority is over 10,000 votes, and the Liberals only won in 2010, it's a bit of a misnomer to consider it "marginal". Overall, Anna Turley should have absolutely no problem holding onto it, which makes Paddy Power's 2/9 (81.8%) a good value bet.
Sign up to Money Morning
Our team, led by award winning editors, is dedicated to delivering you the top news, analysis, and guides to help you manage your money, grow your investments and build wealth.
Matthew graduated from the University of Durham in 2004; he then gained an MSc, followed by a PhD at the London School of Economics.
He has previously written for a wide range of publications, including the Guardian and the Economist, and also helped to run a newsletter on terrorism. He has spent time at Lehman Brothers, Citigroup and the consultancy Lombard Street Research.
Matthew is the author of Superinvestors: Lessons from the greatest investors in history, published by Harriman House, which has been translated into several languages. His second book, Investing Explained: The Accessible Guide to Building an Investment Portfolio, is published by Kogan Page.
As senior writer, he writes the shares and politics & economics pages, as well as weekly Blowing It and Great Frauds in History columns He also writes a fortnightly reviews page and trading tips, as well as regular cover stories and multi-page investment focus features.
Follow Matthew on Twitter: @DrMatthewPartri
-
What the Employment Rights Bill means for your job
New workplace reforms are set to give employees new rights to benefits and flexible working
By Marc Shoffman Published
-
GSK share price surges after $2.2bn Zantac drug settlement
GSK has settled lawsuits in the US that alleged the drugmaker’s now-discontinued heartburn drug Zantac triggered cancer
By Chris Newlands Published