Japan hits a speed bump

The country's growth has disappointed analysts, but investors should stick with Japan.

Andrew Van Sickle
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published
in News

Japan's GDP grew by 0.3% in the final quarter of 2013, according to a first estimate the same pace as in the previous three months and around half the figure most analysts had expected. Japan has grown for four quarters in a row now, but the second half of 2013 was far weaker than the first.

Has Abenomics', the economic revitalisation programme launched under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe after his election in December 2012, run out of steam?

What the commentators said

The drag on GDP stemmed from trade, where a 0.4% rise in exports was overwhelmed by a 3.5% jump in imports. Despite the falling yen making their goods a third cheaper than two years ago, exporters haven't shifted much extra, said Phillip Inman in The Guardian. Meanwhile, the government's efforts to stimulate domestic demand "have sparked an imports binge".

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Still, the drag from trade should pass. When a currency falls, import prices rise immediately, but it takes time for exporters to gain market share. Some of the import surge is due to consumers buying ahead of a VAT hike in April. And the improving world economy will raise exports.

Meanwhile, on the domestic front, the Bank of Japan has made it clear it will print more money if need be. The government has thrown its weight behind more generous wage settlements, which would underpin consumption later this year, said the Financial Times.

Abe has to give "some muscle to his structural reforms agenda" if the recovery is to be sustained. Proposals to break up monopolies, loosen regulation and liberalise the labour market have yet to be turned into action. For now, however, investors should stick with Japan.

Andrew Van Sickle
Andrew Van Sickle
Editor, MoneyWeek

Andrew is the editor of MoneyWeek magazine. He grew up in Vienna and studied at the University of St Andrews, where he gained a first-class MA in geography & international relations.

After graduating he began to contribute to the foreign page of The Week and soon afterwards joined MoneyWeek at its inception in October 2000. He helped Merryn Somerset Webb establish it as Britain’s best-selling financial magazine, contributing to every section of the publication and specialising in macroeconomics and stockmarkets, before going part-time.

His freelance projects have included a 2009 relaunch of The Pharma Letter, where he covered corporate news and political developments in the German pharmaceuticals market for two years, and a multiyear stint as deputy editor of the Barclays account at Redwood, a marketing agency.

Andrew has been editing MoneyWeek since 2018, and continues to specialise in investment and news in German-speaking countries owing to his fluent command of the language.

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