At the Value Investor Conference this week, Kevin Gibson of Eastspring Investments discussed an amusing chart.It showed the path of corporate earnings over time, overlaid with analysts' forecasts of said earnings. Changes in the latter lagged changes in the former by pretty much the same margin all the time. Why? Because most analysts don't read the future, they read the past.
They look at last year's results and assume the next year's will be the same plus a bit. They "echo, they extrapolate, and then they miss the turning points". The same is true of almost everything. In the 1960s it was true of Japan.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
-
What is a trust – and should you use it to avoid inheritance tax?Trusts are surging in popularity as a way to avoid inheritance tax, according to financial advisers on the frontline of estate planning. We look at what trusts are and if they are right for you.
-
What will be the consequences of Donald Trump’s "One Big Beautiful Bill"?The US president’s "One Big Beautiful Bill", an extraordinary mix of tax cuts and spending plans, has made it through both houses of the US Congress. What will be the consequences?
-
How capitalism has been undermined by poor governanceEditor's letter Capitalism’s “ruthless efficiency” has been undermined by poor governance, a lack of competition and central banks’ over-enthusiastic money printing, says Andrew Van Sickle.
-
The biggest change in the last 17 years – the death of the “Greenspan put”Editor's letter Since I joined MoneyWeek 17 years ago, says John Stepek, we’ve seen a global financial crisis, a eurozone sovereign debt crisis , several Chinese growth scares, a global pandemic, and a land war in Europe. But the biggest change is the death of the “Greenspan put”.
-
Things won't just return to normal – that's not how inflation worksEditor's letter You might think that, if inflation is indeed “transitory”, we just need to wait and everything will return to “normal”. But this is a grave misunderstanding of how inflation works, says John Stepek.
-
Car hire and the strangeness of the post-pandemic economyEditor's letter A global shortage of hire cars and unusually high hotel occupancy rates sum up the post-pandemic global economy in a nutshell, says Merryn Somerset Webb, with enhanced demand meeting restricted supply.
-
Everything is getting more expensive – including moneyEditor's letter Investors are about to start feeling rather more pain, says Merryn Somerset Webb – from the rising price of money.
-
We may be heading for recession – and it will be no ordinary recessionEditor's letter Just as the downturn in 2020 was not a typical recession. the next downturn could be very different too, says Merryn Somerset Webb.
-
What companies should be prioritising this decadeEditor's letter In a world beset by uncertainty, companies should be prioritising slack over efficiency, says Merryn Somerset Webb.
-
Inflation could soon start to hurtEditor's letter Inflation is not going away. And with people's wages not keeping up, things are going to start to hurt, says Merryn Somerset Webb.
