Betting on politics: Were Rangers relegated?

17-1-26-Rangers-1200 — Did Rangers become a separate entity?

There's an interesting case going through the Scottish courts just now. In 2011 bookie Albert Kinloch bet £100 at 2,500/1 on Rangers football club being relegated from the top Scottish division. The club subsequently went bust and was kicked down to the third division. Kinloch claimed his winnings. However, Coral, which took the original bet, refused to pay up, arguing that they were demoted, rather than relegated, and that, since the original company was wound up by the courts, the new club is technically a separate entity. While this may seem pedantic, Coral stands to lose £250,000 if the judgement goes against the company.

The political betting world isn't immune to such controversies. In 2007 Tradesports (now defunct) refused to pay out on bets on North Korea carrying out a nuclear test. Although widely reported in the media, Tradesports argued that the rules specified that the test had to be confirmed by the US State Department. To be fair, unlike Coral, Tradesports was an exchange so it didn't get any direct benefit from the decision. Indeed, it could credibly argue that settling the bet in the other direction would have been unfair to punters on the other side of the bet.

This could be pertinent to terms of the various Donald Trump markets. Most bookies offer some bet on the new president being impeached, resigning, leaving office or simply not serving his full term. But there are subtle differences between each outcome. Contrary to popular myth, Richard Nixon resigned before the Articles of Impeachment were brought to a vote by either part of Congress.

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Conversely, Clinton was technically "impeached" by the House of Representatives, before being acquitted by the Senate. There's also the outside possibility that something could happen to the 70-year-old Trump. So read the fine print on any bet (Betfair posts its rules alongside every market).