Economy: Prescient bear David Rosenberg is still gloomy

Economist David Rosenberg, who predicted the credit and housing busts, says that the odds of a V-shaped recovery are "pretty close to zero".

David Rosenberg, chief economist at Toronto asset manager Gluskin Sheff and Associates, has been one of the few "voices of reason warning of the excesses" of the housing and credit boom and predicting the "unravelling" we are now seeing, says Edward Harrison on Creditwritedowns.com.

Now he says that the odds of a V-shaped recovery are "pretty close to zero". This isn't a normal post-war recession: the bursting of the credit bubble marked the end of 25 years of credit expansion, and having gorged on debt, the economy will take time to work it off. History shows that the impact of periods of credit contraction and asset-price deflation tends to "last for years not months".

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