In the past few days, Labour has inched upwards in the opinion polls towards around 30%. The betting markets are unimpressed, however. Sporting Index has Labour winning 156-162 seats (a mid-point of 159), in line with projections made by political analyst Martin Baxter of 166 seats and Lord Ashcroft's "big data" estimates of 152 to 164, depending on turnout (with a higher turnout favouring Labour). While I think that Labour will end up with more seats than this, I don't feel confident enough to recommend that you start spread betting.
Birmingham Yardley is an even more interesting seat. At the moment it is held by Jess Phillips with a majority of 6,595 over the Liberal Democrats, with the Tories in fourth place behind Ukip (who will be running a candidate again this time). As the area heavily voted to Leave, I think that Labour will have no problem fending off the Lib Dems (especially since the Liberals' national campaign seems to be going nowhere fast), so I'd go with William Hill's 4/7 (63.6%).
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Finally, there is Redcar. This is another Labour/Liberal Democrat seat in a heavily Leave area. However, given that Labour's majority is over 10,000 votes, and the Liberals only won in 2010, it's a bit of a misnomer to consider it "marginal". Overall, Anna Turley should have absolutely no problem holding onto it, which makes Paddy Power's 2/9 (81.8%) a good value bet.
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